26 Responses to “25+ QS Since 2007 By Pitcher 25 Or Younger”

1. Neil L. Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 12:23 pm

   Nice list, Andy. I had forgotten, until I checked, how young the King got started. He's not likely to be caught by any on the current list.

2. Joe Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 12:36 pm

   Look at those ERA's. Josh Johnson's the highest at 2.64. It sort of puts lie to the convention that the QS is meaningless. Guys who pile them up tend to throw a lot of good games in the process.

3. Neil L. Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 1:22 pm

   @2
   Hang on a minute, Joe. The ERA's posted are only for the quality starts, not for all of their games, so of course they are going to look good.

   You will still get an argument on the "quality" of quality starts as a measure of pitching effectiveness, I think. No doubt it is better than wins and losses, but not as good as gamescore.

4. Johnny Twisto Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 1:39 pm

   The ERA's posted are only for the quality starts, not for all of their games, so of course they are going to look good.

   I think that was his point. People dismiss QS because "you can get it by giving up 3 ER in 6 IP." But the average QS is far better than that, so knowing how many QS a pitcher has had *does* tell you something useful about his performance.

5. Johnny Twisto Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 1:40 pm

   Now someone needs to synthesize this and the other thread about pitcher consistency as expressed through QS%.

6. nightfly Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 1:47 pm

   It strikes me that very few of these games resulted in shutouts... Hamels has four, a few guys have three.

   It also seems like a win% of lower than 70% indicates a team that isn't scoring very often for you. John Lannan, only 22-13 in SQ... not that he's amazing all that often, but he should be making some more headway there. And then there's two Mets (Pelfrey and Niese), two Giants (Cain and Bumgarner)... a lot of the offensively-challenged clubs. (But Lincecum's 10th best, at .846. Go figure).

7. Charles Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 2:12 pm

   Hernandez with 150 starts has started 22 games since Cain's last start before he turned 26. He has started 42 games since Lincecum's last start before he turned 26.

   From 2007 to 2011 in games before the pitcher's 26th birthday (QS/Starts)
   Hernandez is 107/150
   Cain is 88/131
   Lincecum is 78/102

8. Neil L. Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 2:21 pm

   @4
   Johhny, thanks, I did misinterpret Joe @2. And I don't totally dismiss QS as a useful stat.

   @5
   JT, agreed that it would be interesting to bring together the thoughts from the Sabathia blog and this one.

   What would QS% mean? Number of quality starts as a percentage of all starts?

   @6
   Nightfly, are quality starts not more likely in a close, relatively low-scoring game? Not to re-ignite the whole Jack Morris pitching-to-the-score debate, but if you are getting blown out then it isn't a quality start and if you are ahead by a lot you are going to let the opponents hit the ball and not nibble around the strike zone.

9. Johnny Twisto Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 2:26 pm

   Neil yes that's what I meant by QS%.

10. Jared Detter Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    Is there anybody on this list that has a bigger upside than Clayton Kershaw? He's getting better every year, and he's quickly approaching the Roy Halladay/Justin Verlander level. In fact, just about the only major difference is that Kershaw walks more hitters. Plus, he's only 23.

11. Bip Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 4:38 pm

    @1
    You sure? Kershaw is 45 behind, and assuming they make the same number of quality starts over the remainder of this season, Kershaw has two additional full seasons to catch up. He'll probably make about 66 starts in those two seasons, and 45/66 is definitely doable for him.

    @10
    Kershaw also has a lot more strikeouts, and his walks are really low compared to guys who usually have that many strikeouts. Also, he hasn't walked more that two batters in any of his last seven starts, and only once in his last 13 starts.

12. Doug Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 4:56 pm

    Jair Jurrgens and Jesse Listch stood out for me. Not guys I would have guessed.

    Here's the same guys who have at least a 60% quality start rate.

    Tim Lincecum 0.764%
    Daniel Hudson 0.750%
    Felix Hernandez 0.713%
    Zack Greinke 0.671%
    Matt Cain 0.667%
    Josh Johnson 0.647%
    Madison Bumgarner 0.641%
    Jaime Garcia 0.633%
    Jon Lester 0.632%
    Ubaldo Jimenez 0.622%
    David Price 0.618%
    Jair Jurrjens 0.615%
    Trevor Cahill 0.602%
    Yovani Gallardo 0.602%
    Chad Billingsley 0.600%

13. Neil L. Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 6:22 pm

    @1 @11
    Bip, good call.

    I had forgotten Clayton's age. A few assumptions involved, but he could well turn out to have more QS's than Felix by 25.

14. Neil L. Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 6:49 pm

    @12
    "Jair Jurrgens and Jesse Listch stood out for me. Not guys I would have guessed."

    Jesse Listch I get, Doug, but why is Jair Jurrgens a surprise to you on the quality start list?

15. Genis Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 6:56 pm

    Felix turns 26 next April, so he could also get about 12 or 13 more starts by his 26th birthday. If 70% of those are QS, that would put him at about 9 more, or 116 total.

    116-62=54
    Kershaw has a March birthday, so he has all of 2012 and 2013, so maybe 70 more starts from now till then. So he'll need 55 more to reach 117. 55/70 is about 78% and he's been at about 60% for his career so far. His biggest trouble in getting QS is pitching 6 innings since he does walk and strike out so many guys. It will be interesting to see if he can reach that.

16. Doug Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 7:05 pm

    @14.

    Why surprised by Jair Jurrgens?

    Just my ignorance. Didn't realize he was as young as he is.

