3+ Seasons With 700+ PA & OPS+ >= 100
Posted by Steve Lombardi on May 9, 2011
How many players have 3+ seasons of 700+ PA with an OPS+ of 100 or better?
Here's the list:
.
So, Rose has the record for switchers, and, Ichiro has the record for lefties. Can Jeter break the tie for most seasons by a righty? Age may be working against him.
May 9th, 2011 at 10:29 am
i guess that seals it...markakis > pujols
for real , didn't realize ichiro had that strong of an OPS+ history. a bit in doubt this year though
May 9th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Zuke, you impress easily. I don't consider 100 to be very strong for a right fielder.
Anyway, I think this list is more about being pretty durable in/on higher-offense eras/teams and batting at/near the top of the order a lot than anything else. I see a ton of sluggers that batted 3/4 and went out there every day during the high offense era a decade ago.
Anyway, Ichiro's only been hurt pretty much the one time. Maris only got 698 PAs in '61 while playing in 161 games, starting 160, finishing 148. Those '61 Yankees' 827 runs would be second in baseball in 2010 (to, of course, the 2010 Yankees).
May 9th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
If you change the OPS+ number to 150 it's a much shorter list:
6 times - Gehrig
4 times - A-Rod, Sosa, Bagwell, Musial
3 times - Pujols and Frank Thomas (aka Big Hurt)
2 times - Delgado, Belle, Mattingly, Boggs, Frank Howard, Greenberg, Klein, and Hornsby
1 time - 46 players
A list about positive offensive accomplishments without the Babe - thought it was impossible. But then the Babe only had 699 PAs (with a 238 OPS+) in 1923, 693 PAs (with a 238 OPS+) in 1921, and 691 PAs (with a 225 OPS+) in 1927.
May 9th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
The 700-PA threshold obviously skews the results towards:
-- Top-of-the-order hitters;
-- High-scoring teams;
-- Teams playing a 162-game schedule (69% of all modern 700-PA seasons have come since 1961); and
-- AL teams in the DH era (58% of all 700-PA seasons from 1973-2010 have come in the AL).
May 9th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
No matter which number you look at, 100 or 150, the players of the list are generally hose you would put on a list of great or very good players. So, it seems to me the stat confirms what a fan would think.
http://pinetarandbrickbats.blogspot.com/2011/05/baseballs-mobile-connection.html
May 9th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
@1 - when I saw the title, Ichiro was actually the first player to come to my mind.
May 9th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
"didn't realize ichiro had that strong of an OPS+ history. a bit in doubt this year though"
Why do you say that? He's currently running a 107 OPS+ despite something of a slow start (his average was only .250 as of April 18th). And despite said slow start, he's on a pace to get his usual 200+ hits. What disturbs me as a Mariners fan is the fact that he's not getting as many putouts as usual--possibly because he's cheating into he gap with Guti out and there have been a lot of balls close to the line that he might have had if he'd been playing at his usual position.
May 9th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Also, somebody had to say it:
Lu Blue...who?
May 9th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Conversely, Pete Rose also had Two seasons of 700+ P.A. with an ops+ less than 100. Giving Rose 700+ P.A. at first base in '82 probably cost the Phillies the Eastern Division. Cal Ripken also had two seasons of 700 P.A. with an Ops+ lower than 100
Dave Cash & Omar Moreno both had (3) 700 P.A. seasons with an ops+ lower than 100.
May 9th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Interesting to see three great-hitting shortstops near the top of the list although an OPS+ >=100 doesn't do them justice. It's almost hard to remember the Bert Campaneris's and Mark Belanger's of the past when shortstops weren't expected to hit.
I don't think the OPS+ cut-off is high enough to make things interesting. As the list stands it is primarily, I think, a testament to staying injury-free more than any other great individual accomplishment. That must be why Ken Griffey and Barry Bonds, surprisingly, had only 3 of these seasons.
Doubtful, I believe, that Jeter will make the 700+ PA this year although he hits near the top for a good offensive team.
May 9th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Yeah Neil, Jeter's not making 700 PAs this year.
What he needs to do is get hot so he can get #3000 on June 9th.
Yesterday's performance notwithstanding Jeter was seriously looking like he was going to have to pull a Griffey, Jr. and I don't put much stock in 4 ABs from one game.
