73 Responses to “265+ HR Through Age 31 Season”

1. Daniel Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 11:58 am

   I'm kind of blown away how many Jimmie Fox had -- more than 60 ahead of Aaron and almost 100 ahead of Mays! He would have cleared 800 if he had the late career of Aaron or Ruth.

2. Yankillaz Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:02 pm

   Notable Failures:

   Juan Gonzalez ---- Steroids
   Andruw Jones ---- Forgot to hit. Still in progress.

   The everything seems normal.

3. The Legendary Frank King Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:15 pm

   @ #2

   You could tag half this list with the "Steroids" tag. Especially the guy right at the top. If you want to go that route, it amazes me that nobody took a serious look at these numbers and what was happening to power in the 1990's.

   When I was younger, I always thought Griffey would end up the HR King. Maybe if he had injected more HGH or that Gorilla Testosterone that A-Rod shoots up with he would have hit more as he got closer to 40.

4. Danny D Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:16 pm

   Surprised to not see Bagwell on that list, apparently he just missed by 2 HR as he had 263 through his age 31 season.

5. Johnny Twisto Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:18 pm

   Or maybe if he ever bothered to stretch or put any effort into keeping in shape, he would have hit more too.

6. Johnny Twisto Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:18 pm

   (Referring to Griffey)

7. Timmy p Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:22 pm

   @3 I tell you, the New York media is willing to look the other way for ARod, just like they are trying to pretend that Andy Pettitte didn't use steroids. ARod has developed man breasts because of the female hormones he takes to balance the roids. As far as I'm concerned ARod is the biggest phony in sports today.

8. Jacob Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:22 pm

   Only guy that has a shot to join the list this year is Miguel Cabrera, who has 260 in his Age 28 season.

   Prince Fielder will probably be next, he's at 211 in his Age 27 season.

9. Timmy p Says:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:26 pm

   @5 Good point about Griffey, I think he might have been a little lazy. He was a natural no doubt about it, and I think the game was easy for him and he took for granted it always would be. He was hurt often for several of his prime years, and that hurt him.

10. Rich Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    @ 7 Pettitte didn't use steroids technically

11. Mike S. Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    @7: Just like the Boston media looks the other way on Ortiz? Let's not forget the revelation in the summer of 2009 that Ortiz is on that list of 103 or so players.

12. DavidRF Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:41 pm

    Lots of guys hit a wall when they turned 30 (or not long after). Foxx, Mathews, Mantle, Gonzalez, Kiner, Bench, Colavito, Rice, Santo, Powell, Green, Allen. There's a different explanation for almost all of those guys. Age, weight, injuries, steroids, attitude, etc.

    Other guys like Ripken and Banks played a long time after 30 but weren't really the same player afterwards.

13. Timmy p Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    @11 I love Ortiz, and of all the guys that got fingered for PED's, I think he probably needed it least, or didn't use it much. I still think he is disqualified for the HoF. And Rich is right it was HGH for Pettitte. Manny, Sosa, Giambi, Pudge, Sheffield, Clemens, Tejada, Juan G., Bonds, McGwire, Bonds, Santo, all don't get into the hall because of PED's!

14. Spartan Bill Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    The age 31 cut off captured Dale Murphy;s last good season. After that 1987, I believe Bill James favorite Toy said he was slightly better than a 50-50 shot at hitting 500 HR, but it was all downhill after that.

15. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:50 pm

    20+ years ago, Bill James wrote a series of articles on which players were "ahead" of the pace of the record-holders in the major offensive categories. Foxx and Matthews were the only ones ahead of Aaron's HR pace into their early thirties.

    Of course both of them started fading at age 32/33 - that shows how hard it is to get close to any major record (both more than 200 HR short); ten years ago, lots of people assumed that Junior Griffey would pass 755 career HR's. It's not that easy, folks.

16. Todd Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:52 pm

    A-Rod has actually been savaged by the New York media over the years, including for his use of PEDs. I'm not sure what else they are supposed to do. I guess they could write daily columns on the subject, but I think most fans have moved on, just as they have for the dozens of other players who have either tested positive or confessed to using PEDs. In addition, A-Rod hit .358 with 36 HRs as a skinny 21-year-old, so unless he was using then it seems unlikely that much, if any, of his power came through the use of PEDs.

17. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:54 pm

    I love Ortiz, and of all the guys that got fingered for PED's, I think he probably needed it least, or didn't use it much.

    That's objective. Sure, why would a 27-year-old who had never played a full season and just got non-tendered need them more than the #1 pick in the draft?

    Santo

    Insulin? Makes sense to me, that treatment was available to diabetics of decades earlier.

18. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:55 pm

    Was *not* available.

19. Timmy p Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:58 pm

    @16 Disagree! The New York media has nicked him only when it was unavoidable, then they revive him because he has a guaranteed contract that nobody else would want at this point in his career. SOME fans have moved on my friend, but not the kind of fan that pours over stats like it's the Bible. The fans that keep score at games and use stats to compare Giambi to Hack Wilson have not moved on.

20. Paul E Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 12:59 pm

    " In addition, A-Rod hit .358 with 36 HRs as a skinny 21-year-old, so unless he was using then it seems unlikely that much, if any, of his power came through the use of PEDs."

    Technically, it was his "age 20" season

21. Timmy p Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:02 pm

    @17 I was just testing you about Ronnie Santo, making sure your paying attention. I'm a Cub fan and I think Ronnie was the best 3rd baseman in the NL for at least 10 years.

22. Hartvig Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:33 pm

    I think the biggest post steroids era fallout that we're going to see is a lot of players careers flaming out in their mid-30's plus or minus a year or 2 and a lot of these contracts sign thru when a player is in his late 30's or even early 40's in some cases are going to be huge problems for some franchises. There have always been a few freaks of nature or conditioning like Jamie Moyer or Omar Vizquel who could keep playing seemingly forever and a few of the greatest were injury free enough to still be fairly effective into their early 40's (Wagner/Williams/Spahn/Mays) but if I were a GM right now I wouldn't sign anyone (except maybe Albert Pujols) to a multiyear contract beyond their 35th birthday.

23. howard rosen Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:35 pm

    Ron santo may well not be in the Hall because of steroids. His numbers just don't look all that impressive today compared to the ridiculous numbers put up by the steroid users.

24. Fred Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 1:49 pm

    Another indication that Ron Santo should have been in the Hall a LONG LONG time ago. I grew up a Cub fan - my dad and mom died Cub fans, mom right after they lost in 84 - and Santo was as good as there was at third. Writers drooling over Robinson and laughing at the Cubs and Wrigley's hurt him then while stubbornness and stupidity prevented his selection in later years. He numbers were on a par with both Matthews and Robinson except for Eddie's homers and he did it all as a diabetic at a time when management of that wasn't very well done while playing for the worst team in the league. Had he been a Yankee or Dodger he'd have been in the Hall long ago,
    It's a shame and the writers should be ashamed of themselves

25. Chris Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:07 pm

    Re: TimmyP - so Ortiz used PED but "didn't use them much"? Is this TimmyP or Bill Simmons?

    Seems ludicrous to me to attempt to qualify or exonerate your favorite users by how much they may or may not have used. Boorish players like ARod and Bonds get raked over the coals; Papi and Pettitte get a pass because they're more likeable.

26. Pat D Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:11 pm

    @23

    Sorry, but you can't really blame steroids for keeping Ron Santo out of the Hall of Fame. He first appeared on the ballot in 1980, long before the steroid era. Santo only got 3.9% of the vote that year, and then was off the ballot until they let some guys back on in 1985. He was on the ballot from 1985-1998, polling between 13.4% and 43.1%.

    So you could make a case that his later years on the ballot might have been hurt by the offensive explosion, but I think you can more clearly blame unenlightened voters during the 80's and 90's more so than anything else.

    And I still fully expect him to be elected on the "Golden Era" Veteran's Committee ballot this coming winter.