17. Genis Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 7:07 pm

    Out of curiosity, I looked up the all-time leaders (since 1919) in QS by a pitcher who is 25 or younger. (And for QS, I use 3 or less runs allowed instead of earned runs).

    Top 10:
    1. Bert Blyleven: 154
    2. Dwight Gooden: 144
    3. Larry Dierker: 139
    T4. Denny McLain: 128
    T4. Catfish Hunter: 128
    6. Hal Newhouser: 127
    T7. Felix Hernandez: 120
    T7. Don Drysdale: 120
    9. Fernando Valenzuela: 119
    10. Milt Pappas: 116

    Not amazing company for King Felix, that's for sure. Only 4 HoFers in there.

    Matt Cain is the next highest active pitcher at 102, but he's no longer 25.

    With 120 QS, I don't think there is much of a chance for Kershaw to reach him in the career QS before their 26th birthday.

18. Jared Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 8:25 pm

    I know my post isn't exactly about quality starts, but it is about accomplishment by age 25. Did you know that Al Spalding is the all-time leader for wins through age 25? He had 251 wins by his 26th birthday. After her turned 26? Exactly 1 win. Kind of a curious oddity.

19. Bip Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    @15
    You're being pretty conservative with your estimates. The Dodgers have 64 more games to play, meaning Kershaw should get 12 more starts this season. Also, considering he's going to be the Dodger's #1 starter for a while, he should get about 33 starts each of the next two years. That comes out to 78 qualifying starts, and 55/78 is about 70%. So in terms of opportunity, he absolutely has a chance to do it.

    "55/70 is about 78% and he's been at about 60% for his career so far. His biggest trouble in getting QS is pitching 6 innings since he does walk and strike out so many guys. It will be interesting to see if he can reach that."

    You probably don't follow Kershaw as closely as I do as a Dodger fan. He had a pitch count limit on his 2008 and 2009 seasons, which explains his QS% of 38% and 53% for those two years. In 2010, his first season without that limit imposed, he put up a 72% QS rate, and has a 71% rate this season so far. Also, he's cut his BB/9 rate from 4.8 in 2009 to 3.6 in 2010 to 2.3 in 2011, and he's gone at least 6 innings in his last 11 starts. So he's certainly shown he has the ability to keep up that QS rate as well.

20. mccombe35 Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 9:23 pm

    Interesting to look at the losses on the list.

    Lester has only lost 1 of his 48 QS while Volstad has lost 12 of his 46.

21. John Autin Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 1:09 am

    @11, Bip -- Good first point; I was skeptical, but you got me to really look at the numbers.

    But this --
    "[Kershaw's] walks are really low compared to guys who usually have that many strikeouts."
    -- isn't true, especially if we're talking about Kershaw's whole career. His career walk rate of 3.8 BB/9 is pretty ordinary for a strikeout pitcher.

    Even if you're just talking about his excellent 2.35 BB/9 this year, it doesn't stand out among high-K pitchers of this century.

    From 2000-10, there were 67 qualifying seasons of at least 9 SO/9; 21 of the 67 had a BB/9 as good or better than Kershaw's 2011 rate, and 12 averaged 2.00 or less.

22. John Autin Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 1:56 am

    (Followup to #21)
    Despite taking issue with one of Bip's points, I have to admit that I had not realized what big strides Kershaw has made since 2010.

    I knew they had him on tight pitch limits in his first 2 years, but it also seemed that he further minimized his innings by expending so many pitches on walks. He improved his control last year, and took a quantum leap this year. And even though his ERA+ isn't dazzling, the additional innings he's logging -- on pace for about 240 IP -- have him on pace for 6.1 Wins Above Replacement, almost the same as Felix Hernandez had last year in winning the Cy Young Award.

    I'm not promoting Kershaw for the CYA -- he's "only" 5th in NL pitcher WAR -- but I can see why Bip is such a fan.

23. Bip Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 4:41 am

    @21
    I was talking about just this season, because the post I was responding to said "he's quickly approaching the Roy Halladay/Justin Verlander level. In fact, just about the only major difference is that Kershaw walks more hitters."

    I think I'm a little bit inclined to exaggerate based on very recent performance. Here's what I mean:
    April 2011:
    3.52 BB/9, 9.63 K/9
    May-July 2011:
    1.93 BB/9, 10.6 K/9
    And over those last seven games he's walking 1.5 per nine and K'ing nearly 11.

24. Charles Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 8:38 am

    Kyle Kendrick has 39 QS with a 25-3 record 89% with an ERA of 2.24
    Jaime Garcia has 31 QS with a 16-7 record 70% with an ERA of 1.60

    But look at the records of the two in all games started.

    Kendrick has 81 career starts with a 36-26 record 58% with an ERA of 4.67 in starts

    Garcia has 49 career starts with a 22-12 record 65% with an ERA of 2.92 in starts.

    Kendricks's bullpen is 17-12 (59%) with 18 (61%) blown saves or losses by a reliever.
    Garcia's bullpen is 6-9 (40%) with 13 (87%) blown saves or losses by a reliever.

    Kendrick is 0-13 with an ERA of 5.15 in games his team has scored two or fewer runs

    Garcia is 1-8 with an ERA of 1.94 in games his team has scored two or fewer runs

25. Charles Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 1:15 pm

    Correction Kendrick had 91 starts with 43% QS
    Garcia had 49 starts with 63% QC
    In my previous e-mails, I only gave the bullpen numbers for the No Decisions (29 for Kendrick and 15 for Garcia).

26. Dan L Says:
    July 26th, 2011 at 11:06 am

    I think it is amazing that no one has pointed out that the Giants have 3 guys on this list!