May 9th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
I'm curious how this would look if instead of PA>=700, you used PA>=4.32 (Team Games Played). I hate stats that are biased toward an era simply on the basis of games played.
May 9th, 2011 at 5:52 pm
@10, that's Bobby. The most PAs Barry ever had were 697, 690, and 679. Always missed a few games.
May 9th, 2011 at 5:59 pm
@ 12
What does "pulling a Ken Griffey Jr. " mean?
May 9th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
@14 - Was wondering that too.
Maybe it looked like Jete was going to fall asleep in the dugout. No wait, that was Torre. Griff fell asleep in the clubhouse in a comfy easy chair, which, really, could happen to anyone.
May 9th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
@13
Thanks, Balburgh, it is Bobby. I looked quickly and assumed Barry.
Not even a Freudian slip.
So why did Barry never make 700 PA?
May 9th, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Barry played in the NL.
Barry spent most of his career batting 3rd or 4th (as opposed to 1st or 2nd)
Barry came out of a lot of blowout games, and during the latter half of his career often came out in the late innings for rest, and took days off.
Barry played in pitchers parks.
May 9th, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Neil L, re: why Barry never reached 700 PAs: Many things put him at a disadvantage:
-- Playing in the NL.
-- Batting 3rd through 5th most of his career. (I'd forgotten, but Barry hit mainly 5th in 1990-91 and '93.) He did lead off in 1987-89, but that was a very different offensive era; only players who played virtually every game and hit leadoff for top offenses reached 700 PAs in that period.
-- Missing games: In 17 of his 22 seasons, Barry played no more than 153 games. Over 88% of NL 700-PA seasons had at least 154 games played.
-- Missing parts of games: I never noticed this before, but Barry never played more than 142 complete games in a season. Even in his 20s, he would often come out of 15 or more games before they ended.
-- Rarely being on a top offensive team.
May 9th, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Beaten to the punch again! Well done, Jimbo.
May 9th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
@18 @19
Jimbo, John Autin, in the NL, because of the pitcher batting and weakening the offense, what is the normalized number of PA in a season compared to the AL. I suggest maybe 8 to 10, near the top of the order?!
May 9th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
Neil L -- Sorry, but that's more cut-and-paste / Excel work than I feel like doing right now. I did run the 2010 numbers, and the difference was much smaller than I expected. The biggest difference was 5.0 PAs in the #1 spot, and the average for all 9 spots was only 2.2 PAs. I may be wrong, but my gut says that's a one-year aberration rather than a norm.
May 9th, 2011 at 11:53 pm
I think John Q (@9) has the more interesting idea - which players managed to rack up 700 PA multiple times despite a sub-100 OPS+? Bobby Richardson had three of those seasons, Jimmy Rollins had 4, Juan Pierre has had 5.
May 10th, 2011 at 3:16 am
@8.
I'm with Harlock. Who is Lu Blue?
His highest similarity score is only 884, so something of a unique (or, at least, unusual) player. His recent comparables are Mark Grace and, especially, Mike Hargrove.
Scored a ton of runs (6 times over 100 runs, 10 times over 80) throughout his 12-year career. Also drew a lots walks (100+ walks in each of his 700 PA seasons plus in a 678 PA season).
You learn something new everyday.
May 10th, 2011 at 4:58 am
I misread the article title at first and thought it was OPS+ BELOW 100 and 3 names immediately popped into my head. But I see that John Q @ 9 and Jerry @ 22 addressed the issue already. Omar Moreno, Juan Pierre and Bobby Richardson were the 3 that I had thought of. Interesting to consider from either direction. I see that in addition to Pete Rose & Cal Ripken, Jimmy Rollins is also on both lists.
And Doug @ 23 and Harlock @ 8- Lu Blue actually came up not long ago in a post not long ago in an article about fewest home runs in a 100 RBI season, I think it was. Lu never quite qualified (the most RBI's he ever had in a season was 94) but he was, as you point out, a very unique and valuable player.
May 10th, 2011 at 5:02 am
@14, @15
pulling a griffey i believe post #11 means retiring near the start of the season b/c it's not panning out. I think that's ridiculous b/c these are different situations.... but in any case i think that's what he meant.
