Scoreless in Seattle no more! … and other Saturday streak-breakers
Posted by John Autin on July 17, 2011
-- Our long Northwest nightmare is over: Ichiro Suzuki's 2-out single ended Seattle's scoring drought at 30 innings, dating to last Sunday, and snapped the Rangers' shutout streak at 3 games and 33 innings. Texas pitcher C.J. Wilson immediately announced his retirement.
- Well, no ... but the Rangers did retake the lead 3 batters into the next inning, en route to a 5-1 triumph. So while the Mariners' zero streak is over, their losing streak has reached 8 games.
- Ian Kinsler homered leading off the 1st inning. It's the first time in his 193 career starts that Felix Hernandez allowed a HR to the first batter. He had yielded 49 hits leading off a game, but just 6 doubles and 1 triple. It's also just the 11th HR he's allowed in the 1st inning (839 PAs). Kinsler, who began the night 8 for 49 with 1 HR in his career against Hernandez, homered again off King Felix in the 8th. Speaking of 2 HRs....
- The M's have 2 HRs in July, by 3rd-string catcher Josh Bard and rookie 2B Dustin Ackley. They have no HRs in their last 8 games through Saturday, the 2nd-longest homerless streak in franchise history and their longest since 1983. Justin Smoak, who leads the club with 12 HRs and 43 RBI, has not gone deep since June 12, a span of 27 games and 107 PAs during which he has 5 RBI and 3 runs. Miguel Olivo, the co-leader with 12 HRs, has no HRs in his last 11 games, with 2 RBI, 1 run, 1 walk, and a .163 BA. The RBI by Ichiro gave him 3 in his last 28 games. (My head hurts now....)
- Seattle's last victory over a team with a winning record was June 19 against the Phillies. They've lost 11 straight to teams at or above .500 since then: 1 to Washington, 3 to Atlanta, 4 to the Angels and now 3 to Texas.
-- Speaking of long streaks ending, the Orioles won for the first time since July 3, snapping a 9-game skid. Closer Kevin Gregg made it interesting (agonizing) in the 9th, walking the bases loaded before Orlando Cabrera cleared them with a 2-out, 2-strike double, bringing Cleveland within a run. But Mike Gonzalez came on to retire Grady Sizemore for his 1st save of the year.
- The O's also ended their 10-game streak of allowing at least 10 hits. That matched the longest since the club moved to Baltimore in 1954, and was the longest in franchise history since the 1939 Browns did it for 12 straight games. Here are the longest such streaks in club history:
| Rk | Strk Start | End | Games | W | L | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | WP | BK | Opp | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SLB | 1926-07-22 | 1926-08-03 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 120.0 | 160 | 99 | 88 | 56 | 30 | 15 | 6.60 | 4 | 3 | 0 | BOS,CLE,NYY,WSH |
| 2 | SLB | 1939-07-14 | 1939-07-23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 113.0 | 166 | 92 | 78 | 49 | 41 | 14 | 6.21 | 1 | 4 | 0 | WSH,PHA,NYY,BOS |
| 3 | SLB | 1920-09-26 | 1921-04-16 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 99.0 | 134 | 87 | 73 | 45 | 34 | 4 | 6.64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | CLE,CHW |
| 4 | BAL | 2011-07-03 | 2011-07-15 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 83.0 | 128 | 80 | 76 | 35 | 61 | 18 | 8.24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ATL,TEX,BOS,CLE |
| 5 | BAL | 1996-04-17 | 1996-04-26 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 88.0 | 118 | 88 | 82 | 49 | 57 | 17 | 8.39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | BOS,TEX,CLE,KCR |
| 6 | SLB | 1935-09-29 | 1936-04-24 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 86.0 | 131 | 82 | 71 | 31 | 22 | 6 | 7.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | CLE,CHW,DET |
-- Wrapping up the streak-busters, San Diego ended a 7-game losing skein by pounding a pair of 2-out, 3-run HRs off Barry Zito on their way to an 11-3 victory. It was the first time the Padres topped 5 runs since June 24, a span of 17 games in which they batted .208 and scored 39 runs (2.3 R/G).
- By the 3rd inning Saturday, they had scored more runs (7) than in their last 6 games combined (5).
