39 Responses to “100th win puts Verlander in elite company”

1. John Autin Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 12:21 am

   Note: This has been revised since it was first posted; refresh to check out the first table.

2. Johnny Twisto Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 12:40 am

   Using the Favorite Toy for pitchers may be silly, since the guys who do the most in their early 20s tend to do very little in their 30s. Nevertheless. Verlander is on pace for 23 wins this season. If he gets them, the Toy sez:

   75% chance for 200 wins
   50% chance for 224 wins
   32% chance for 250 wins
   11% chance for 300 wins
   non-zero chance for 341 wins

3. jim Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 12:57 am

   verlander is such a boss

4. CJW Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 2:45 am

   ~~~WINS~~~

5. Djibouti Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 2:46 am

   So what's the story with Vic Raschi? I can only assume he fought in the war given the gap in his stats, but why'd he spend so much time in the minors when he got back?

6. Charles Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 6:35 am

   Of the 7 pitchers starting at least 10 games for the Yankees, 5 had spent a significant amount of time in the majors or minors in 1945. The two exceptions, Spud Chandler and Randy Gumpert, had excellent years in 1946 with ERAs 0.700. Raschi hadn't pitched since 1942 and was 11-12 in the minors with a 3.18 ERA in 1946. He did pitch 2 complete game wins for the Yankees in September. He was 8-2 in the minors with a 2.75 ERA when he was called up when Spud Chandler was injured in 1947.

7. Charles Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 6:36 am

   Doesn't like greater than and less than signs

   Of the 7 pitchers starting at least 10 games for the Yankees, 5 had spent a significant amount of time in the majors or minors in 1945. The two exceptions, Spud Chandler and Randy Gumpert, had excellent years in 1946 with ERAs less than 2.50 and winning percentages over 0.700. Raschi hadn't pitched since 1942 and was 11-12 in the minors with a 3.18 ERA in 1946. He did pitch 2 complete game wins for the Yankees in September. He was 8-2 in the minors with a 2.75 ERA when he was called up when Spud Chandler was injured in 1947.

8. MLS Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 6:54 am

   Baseball is a funny sport. Denny McLain. I oftened wondered IF this man would've been hit by a bus after the 1969 season..would history be somewhat kinder to the man. HOF perhaps? Dizzy Dean and Koufax limited yet brilliant careers didn't hold them back from induction. Makes one ponder..doesn't it?

9. ˈdɛvən jʌŋɡ Says:
   August 12th, 2011 at 7:33 am

   And the guy already has 2 no hitters. Barely anyone's got 2, and he's already got 2. I hope he stays healthy!

10. Dukeofflatbush Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 8:47 am

    JA

    Can't start the stalking to we work out some parameters, which we can easily accomplish through electric mail or, I can meet you at your work parking lot in my bathrobe... the ball's in your court.
    Seriously, I have quite a few ideas I'd like to float by you.
    Is there an official Bbref way to contact you?

11. Justin's greatness Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 9:08 am

    [...] [...]

12. Dave Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 9:16 am

    I can honestly say I did not see Verlander becoming this good.

13. Mets Maven Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 9:21 am

    @8

    Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax had 5 excellent seasons, whereas Denny McLain only had 2. If had been "hit by a bus" in 1969, he would've only had 7 major league seasons, and wouldn't qualify for the HOF. Dean and Koufax also undoubtedly benefited from being icons of their era, whereas McLain was anything but, even when at his peak.

14. Richard Chester Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 10:30 am

    Just for the record Red Ruffing had just 40 wins in his first 191 games but wound up with 273 career wins.

    @5 Raschi did serve in the military during WW II.

15. Lawrence Azrin Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 10:55 am

    @8, @13 - Denny McLain's HOF qualifications if his career ended after 1969-

    Yes, I know he wouldn't be HOF-eligible because of less than 10 MLB seasons played, but an interesting comparison is with another streaking meteor, "Smokey" Joe Wood:

    WOOD: 117W-57L/ 1430 IP/ 146 ERA%
    MCLAIN: 110W-50L/ 1434 IP/ 110 ERA% (estimated)

    This is with subtracting McLain's record after 1969.

    Interesting that a big 30+ win/WS season was the highlight of both of their careers... Despite the lesser W/L%, I think Wood had a considerably better career - in only one year (1968, of course) did a McLain seasonal ERA% exceeed Wood's _career_ ERA%.

    Wood got HOF votes nine separate years, peaking at 18%, so it's not as if he never got consideration. I think the "short career/ great peak" HOF line ends with Dizzy Dean (and some people feel that Dean does not belong in the HOF).

    Useless factoids about McLain I have finally found an outlet for:
    - he recorded an LP of organ instrumentals for Capitol Records
    - he was married to Lou Boudreau's daughter

16. Neil L. Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 11:47 am