May 10th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
As several people have already commented above, 700 PA is an awfully high bar to clear. In only three of the past ten years in the AL has the #10 leader in PA cleared 700 PA's. In the 154-game era, it was not unusual for the leader to fall short of 700 PA as well. I think a more reasonable minimum PA level would be 650 PA. Of course, the list would be a lot longer.
May 10th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
@22, Gerry, @24 Hartvig,
I didn't realize Rollins had 4 and Pierre had 5.
You can kind of excuse Rollins & Ripken because they played important defensive positions and they played them well plus Rollins was a good % base stealer.
Pierre just seems like a mess of a player. He doesn't walk enough for a guy with no power and then he was a terrible base stealer. He led the league in Caught Stealing 7 times! It really comes down to the opinion of his defense. TZ is rather down on Defense while UZR thinks he's rather good overall.
Richardson couldn't really hit other than 1962 and he didn't draw walks and he was kind of an average 2b.
Giving Moreno & Cash 700+ PA wasn't a great idea either.
The worst to me was giving Pete Rose 700+ P.A. all those years. Rose was essentially a 40+ 1B who was poor defender with no power and didn't draw walks.
Rose was second in the majors in PA from 1979-1983 with 3222 a 101 ops+ and had a .9 WAR for 5 seasons! And Rose had a 2.5 WAR in 1979 so he was essentially replacement level after that.
The only reason Rose broke Cobb's record was because the Phillies were dumb enough to give him 3222 plate appearances at First Base from 1979-1983. Then on top of it they paid Rose a fortune. And I never bought the whole "he taught us how win" line. That was a veteran team that won with a replacement level 1b. Then to make matters worse the traded Ryne Sandberg & Lonnie Smith before the '82 season.
May 10th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Lu Blue -- just another underrated and forgotten Tigers star!
For the 11 years 1921-31, Blue's .405 OBP ranked 12th among all players with at least 3,000 PAs in that span.
One of the few 1Bs to enjoy a long career as a leadoff hitter, a role in which he averaged 131 runs per 162 G.
One of 5 modern players with a career OBP over .400 and OBP > SLG (joining Ferris Fain, Max Bishop, Eddie Stanky and Roy Thomas). (Min. 3,000 PAs)
May 10th, 2011 at 11:51 pm
John Q -- Pete Rose drew lots of walks. Furthermore:
-- He was only a 1B in one of those 700-PA seasons.
-- His average OBP in those 13 seasons was about .390, in an era when that was a terrific mark.
-- He was a very good offensive player in 2 of those Phillies years. In 1979, he led the NL with a .418 OBP and had a 130 OPS+. In 1981, he had a .391 OBP and 119 OPS+.
I don't understand what you have against Rose as a player. Yes, he was a replacement-level player when he broke Cobb's record. Many (if not most) players who break major career records or reach the biggest milestones are no longer good players by that time. And if Philly hadn't given him a chance to play full-time for those 5 years, many other teams would have done so.
May 11th, 2011 at 1:58 am
@29, John A.
Valid point on Rose drawing walks. I thought his walk rate had gone down from 1979-1983.
I wasn't referring to Rose's 13 seasons on Steve's list, I was referring to Two seasons Rose had 1980 & 1982 where he had 700+ P.A. and Ops+ less than 100. Rose had a 94 ops+ in 1980 and a 90 ops+ in 1982. Those are horrible seasons for a 1B and to compound things he received 700+ P.A. in each season.
And I was mostly referring to Rose's career from 1979-83 with the Phillies but also his career from 1980-1986.
Rose was essentially shot as a full-time player by 1980 and making him a full time First Basemen was just dumb. Essentially it would be like the Mets making Luis Castillo their full time First-basemen in 2008 and giving him 700 P.A. at 1b. and to make matters worse Rose was one of the highest paid players in baseball.
Rose from 1980-1986 had 3685 plate appearances almost exclusively at First Base and put up a line of .274/.354/.333 with an ops+ 92 and 6 Home Runs!! And to make matters worse he was a terrible defensive player. 3685 plate appearances and a Negative (-1.4) WAR for the years 1980-1986. That's just a horrible no other way around it.
He was able to play because Free Agency was brand new and G.M's weren't very savvy about productivity and cost. Even his decent 1979 was a waste of money. Rose had a 2.5 WAR in '79 but was paid something like $900, 000 which was just an insane amount of money back then. I think Rose was one of the top 3 highest paid players in '79.