-- After 6 goose eggs, Jered Weaver needed just 3 more outs to match Justin Verlander's 2011 streak of 7 straight starts with at least 7 IP and no more than 1 run allowed -- but the A's nicked him for 2 runs with 2 gone in the 7th, and he had to settle for his 18th quality start in 20 tries this year. After winning his first 6 starts this year, Weaver lost 4 straight in May, sending his ERA to a season peak of 2.45. But in his last 10 games, he's allowed 12 total runs in 77.1 IP, trimming that ERA back to 1.90, and raising his record to 12-4.
-- In the 2nd game of the doubleheader, Angels rookie Mark Trumbo hit his 18th HR. Only 3 Angels rookies have ever hit more HRs in a season: 31 by Tim Salmon in 1991; 24 by Lee Thomas in 1961, the team's first year; and 22 by Wally Joyner in 1986.
- Trumbo's 18 career HRs have come in 93 games; only Joyner (20) ever had more at that stage of an Angels career.
-- Brandon Allen, called up by the D'backs two days ago, has already experienced the highs and lows of big-league life. Friday, he pinch-hit with 2 down in the 9th and the tying runs on base, but struck out to end the game. In the starting lineup Saturday, his 3-run HR in the 2nd off Hiroki Kuroda provided all the scoring for Arizona in their 3-2 win, as Ian Kennedy notched his 10th.
- Allen was hitting .306 and slugging .579 for Reno in the PCL before his call-up. Is that good? Well ... Reno as a team is hitting .316 and slugging .532. Allen's 1.006 OPS was 20th in the PCL and 4th among Reno regulars, behind Wily Mo Pena, Sean Burroughs and Cody Ransom. Allen was up with the D'backs in 2009-10 and hit a combined .221 with 5 HRs and 60 strikeouts in 172 PAs.
-- Josh Reddick's 2-run HR off James Shields started Boston's comeback from a 3-0 deficit towards a 9-5 win. Reddick is batting .379 (25 for 66) and slugging .682 in 75 PAs.
July 17th, 2011 at 12:59 am
Chris Getz has an ongoing H streak of 34 without an XBH. What is the record?
July 17th, 2011 at 1:02 am
@1, Fabian -- I don't know; maybe something by Getz last year? 🙂
July 17th, 2011 at 1:05 am
@1 I don't know but since Bill Bergen managed 68 extra base hits in 3228 plate appearances and 516 hits I would guess he has exceeded that record many times.
July 17th, 2011 at 1:08 am
@3 Let's not be pessimistic...it is ongoing! 🙂
July 17th, 2011 at 1:11 am
@1 -- OK, seriously, here are some of the longest no-XBH streaks by non-pitchers in the last 10 years:
Non-regulars:
-- 65 games, Willie Bloomquist (SEA 2007-08), 167 ABs.
-- 56 games, Luiz Hernandez (BAL-KCR, 2008-09), 131 ABs.
Regulars:
-- 48 games, Julio Lugo (STL-BAL, 2009-10), 153 ABs; and
-- 48 games, Joey Gathright (KCR, 2008), 145 ABs.
You can view the search results here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=SV7rM
(Streak searches are time-consuming, so I'm not going further back than 2001 until Getz reaches 50 games.)
July 17th, 2011 at 1:17 am
@5 This puts Getz in 5th place by hit total (34)...since '01. Thanks for the search JA!
July 17th, 2011 at 1:20 am
BTW, while I was being flippant @2, Getz really did have a 36-game no-XBH streak in 2009-10.
But now I realize that Fabian said a consecutive HITS streak, not games. Well, you can still use my search results @5, and sort on the Hits column. It won't give a definitive answer, since it only includes the 100 players with at least 32 straight XBH-free games since 2001. But there have been at least 4 singles streaks in that span longer than Getz's 34.
July 17th, 2011 at 1:28 am
@5 Wondering why current streak doesn't appear on list.
July 17th, 2011 at 1:35 am
As you mentioned @7 the search cut off at 32 games. He just played in his 33rd game. I'm a newbie here.
July 17th, 2011 at 1:37 am
@8, Fabian -- That's because Getz's current streak through yesterday was 31 games. The saved-search results are capped at 100 players, and the cutoff fell in the middle of the 32-game group.
B-R stats are updated overnight, so if the search were run tomorrow, Getz would appear atop the 32-game group since he's the most recent.
July 17th, 2011 at 1:40 am
I'm hoping he does something with this to both justify your time spent and nix my newbie status.