27. Dukeofflatbush Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:11 pm

    @ Hartvig,

    It is generally assumed Albert Pujols is closer to 35 right now then 31. I think The Cardinals did not want to sell the farm to sign him for just that reason.
    I also think Pujols had or is using PEDs. Just my opinion. But from just looking at that guy, he has the body type of a steroid user.
    Ozzie Guillen pointed out the dilemma of a great deal of latin players, who are misguided by scouts and have much easier access to PEDs, especially in the Dominican Republic.
    But we shouldn't assume the entire league is clean because of testing. Just remember, it was only a few years ago Balco had developed undetectable steroids. And Lance Armstrong has been chased to the limit by biking community, ratted on by teammates and friends, and yet he has not yielded one positive test.

28. Timmy p Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:33 pm

    @25 Great points, Papi and Pettitte are more likable no doubt, but if you read what I said, both can NOT be in the HoF. You have to take the bad with the good and both cheated. As far as Pujols, I had never heard he was closer to 35, and from what I understand, since 9/11 it is all most impossible to lie about your age no matter what country you come from. I have wondered about Pujols and steroids, but it seems unlikely that he and he alone has figured out a way to cheat the tests. I don't believe he is on steroids.

29. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:37 pm

    he has the body type of a steroid user.

    I don't know, he looks a lot bigger than Alex Sanchez to me.

30. Timmy p Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:53 pm

    @23 Howard - Not only that, but Ronnie played in a the pitcher dominated '60's and there was many a hitter that had his stats neutered because of the high mound and Gibson and Koufax.

31. Chris Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 2:59 pm

    Never said anything about HOF for Papi or Andy; just take exception to those who minimize cheaters because *you* think they only cheated a little bit. Maybe you're a Sox fan, maybe you just like Papi (both defensible positions!) But there's really no evidence to suggest he only used a little bit.

32. Corey Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:21 pm

    What about Adam Dunn #15 on this list. Pretty impressive.

33. Doug Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:42 pm

    Sort the list by the "To" column. You will see 32 of the names (over half) had careers that are active or ended within the past 20 years (since 1992).

    Expansion and PEDs to be sure. Will have to do some calculations to gauge how much PEDs may have over-represented the recent past.

34. Gregg Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    Duke Snider only finished with 407, after clubbing 331 by age 31.

35. Aryeh Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 3:47 pm

    You guys aren't really suggesting that everyone implicated with steroids should be left out of the Hall, are you? You can't just have a 15 year gap in the HOF.

36. AndrewN Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm

    You'll notice that the big reason Arod is at the top of this list is that he started playing so young. Check the games played column, and try dividing by homers hit to a get a list of HR-rate through age-31 and you'll get a different list entirely. Pujols and Ruth both pull ahead of Arod, and if Bonds doesn't, well...he's a historical aberration with so much more power at the front end than the back end of his career.

37. Josh Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:32 pm

    Richie Sexson hit 273 through age 31, but only 33 more after that. Juan Gonzalez was at 397 and finished at 434. Most dramatically, Troy Glaus was at 304 and finished at 320.

38. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:07 pm

    @35, Aryeh -- Why can't we have a 15-year gap in the HOF?

    I'm not necessarily endorsing that position. But if the best objective analysis leads to the conclusion that a player strongly implicated in steroid use should not be in the HOF, why should that conclusion be overturned by a desire to avoid a 15-year gap? HOF inductees serve no tangible purpose but to give HOF visitors more plaques to gaze upon and provide an annual reason for HOF members to get together on a hotel porch. Both of those are nice, but not necessary. And after all, there have been several years in which no one was inducted.

39. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    It provides an annual reason for thousands of fans to go to Cooperstown and spend money. If the BBWAA decides not to elect anyone, the HOF will find a new electorate which will.

40. Pat D Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:29 pm

    @34

    I think the switch from Ebbets Field to Dodger Stadium had quite a bit to do with that.

41. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 5:32 pm

    @38? John Autin Says: "...@35, Aryeh -- Why can't we have a 15-year gap in the HOF?... ... And after all, there have been several years in which no one was inducted."

