44+ Wins In First 72 Games Since 1996
Posted by Steve Lombardi on June 21, 2011
How many teams have won at least 44 of their first 72 games (in a season) since 1996?
Here is the list -
Boston has now done this seven times in sixteen years. That's best in the big leagues over this span.
June 21st, 2011 at 2:49 pm
And they have just 1 division title in that span...
June 21st, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Actually, it would be interesting to see how often a team that does this wins the world series/wins the division/makes the playoffs. Just by looking, the percentage for making the playoffs is pretty high, but I spot a couple that failed to do that for whatever reason.
June 21st, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Alright, so of the 39 teams (not including 2011 of course):
6 failed to make the playoffs (2002 SEA-93 W, 2002 LAD-92 W, 2002 BOS-93 W, 2003 SEA-93 W, 2006 CHW-90 W, 2006 BOS, 86 W)
3 won the wild card. Unsurprisingly, all 3 were BOS (1998, 2008, 2009)
30 won their division (77%)
10 made it to the world series, (in 14 years, that's 36%)
5 won the world series (also 36%)
So you're definitely in great shape to making it to the playoffs, if nothing else!
June 21st, 2011 at 3:18 pm
The all-time top 200 is here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/streaks.cgi?games=72&year=ALL&SHOW=TOT&includes=start_year&game_start=10&game_end=135&teams=ALL&orderby=wins&submit=Find+Streaks
Unfortunately, 44 wins doesn't make it to the top 200, and its likely not all the 45-win teams are on the list. Its either one year or all-years on that page. Normally, I like giving the 19th century guys their due but this is the type of list where I don't mind the 20th century cutoff because there were so many high-WPct teams in the 1800s.
Anyhow, the top teams from 1901 on who didn't make the postseason:
BRO-1942 - 51-21
BOS-1987 - 51-21
DET-1911 - 49-23
NYG-1919 - 49-23
PIT-1921 - 49-23
NYG-1935 - 48-21
SEA-2003 - 48-24
STL-1941 - 48-24
NYY-1920 - 48-24
SFG-1993 - 48-24
DET-1950 - 47-24
CHC-1977 - 47-25
BRO-1946 - 47-25
BOS-1939 - 47-25
NYG-1952 - 47-25
CHW-2006 - 47-25
WSH-1930 - 47-25
LAD-1962 - 47-25
A few of those teams I didn't realize were any good. 1977 Cubs? 1950 Tigers?
June 21st, 2011 at 3:27 pm
@4/ DavidRF - while you're at it: how many of these teams (besides the current Red Sox) started off 2-10?? How many won 100 games? I'm guessing no team did both...
June 21st, 2011 at 5:49 pm
A Boston-Philly World Series would be pretty cool...
June 21st, 2011 at 6:45 pm
That's been the typical Red Sox season arc since 1950: Start out like gangbusters and fade come August! We may have a couple more rings now, but some things never chaneg I guess! LOL
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:17 am
What is the significance of 44 and 72?
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:22 am
@4
The 1978 Red Sox were 51-21, not 1987.
That confused the hell out of me for a few minutes.
June 22nd, 2011 at 8:52 am
@7
You know, I haven't heard that sort of defeatism from a Sox fan in a few years. I'd call it nostalgia, but I rather like not having the deep-seated angst for my baseball team.
I also don't know if it's true. I'll have to take a look sometime.
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:23 am
@4, DavidRF -- The 1977 Cubs were on fire in the first half, peaking at 47-22 on June 28, with an 8.5 game lead. Their last day in 1st was Aug. 6 (63-44). The Cubs slumped to .500 by year's end, while the Phillies went nuts; they won 19 of 20 in one stretch to grab a 7.5-game lead and were never really threatened again.
The Cubs in that era were infamous for starting strong, then folding. I remember a Bill James piece suggesting that their all-day-game home schedule might really be a factor, rather than the lame excuse it was often dismissed as. But I don't know if there were any actual studies.
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:49 am
@7
Yeah... so I took a look: the popular theory among doom-n-gloom Red Sox fans, that Boston "always" starts strong and then goes in the tank, doesn't have a lot of evidence, in the aggregate.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Aqwb7VqrF5K9dEtUbU53Tjgydk12anhSY2tpYkJuZEE&single=true&gid=0&output=html
Since 1950, the Red Sox have a .540 winning percentage in April. Yes, that's their best month. But over that same time period, they're no worse than .525 in any other full month. (March and October excluded, since we're talking regular season here, and they've only played a total of 98 games in March and October in 61 years.)
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:55 am
(By the way, in creating that spreadsheet, it pained me some, to have to remove the divide-by-zero error in the "September" percentage column, on the row commencing "2004"...)
June 22nd, 2011 at 11:18 am
In the interest of full disclosure, their start-fast reputation is a little more credible in recent years.
Since 1986, they're a .580 April team, a .561 May team, and no more than .553 in any other month. Since the turn of the century, they're a .615 April team, and their second-best month has also been May. But of course, now we're limiting it to a period where they've been perennial contenders, so unsurprisingly, all month splits are improving.