July 17th, 2011 at 7:42 am
I'm surprised you didn't mention the Mets 11-2 victory over the Phils--one of the worst starts of Cole Hamel's career. And the Mets did this without Wright, Reyes, Beltran, or Ike Davis. Hamel's record against the Mets is now 3-10 for his career.
July 17th, 2011 at 11:10 am
"Kevin Gregg made it interesting (agonizing) in the 9th, walking the bases loaded before ........"
As watchers of his last team know all too well, there is no such thing as a routine, game-finishing, 123 inning for Gregg. You lose all your nails watching Gregg close a game. I don't consider him a very effective closer.
On the other hand, although last night's appearance ballooned Gregg's ERA to 4.00 and his ERA+ to 99, that is still lower than Matt Capps' 4.77 and Jonathan Papelbon's 4.06! (I know relievers ERA's are inflated by one or two bad appearances.)
Complete list of high-ERA 2011 closers here.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/shareit/6trY0
On second thought, a good ERA must not be requirement of an effective closer. But Kevin Gregg's WHIP of 1.583 tells the real story of his appearances, not the 15 saves, in my opinion.
July 17th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
@13, Neil -- Kevin Gregg would be a fine poster boy for a "Closing Is Overrated" public-education campaign. The goal would be to show that the conventional stats for evaluating closer performance don't really give us much clue as to the relative value of a "good" or a "bad" closer, given the current cushy job description.
Let's take Gregg's 2010 season. He had 37 saves in 43 chances for your Jays, a solid 86% conversion rate that's close to the normal rate for modern closers. What was the actual win value of that performance, as measured by Win Probability Added?
The sum of the WPA in Gregg's 43 save chances last year was minus-0.327. In other words, the Jays wound up with no more wins due to Gregg's performance in save chances than was predicted by the WPA method at the time he entered the game.
Here's a breakdown of the WPA in Gregg's 37 saves:
-- 5% or less, 17 games
-- 5.1% to 10%, 8 games
-- 10.1% to 20%, 10 games
-- Over 20%, 2 games
And now, his 6 blown saves:
-- Minus-20.1% to -30%, 2 games
-- Minus-80% or more, 4 games
Those 4 badly blown saves, all by themselves, nearly washed away all the win value of his 37 saves: 3.542 WPA in the 37 saves, minus-3.374 WPA in the 4 badly blown saves.
July 17th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Rickie Weeks hit in the 5 hole for the first time in his career and hit the game winning HR in the top of the 9th. He is likely to stay in the middle of the order this year to protect Prince and remain there after Prince sells himself to the highest bidder this offseason.
July 17th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
@12, AlbaNate -- Shhhhhhhh ... I'm trying not to jinx the Metsies! 🙂
I will say that Mr. Hamels sure does have some interesting "opponent" splits. And while the small samples and the turnover of opponent lineups over the years probably leaches most the significance out of those splits, here's one that might still be meaningful:
-- Hamels vs. AL teams (regular season):19 starts, 4.21 ERA, 117.2 IP, 124 hits, 20 HRs.
July 17th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
@15, Topper -- Nice observation on Weeks moving to the #5 hole; I didn't notice that.
But as far as providing "protection" for Prince, all I can say is, "whatever."
Obviously, Milwaukee's #5 hitters, as a group, have been stinko this year. But has it been a drag on Fielder's performance? Sure, he leads the NL with 13 intentional walks -- but:
(a) that's not a particularly high IBB total, and Fielder's total walks are actually down this year compared to the previous two;
(b) he's still managed to lead the league in RBI, last time I checked; and
(c) while Rickie Weeks is a fine hitter, I don't think his presence behind Fielder will make a difference in whether or not they pitch to Prince in a given situation, especially since they bat from opposite sides -- so, for the move to "work," Weeks will have to actually come through at a good rate when teams do pitch around Fielder.
It may be worth noting that Weeks's career BA with runners in scoring position is .244, 21 points below his BA with the bases empty.
It may also be worth noting that Weeks currently leads the NL with 68 runs, and was 2nd last year with 112; the Brewers are tied for the NL lead with 72 runs from the leadoff spot. So the move takes him out of a role in which he's excelling (no matter what Timmy says) and creates new challenges both for Weeks and for whomever replaces him atop the order. (Corey Hart? Really?!?)
All in all, it strikes me as a "we're goin' south, better do something quick!" kind of move.