    Why, John A.? - because the actual Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown is an ongoing business venture, in an actual set of buildings, that needs many visitors during its yearly Induction Week to maintain its revenue stream. No inductions for one year, perhaps, but I can't see the HOF Board of Directors allowing that to go on for a number of years.

    Besides (practically speaking) there are more than enough qualified, relatively "clean" players, that there won't be any gaps in electing players, not even one year. To start, you could vote in one/year from the current backlog of Larkin/ Trammell/ Raines, and do just fine for a few years.

42. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:00 pm

    JT @39 and Lawrence @41, aren't you mixing up "should" and "would"?

    Aryeh's question asked: "You guys aren't really suggesting that everyone implicated with steroids should be left out of the Hall, are you? You can't just have a 15 year gap in the HOF." (emphasis mine) He's asking a question of right and wrong -- not one of politics.

    I maintain that the BBWAA and anyone else voting in the HOF election should not be motivated by anything beyond that player's credentials; they should not let their votes be swayed because the Otesaga Hotel needs bookings.

43. Scott Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:09 pm

    Santo also played at Wrigley which sort of balances out the pitching era he played in. Still belong on the HOF

    Whenever I see Dave Kingman on a HR list of any kind I wonder what the HOF would have done if that guy hit 58 more home runs. Pre steroid era, how do you keep a guy out with 500 home runs?

44. Mike S. Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:51 pm

    @ 43. When your career batting average is .236, that's how.

45. Ron Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 7:24 pm

    Ron Santo was a very good ballplayer,but not a Hall of Famer.

46. John Autin Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 8:01 pm

    @43, Scott -- There's a first time for many things. Kong wasn't getting near the HOF with 500 HRs.

    Speaking of HOF precedents ... I'm rooting for Johnny Damon to get 3,000 hits so that we can be done with that as an "automatic" HOF qualifier.

    (Or am I wrong in assuming that Damon gets rejected by the HOF voters?)

47. KJ Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 8:14 pm

    @38

    "...if the best objective analysis leads to the conclusion that a player strongly implicated in steroid use should not be in the HOF..."

    And there is the blurred line in the steriods/Hall debate. John, what are you referring to by "objective analysis"? That a specific player used? Or that having used, he should or should not be in the Hall?

    (I'd say objective is tricky on both counts.)

    But, can we please eliminate all judgment (objective or subjective) in this?

    It is my belief, that since MLB/Selig et al, shamelessly looked the other way during this era, that makes MLB is MORE responsible as the players. MLB could have policed the steroid problem, and chose not to. Because of this, steroid use should NOT be a consideration when voting to enshrine. Admit, clearly and loudly that this happened. Instead of hanging individual players out to dry.

    Note how baseball has openly acknowledged its past segregationist ways . You don't ignore it. (keeping players out of the Hall) You acknowledge it. You say, "This was the steriod era. Here is what happened. Here is how we lost our way. Here is how we fixed it. Here are the players who excelled during this time."

    Just like the dead ball era, fans will be able to adjust those numbers for themselves (like a personal OPS+).

    Otherwise, to use steroid as criteria for HOF consideration, it becomes an endless debate of who used, how much, and were they HOF qualified before? Who is popular? Who is contrite? It's endlessly subjective.

48. KJ Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 8:23 pm

    @ 41 Lawrence

    "besides...there are more than enough qualified, relatively 'clean' players"

    And there's my point about subjectivity.

    relatively clean

    There is term that can never be quantified and endlessly debated.

49. DavidRF Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 9:36 pm

    @47
    I'm with KJ. The moral high road in these debates seems artificial to me. Where were the calls for more testing and enforcement back in the 90s and early 00s? It was a high-offense era for 'clean' players anyways and we've had high offense eras before (1890s, 1920s-30s).

    Voting is going to be a mess in the next few years. Crowded ballots were going to create a consensus problem anyways, but this PED issue is going to split the voting even more.

50. MikeN Says:
    June 13th, 2011 at 10:10 pm

    David Ortiz don't use no steroids man.

    He just took some vitamin drinks and it got him tagged as a positive. He didn't know about it until the media reports came out.