May 11th, 2011 at 11:20 am
@30, John Q -- Fair enough. Rose was overpaid by the Phillies, and as a 1B, he was a subpar player on both sides of the ball (though the Castillo analogy won't hold for Rose's Philly years).
I can still understand why the Phillies signed him to that deal. First, you can't overstate Rose's stature in the game after '78. He had the 44-game hitting streak; he had 3,164 career hits with a .310 BA and .379 OBP; he was a 12-time All-Star; and he'd been in 5 NLCS and 4 WS in the past 9 years. Second, the Phils had been crushed in 3 straight NLCS, and perhaps some cynicism was taking hold among the fan base; and of course Rose had that "winning aura." I don't necessarily put much stock in symbolic moves, but I can at least understand this one. And I do think that Rose had some value to the Phillies besides his numbers.
May 11th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
John Q -
Did Juan Pieree refuse to sign an autograph for you when you were a kid?
Regarding your critique of him being caught stealing so often... It appears you fail to recognize the logic that the fastest runners, those who are among the league leaders in steals, will also be those who are among those caught most often. So - as previously posted on the Juan Pierre link, here is a list of players that Pierre trails on the career caught stealing list.
1. Rickey Henderson 335
2. Lou Brock 307
3. Brett Butler 257
4. Ty Cobb 212
5. Maury Wills 208
6. Bert Campaneris 199
7. Eddie Collins 195
8. Rod Carew 187
9. Otis Nixon 186
10. Omar Moreno 182
11. Juan Pierre 181
I guess he fooled a lot of managers.
May 11th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
@31 John A,
You're right about the Castillo analogy with Mets. A closer Castillo analogy would be Castillo on the Marlins/Twins from '02-06 when he had a 98 ops+
Rose from 1979-1983 had a an ops+ of 101. You can barely find a find first basemen with an ops+ in that vicinity. I only found 3 first basemen with an ops+ between 98-104 with at least 1200 P.A, Rose, Perez, and Wayne Gross.
The guys you find in that vicinity are guys like Lamar Johnson, Jorge Orta, Leon Roberts, B. Mcbride, D. Lopes, Charlie Moore, Phil Garner, Jim Gantner, and Al Bumbry.
Rose signed a $3.2 million dollar four year contract after '78 which made him the highest paid player in the history of team sports. In retrospect signing a 39 year old defensively challenged player with no power to be your full time First Basemen was a terrible idea. I'm not sure what they paid him in '83 or what was the contract status.
I can understand it in retrospect because free agency was new and They really didn't even think about cost vs. productivity and aging patterns and so forth. But, the Phillies were a veteran team and really didn't need Rose. Schimdt was in his prime and Carlton was going to rattle off a bunch of great seasons. They just needed a league average 1B like a Dan Driessen type.
They didn't win in '79. Rose was terrible in '80 and they won anyway because of the huge seasons by Schmidt & Carlton and the fact that the NL EAST was kind of weak. The Expos should have won in '80 if D. Williams just didn't bat Rodney Scott second all year. Rose did play well in the '80 playoffs.
The strike probably helped the 41 year old Rose by giving him 6 weeks off. They lost to the Expos in the first NLDS.
They traded Lonnie SMith & Ryne Sandberg after '81 which were huge mistakes.
Playing Rose probably cost them the '82 Eastern division.
He was terrible in '83 and was benched during the second half of the season. He played well in the NLCS and then threw his manager under the bus when he was benched in game 3 of the WS against Baltimore.
He was released shortly after that.
May 11th, 2011 at 5:32 pm
@32, JohnBoy -- That list of caught stealing totals tells us ... what, exactly? It certainly doesn't tell us how effective the player was at stealing bases. For that, we need the success rate.
Of the 10 players with more CS than Pierre:
-- 4 had a higher success rate than Pierre (Henderson, Nixon, Campaneris, Brock);
-- 4 had a lower success rate (Wills, Moreno, Butler, Carew); and
-- 2 had an unknown success rate, since CS were not recorded during much of their career (Cobb, Collins).
But why limit the comparison to the CS leaders? I would rather look at the success rates of the post-1950 SB leaders, for whom we have all the CS data.
Since 1951, 31 players have at least 400 SB. Pierre ranks 24th with a 74.6% career success rate, 3 percentage points below both the median and the average.