July 17th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
@ 5
if you are searching for an outlier for games with no XBH, you have to look at Herb Washington. In 105 games, he had 0 XBH (or plate appearances)
July 17th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
By protection I meant more along the lines of not having the lineup totally drop-off after Prince. I agree that Prince is going to hit no matter what, but he has only scored 54 runs with that .421 OBP, whereas Weeks leads the league, as you mentioned, with 68 runs scored but only a .347 OBP. I would think you put a lot of players in the Brewers leadoff spot and lead the league in runs scored with Braun and Fielder (who have each won a player of the month award this season) batting behind them.
Weeks is on pace for 31 HRs but only 70 RBI for a very Alfonso Soriano like waste of power.
Corey Hart does have experience in the leadoff spot, where he spent a lot of time in 2007. He posted a respectable .284/.341/.547, 15 HR, 48 R in 262 PA over 55 games.
July 17th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Topper, I hear you. I still don't think it makes sense.
If the problem is the #5 hole, why not just plug Corey Hart in there? He's batted all over the order this year, but very little at #5. To me, Hart is better suited to hit 5th than leadoff, with his career .331 OBP; Weeks has a career .354 OBP.
You mentioned that Weeks is on pace for 31 HRs and only 70 RBI. OK, but does it solve that problem to put a different 30-HR guy in the leadoff spot? (Hart hit 31 HRs last year.) What's the difference between "wasting" Weeks's power in the leadoff spot and wasting Hart's power there?
And while you cited Hart's leadoff performance in 2007, it's also true that his career OBP batting leadoff is just .311, and his career OBP leading off an inning is .309 -- but with 31 HRs in 621 PAs. As a leadoff man, Hart looks suspiciously like a #5 hitter.
I don't get it. Roenicke is moving two guys into unaccustomed roles. He's taking Weeks away from a vital leadoff role, in which he's been excellent. And he's doing it in the middle of a pennant race. I don't like it.
July 17th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
JA, I agree with you...neither of them should be in the leadoff spot.
July 17th, 2011 at 6:09 pm
@1, @5
I remembered that Horace Clarke of the Yankees had only 9 XBH in 1968. I checked his game logs and saw that for the last 55 games of 1968 and the first 5 games of 1969 he accumulated 239 AB, 54 singles and no XBH.
July 17th, 2011 at 7:04 pm
@22, Nice work, Richard.
Here's a link to the 100 longest game streaks with 0 XBH (by non-pitchers) in the 20 years 1963-82:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=5BoIt
I'm sorry to say that Jerry Remy "topped" Horace Clarke with 56 straight singles spanning 1980-81.
July 17th, 2011 at 7:42 pm
JA, Clarke is way low on your list in terms of games, but in terms of at-bats he is first on the list. I think that is more "impressive" then leading in non XBH games
July 17th, 2011 at 7:49 pm
@23
Thanks for the update. I did a second check and saw that his streak spanned 59 games over those two seasons. I don't know why your table shows 57. I also counted AB in the games before and after those 59. Clarke had a similar streak of 45 games to start the 1968 season.
July 17th, 2011 at 8:26 pm
@ 25 I don't think the AB or GP are as impressive as the H are. A guy with a dismal 'below the Mendoza-line' average will be atop these lists constantly without much significance. Let's go Getz!
July 17th, 2011 at 8:42 pm
@25, Richard -- I'm not gonna check it, but the reason for "57" instead of "59" could be that I checked the P-I option to exclude games in which the batter did not have at least 1 AB or SF.
July 17th, 2011 at 8:50 pm
@27
I checked. Clarke had 2 games without an AB or SF. So far he seems to have the longest AB streak without an XBH.
July 17th, 2011 at 11:22 pm
The sum of the WPA in Gregg's 43 save chances last year was minus-0.327.
That's fascinating. I don't remember seeing such a breakout before. Can you run that for other closers?
July 17th, 2011 at 11:51 pm
@29 -- "That's fascinating" from J.T. = I haven't wasted my bachelor weekend, after all!
Johnny, here's how I did that:
Player page > Finders > Game > select year(s) > check "Save Opportunity" > sort by: WPA > Get Report.
Then, I copied the results and pasted into Excel, where I calculated the various totals. (If you're playing along at home, don't forget to delete any intervening "header" rows.)