    David Ortiz don't use no steroids.

51. Jeff Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 12:19 am

    @43

    Kingman could have hit 600 home runs and he still wouldn't have made it to the HOF. Bad attitude, .236 batting average, and a terrible walk to strikeout ratio. A .302 lifetime OBP? Where does that rank him? The guy at #999 all time, the immortal Moose Solters, finished with a .334 OBP.

    Even with all the power Kingman had, he didn't put people on the edge of their seats like his contemporary, Reggie Jackson. Even when Reggie struck out, it was exciting! When Kingman struck out, it was: "Hand me the remote control."

52. The Legendary Frank King Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 12:21 am

    I'm glad WHERE these HR was hit has been brought up. A-Roid, Gonzalez and Teixeira would have hit a lot of these out in Arlington, a notorious wind tunnel. Are there any other parks that really stand out on this list?

53. Cheese Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 1:03 am

    'He was hurt often for several of his prime years, and that hurt him.'

    heh, no pun intended, right?!!? lol

54. Pat D Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 1:10 am

    @46

    I think Johnny Damon has a better HOF case then you might think. That being said, I don't think he makes it unless he gets to 3000 hits. He'd be far from the worst player inducted.

55. Thomas Court Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:19 am

    I think Damon has a decent chance at making the Hall, if he can get his aggregate numbers past some notable checkpoints. 3000 hits will do it of course - but getting past 1000 extra base hits will also be huge. He is at 823 currently, so he has some work to do. Getting to a 1000 will illustrate that he is not just a singles hitter. Throw in 400+ stolen bases, his post season heroics, and at least the perception that he did it cleanly and his resume begins to look better.

    Then look at his run scored numbers. He is currently at 1594. If he pushes that in the 1750+ range, then you are going to have to look for reasons NOT to put him in Cooperstown. If he scores 1800 he will be in the top 20 run scorers ever to play - with every eligible player in the top 30 (not named Pete Rose) already elected.

    Also, Johnny Damon is a likable player - no matter where he plays. Are we going to pretend that this quality is not important in getting votes? Whether or not we agree with this point, it is a fact.

56. Shping Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:29 am

    KJ and #47

    Ok, you don't want subjective judgment. Good goal but you just illustrated how difficult it is to achive.

    When you say "MLB/Selig et al, shamelessly looked the other way during this era" you are not only making a strong judgment, you and many others are way off base. In fact (you may say "judgment" but i say fact) it was one of the world's strongest unions over the past 35 years, the MLB players union, that stonewalled the issue for years with the threat of invasion-of-privacy protests and labor negotiation difficulties if the issue of testing was pursued. Sure, Selig/et al (including managers, clean players, etc) finally realized that steroid use was rampant and needed to be addressed, but they also knew that the union would fight it to the death, so MLB had to wait until public opinion forced the issue on steroid testing and swung pro-testing in their favor.

    Sure, the excitement over homeruns and revenue eventually became a factor, but Selig/et al's only real crime was not courting public opinion to their side sooner, and not realizing how devastating steroids would become. But it never would have gotten that far if not for the very powerful union's stubborn and short-sighted stance against testing -- especially and ironically because it eventually harmed its own clients/players' reputations in the future.

    Sorry for ranting a little and being a little off-topic, but yes, I'm a Selig apologist (he brought baseball to Milwaukee for me in my childhood) and it bugs me immensely when he gets blamed for things unfairly. All-in-all, he's done a lot of good for baseball, esp. as a traditionalist who has realized that sometimes he/we need to embrace the future, while balancing it with tradition and common sense.