    Interesting, that on your first list, JA, only six out of the thirteen pitchers, including Verlander Clemons, and Gooden, won all their games as a starter. The other seven, including Marichal, Feller, Oswalt and others won at least one of their games out of the pen.

17. Josh Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 12:11 pm

    Interesting that Mulder only won one more game in his career. He's still only 34, but hasn't pitched since '08.

18. Luis Gomez Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 12:42 pm

    Did the Padres pass on Verlander on the amateur draft because they thought they could not sign him? Or they really liked this Bush kid?
    I think MLB should review draft rules concerning signing bonuses. Small market teams don't sign big name free agents and sometimes they don't even sign their first round draftees.

19. John Autin Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    @18, Luis -- According to his Bullpen page, Verlander's signing bonus and total compensation were not outrageous, although that doesn't answer whether the Padres feared they wouldn't sign him.

    The difficulty with addressing signing bonuses is that any measure would have to be negotiated with the players' union as part of the Basic Agreement. I wouldn't expect the union to be keen on the idea, and I don't blame them. An amateur coming into the pro game has so little control over the first several years of employment; it doesn't seem right that he should have to give up one of the things he can influence.

    I'm in favor of MLB trying to address the general inequalities in revenue. But I don't think they should start from the premise that every existing MLB team has a god-given right to both turn a profit and be a contender, in their current city.

    BTW, I've been enjoying your memories of growing up a baseball fan in Mexicali.

20. Doug Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 1:17 pm

    Early days, but Verlander could be on a 300 win track. Will probably need to pitch effectively to 40 (or beyond), but it's not inconceivable.

    Also, barring a major collapse the rest of the way, Verlander should become the first qualifying Tiger starter since Jeff Robsinson in 1988 with an ERA under 3.

21. Detroit Michael Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 1:44 pm

    I don't remember the Padres passing on Verlander due to signability issues.

    Before that year's draft, I do recall one of the authors then at BaseballProspectus.com writing that Verlander was a high burnout risk due to his college career. Just because the prediction turned out wrong (in a sample size of one player) doesn't mean it wasn't a good observation. The Tigers had a couple of high profile pitchers selected in the years right before Verlander that did blow out their arms quickly, so perhaps (at that time) the Tigers were more willing to ignore that kind of red flag than other organizations were.

22. Neil L. Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 2:27 pm

    @20
    Doug, see #2, where Johnny is projecting about Verlander with the Favorite Toy. It's not a crystal ball, but gives a statistical probability.

23. Doug Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 2:36 pm

    @22.

    Thanks, Neil.

    Yeah, 11% seems about right to me for a probability.

    Because of his age, Verlander is tracking to guys like McDowell, Pettitte, Martinez, Hentgen etc. in terms of similarity. So, it would be a long shot if he could continue his pace for another 12 years or so.

    But, if he can post 3 or 4 20-win seasons during the peak years he is starting to enter, the path up the mountain is not quite so steep.

24. Luis Gomez Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 2:45 pm

    @19 JA.
    Thank you.

    And regarding the Draft, I think you are right. And let's not forget how inexact a sciencie the draft is, I mean, for every 1st rounder like Brien Taylor there's a late rounder like Mike Piazza.

25. Neil L. Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 3:18 pm

    @21 and @24
    D. Michael and Luis, I think drafting a pitcher is inherently more risky than an other position player because of the strain put on the elbow and shoulder joint with every pitch.

    Every team has to draft pitchers; you can't afford not to. But projecting college and low-minor-league pitching stats to the majors for pitchers is much less certain, I believe, than for other position players.

    Perhaps Detroit got lucky by ignoring the Baseball Prospectus forecast that Justin Verlander was at risk, if D. Michaels is correct in #21.

26. Detroit Michael Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 4:58 pm

    Following up on post 21:
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2928
    "Verlander is, by most accounts, a really nice kid, but if your local GM drafts him, think about moving." So at least some folks thought he was far from a "can't miss" draftee. Article has a chart showing how his workload and ERA both rose during Verlander's college career.

    Let me make clear that a bad outcome doesn't mean the observations weren't valid at the time.

    A later BP article by a different author noted that Verlander hit 99 mph in college but that his statistics were pretty unimpressive for a guy with his stuff.

27. Hal Jordan Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 5:22 pm