I'll give you Mariano's 2010 report (so that we all know what a good closer year looks like):
-- Total WPA in save chances: 1.339
Saves by WPA:
-- 5% or less, 7 games
-- 5.1% to 10%, 13 games
-- 10.1% to 20%, 10 games
-- Over 20%, 3 games
Blown saves by WPA (all figures negative):
-- 19.2%, 30.0%, 52.0%, 71.7%, 79.3%
Note that Gregg had 4 blown saves with worse WPA than the worst of Mo's blown saves.
July 18th, 2011 at 12:00 am
Just for fun, I ran a WPA report for K-Rod's 62-save season (2008)
-- Total WPA in save chances: 3.266
62 Saves, by WPA:
-- 5% or less, 15 games
-- 5.1% to 10%, 22 games
-- 10.1% to 20%, 8 games
-- Over 20%, 17 games
7 Blown Saves, by WPA (all figures negative):
-- 18%, 28%, 34.1%, 65.4%, 74.6%, 79.8%, 89.9%
July 18th, 2011 at 12:57 am
@20, 21
I've been running the whole Brewers/Weeks/leadoff thing through my own head the past couple days, so i've enjoyed being a fly on the wall for your discussion here. Part of me agrees that it might be a good move to utilize Weeks' power in five hole (he's got far more consistent power than Hart over past few years), and part of me agrees that it might be a bad move to change their roles during a pennant race.
However, the whole thing might really boil down to two age-old (but contrary) issues: player preferences and the irrelevance of batting order positions. Regarding first point: Hart says he has always felt uncomfortable in five hole for some reason and Weeks said he likes it there so far, and i think those types of psychological issues can actually make a significant difference. The Mariners have had to deal with this issue for years with Ichiro and ongoing suggestions that he should bat third, but everyone knows Ichiro hates the idea, so they've always been afraid to move him out of leadoff spot. (Not to mention the whole Posada snit earlier this year about batting 9th, and i seem to recall Reggie being upset about batting 5th years ago, etc, etc).
Second point/question: Haven't Bill James and others done studies showing that, as far as teams' overall run-scoring goes, the batting order is basically irrelevant?
With those points in mind, i guess i would say, if the players (Weeks, Hart) like the move, and if the team thinks it brings them good mojo, then why not do it? It probably doesn't matter, but if the players think it does, at least they're happy and believing in themselves and therefore possibly more productive.
More than anything, it really means the Brewers need to find a leadoff hitter with a better OBP so that both Weeks and Hart can drive in runs from the middle of the order.
July 18th, 2011 at 1:04 am
@32, Shping -- Player preference is a good point to bring up. If both of them are actively in favor of the switch, that probably outweighs whatever mathematical difference there might be.
I have heard frequent mention of studies showing that batting order is largely irrelevant. I wonder, though, if those studies have looked at extreme cases, like batting your worst hitter #1 and your best hitter #9. I would have to see some hard evidence to believe that that wouldn't make a difference. (Not that the Brewers are doing that; I meant it hypothetically.)
July 18th, 2011 at 1:50 am
I agree, in an extreme case like that it must make a difference.
One of the more thought-provoking things i remember James pointing out somewhere was how the 2nd inning is always the lowest scoring inning (in large samples, of course) because the traditional lineup makeup that favors 1st-inn runs basically ruins your chances in 2nd-inn and often times that tradeoff might result in overall net losses of runs. So it might be better off to bat your best hitter fourth instead of third because he then has a chance of leading off the 2nd inn, instead of batting with two outs and nobody on, etc -- but then again, it might barely matter anyway.
July 18th, 2011 at 10:44 pm
JA, a ridiculous lineup will definitely score many fewer runs than a reasonable one. Among reasonable lineups, the differences seem to be small enough that factors such as player comfort/preference should be considered.
Shping, the most in-depth analysis of lineup construction that I'm aware of is from The Book. You are right on, in that they found the 3rd spot got too many PA with 2 outs and no one on. In fact, they recommended the best hitters should bat 1st, 2nd, and 4th, not 3rd. But again, see my first paragraph.
July 19th, 2011 at 11:27 am
@18
Pinch-running is not considered a game played. Sorry.
July 21st, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Update: Getz now has 37 games, 142 at-bats, and 38 hits without an extra- base hit...still an ongoing streak.
July 28th, 2011 at 12:11 am
Update: Getz now has 42 games, 162 at-bats, and 42 hits without an extra-base hit...still and ongoing streak.