57. Timmy p Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:41 am

    This is a link to Lou Rawls singing the national anthem before a 1982 world series game. At about 00:41 there is a close-up of 37 year old Don Sutton. Watch closely at Don's face and you can see the nervousness, and the patriotic pride in his eyes! It really is something and almost brings tears to my eyes watching it. This is a guy who's whole life was baseball, and he'd been to the WS 3 times before, all 3 unsuccessful for his team.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-MyDIuFcDI&feature=autoplay&list=PL04E035E17839D8FF&index=26&playnext=1

58. Shping Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:46 am

    Final add-on for now:

    Ranking players/teams and discussing issues will always be subjective. Until the next Einstein comes up with one theory to explain the universe, or until the next Bill James comes up with one stat that we all agree is the be-all and end-all of stats, we'll always have debates on this stuff. That's the fun of it! Accept the fact that we're all biased and judgmental, then enjoy the ride, while seeing who can make the most convincing arguments and enlighten the rest of us a little along the way.

    For me, Damon, nahhhh, not a HOFer, no way. But some of you convinced me that maybe he will earn it with a couple more good years.

59. panrell Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 8:21 am

    The guy with the latest start on this list is Howard (24 yrs old). He could have been up 2 years earlier if not for Jim Thome. If he had, maybe by now he would have learned to hit a breaking ball.

60. DavidS Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 9:06 am

    The "automatic" HR threshhold that Kingman tested was not going to be 500 because it was 400! Up until that point every single eligible player who had hit 400 HR had been (or would soon be) elected.
    Also, now that Palmeiro is likely not going to be elected any time soon, the 3000-hit precedent has also been set.
    Lastly, I don't think any of these milestones ever guaranteed election in the minds of the voters, they are just round numbers that were/are seemingly impossible to achieve WITHOUT being a HOF-caliber player. We now know that such things are possible, but it does take some fairly extreme circumstances.

61. Scott Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 10:02 am

    @ 46 - John, at one time I thought Bill Buckner might be the first to challenge the 3000 hits and you're in silliness

62. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 10:37 am

    @43, 46, 51: 500 career HR as an "automatic" HOF threshold - it certainly was not automatic for:
    Harmon Killebrew - elected on his 4th year, 1984/ debut year, 59%
    Eddie Matthews - elected on his 5th year, 1978/ debut year, 32%

    @60: 400 HR was not automatic for:
    Duke Snider - elected in his 11th (!) year in 1980/debut year, 17%

    Someone please explain why the above players were not considered by the BWAA voters as qualified as Willie McCovey, who was elected in his first year in 1986 with 81%. McCovey is Killebrew's #1 most similar batter.

    Well, 3000 hits still seems automatic now, although technically the following were not first-ballot:
    - Tris Speaker (2nd-ever ballot)
    - Adrain Anson
    - Eddie Collins
    - Napolean Lajoie (2nd-ever ballot)
    - Paul Waner

    Then again, _no one_ was first-ballot from 1937 to 1960.

    @24, 26 - Ron Santo was one of the worst mistakes of the BWAA HOF voters, along with Johnny Mize and Arky Vaughn. Many voters expect third basemen to match the offensive standards of OF and 1B, unless they have the "defensive wizard" rep of Brooks Robinson.

63. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 10:42 am

    @62: 3000 hits and the HOF - yes, Rose and Palmeiro are not in the HOF, but of course that's for off-the-field reasons

64. DavidS Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 12:22 pm

    @63: agreed - it's going to be very strange once Bonds/Clemens come on the ballot. The writers can at least twist themselves into making cases against McGwire/Palmeiro (and even Bagwell) but still vote for lesser players. Once you've kept Bonds or Clemens out you've pretty much drawn a line in the sand.

65. Timmy p Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    @62 The biggest mistake made by the HoF is Wahoo Sam Crawford, it's almost criminal what happened to him. Ron Santo not being in the hall is also a crime. What we see from many sportswriters, and many posters here is a sort of group-think mentality. Brooks Robinson is a good example of the group-think mentality. It just became excepted that he would be in the HoF and Ronnie would not.

66. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 1:24 pm

    @65/ Timmy p Says: "@62 The biggest mistake made by the HoF is Wahoo Sam Crawford ... .... Ron Santo not being in the hall is also a crime. What we see from many sportswriters, and many posters here is a sort of group-think mentality..."