    Just wanted to make one correction...C.C. Sabathia did not have 136 wins through age 28. He had 136 wins through seasonal age 28. I know it is a minor point, but I am also a stats buff like you, John A. Weird, wild, stuff though!!

28. John Autin Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 5:56 pm

    @27, Hal Jordan -- Thanks for the correction re: age vs. seasonal age. Not a minor point at all. I've amended the post and added a footnote defining seasonal age.

29. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 7:32 pm

    I don't know what the Padres or anyone else thought of Verlander, but Matt Bush was definitely considered a "signability" pick. He was not regarded as a good choice at #1.

30. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 7:40 pm

    I'll offer a mild defense of Brien Taylor. He has to be considered a bust, but not in the same way that, say, Matt Bush was. He injured his shoulder in an off-season fight and was never able to throw the ball over the plate after that. Before that, he wasn't a can't-miss prospect (too many walks), but he was doing pretty well and probably would have managed a useful MLB career. That wasn't a scouting failure (unless the Yankees should have known he had a tendency to get in fights -- and I've never heard that the fight was his fault).

    I also make myself feel better with the knowledge that if the Yanks didn't draft Taylor, they would have taken Mike Kelly, who did nothing. (My recollection is that they were trying to decide between the two almost until draft day.)

    Of course, Manny Ramirez was playing right across the Harlem River....he got picked 13th.

31. John Autin Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 8:59 pm

    JT, re: Taylor's fight not his fault -- You made me curious, since I've forgotten whatever I'd read about it at the time. FWIW, here's what's on Wikipedia, with the standard caveat:
    ---------------------------
    On December 18, 1993 the normally mild-mannered Taylor suffered a dislocated left shoulder and torn labrum while defending his brother Brenden in a fistfight. The New York Times reported that Taylor confronted a man named Ron Wilson, who had fought with in Harlowe, North Carolina. Brenden suffered head lacerations in his fight with Wilson. Once Taylor found out his brother had been hurt, he and a cousin went to Wilson's trailer home to confront him. There, Taylor got into an altercation with Jamie Morris, Wilson's friend, and Taylor fell on his shoulder.[2] According to Wilson, Taylor attempted to throw a haymaker at Morris, and missed, which caused the injury (similar to how Sonny Liston dislocated his shoulder by missing a number of hard punches in his first fight with Muhammad Ali).
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brien_Taylor
    ---------------------------
    If that's a reasonably accurate description, I'd say Brien Taylor bears a lot of blame for poor judgment. If you go to the trailer home of some guy who fought with your brother, even without meaning to fight, the odds are pretty good that something physical will go down.

32. Neil L. Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 9:11 pm

    @31
    John Autin, you will be all over C.C. Sabathia's 3 HR's allowed in one inning later tonight, I assume?

33. John Autin Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 10:13 pm

    Neil -- No, actually, I decided to wait and see if it got any juicier. Patience rewarded.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13956

34. Mike L Says:
    August 12th, 2011 at 11:52 pm

    JA, it was not only juicy, it was seared to perfection.

35. Charles Says:
    August 13th, 2011 at 12:22 am

    @15 Joe Wood's pitching career ended because of arm problems. He continued in the majors with Cleveland, as an outfielder, hitting nearly 0.300 from 1918 to 1922 and playing in a 2nd WS in 1920.

36. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 13th, 2011 at 2:03 am

    JA/31, thanks. To be clear, I didn't mean to imply that Taylor was not to blame. I had just never heard that he was to blame. And nothing in there about a bar....so much for relying on memory.

    I won't blame a guy for defending his brother, even if he sort of went on the offensive to do so. But he must wonder "what if" every day. I hope he's doing well.

37. Ed Says:
    August 13th, 2011 at 1:24 pm

    ESPN just had an article on the 2004 draft. According to the article, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew were considered the top two talents in the draft, but both dropped due to signability concerns (both were Boras clients). The article also briefly mentions that there were concerns about Verlander's potential contract demands as well.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/14480/verlander-weaver-and-the-2004-draft

38. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 13th, 2011 at 8:01 pm

    Ahh yes, if I had bothered to look at the draft I would have remembered that about Weaver. There was some talk he would go straight to the majors, if and when he ever signed. He actually spent 153 IP in the minors before his call up.

39. Verlander Wields Quartet of Weapons » Google Plus | Google | Google Plus + | One Google Nedir | Says:
    August 16th, 2011 at 10:06 pm

    [...] Verlander notched his 100th win for the Tigers on Thursday, and his 54th in his last 90 starts. Verlander is racking up victories [...]