    Timmy P - Yes, I should also have included Sam Crawford and Home Run Baker, the two worst dead-ball omissions by the BBWAA in HOF voting. I didn't, because I think they were a slightly different case - they got buried in the huge backlog of the HOF's first 12/15 years of voting, as did other deadball stars, and never gained any traction. Still, it's surprising that a player with 2,964 hits (Crawford) never got 5% of the vote.

67. mosc Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 2:14 pm

    @64. I can't see them keeping bonds or clemens out, at least not eventually. And when they get in, others will sneak in. I think the steroids era players that will be excluded are mostly guys who are already retired and whose eligibility will come up before bonds/Clemens. Basically we get a couple instances of Rice and Blyleven instead of Palmero and Mcguire.

    Larkin and Bagwell will already put big pressure on the hall to be more ambivalent towards the steroid era. I think they'll both get in soon. And if we get Tim Raines or Jack Morris into the hall instead of a Larry Walker or similar, I'm fine with that.

68. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:20 pm

    The biggest mistake made by the HoF is Wahoo Sam Crawford, it's almost criminal what happened to him.

    Um, he is in, you know. And has been for over 50 years. And made it before he died. Considering the backlog the HOF had to work through, and there not being elections every year in those days, on the list of HOF crimes this is roughly equivalent to spitting on the sidewalk.

69. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:48 pm

    Re "automatic" HOF thresholds: Not long ago I compiled a list of the top HR hitters who had never been inducted. Don't know what became of it, so I'll do it again here.

    I'll start this from 1930, since the HR didn't really become a common weapon until about 1920, so career HR totals before then were of little consequence. (I realize that this is before the HOF even opened.)

    Cy Williams, 4-time HR champ, retired after 1930 with 251 career HR. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    1942, when Bob Johnson passed him. Johnson played through 1945 and retired with 288 career HR. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    1957, when Gil Hodges passed him. Hodges played through 1963 and retired with 370 career HR. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    1968, when Rocky Colavito passed him. Colavito retired after that season with 374 career HR. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    1973, when Frank Howard passed him. Howard retired after that season with 382 career HR. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    1985, when Dave Kingman passed him. Kingman played one more season and retired with 442 career HR. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    1998, when Mark McGwire passed him. McGwire played through 2001 and retired with 583 HR. This stands as the highest total which has come up for election but has not been inducted. If you assume McGwire would have made it but for steroid concerns, Kingman's total was passed in...

    2000, by Jose Canseco. Canseco played one more year and retired with 462. This was the highest total not to be inducted until....

    2002, when Fred McGriff passed him. McGriff played through 2004 and retired with 493 HR. This stands as the highest total which has come up for election but has not been inducted for reasons other than steroids.

70. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:53 pm

    Looked at another way:

    1926 is the first season there was a player with 200 HR who would not get inducted. Williams was the 2nd player to ever hit 200 HR.

    1958 is the first season there was a player with 300 HR who would not get inducted. Hodges was the 15th player to hit 300.

    1985 is the first season there was a player with 400 HR who would not get inducted. Kingman was the 21st player to hit 400.

    1999 is the first season there was a player with 500 HR who would not get inducted. McGwire was the 17th player to hit 500.

71. John Autin Says:
    June 14th, 2011 at 3:54 pm

    @47, KJ -- I think you and others have read far too much into my statements.

    All that I've said on the subject of HOF voting and steroids is that the voters shouldn't be affected by the business interests of the Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, N.Y. I didn't express any judgment at all about the players in question.

    In particular, I did not say that "the best objective analysis leads to the conclusion" that steroid-tainted players should be kept out. Rather, I said, "IF the best objective analysis leads" them to that conclusion, then that's how the votes should go, and damn the consequences. Big difference.

    As for the difficulty of "objective analysis," I agree, and I wish I had said "the most reasonable analysis."

72. Filme2012 Says:
    June 15th, 2011 at 12:08 pm

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73. Timmy p Says:
    June 15th, 2011 at 1:06 pm

    Brooks Robinson, 23 seasons, 268 HR, .267/.322/401! That's awesome. Actually those Bmore teams were pretty good during the late '60's and early '70s and I give Earl Weaver credit for coming up with an original plan!