The Claw and The Freak
Posted by John Autin on September 21, 2011
If the Giants are indeed done -- pending their own Wednesday outcome, they trail Arizona by 6 full games, and Atlanta by 4 for the wild card -- then Clayton Kershaw is as much to blame as anyone outside the organization. Ditto if Tim Lincecum finishes at or below .500 for the first time in his career.
In 6 starts against LA's archrival, Kershaw went 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA, with 49 Ks and 8 walks in 42 IP. The two aces squared off 4 times, and all were worthy duels -- three 2-1 games and a 1-zip. Kershaw won 'em all, and the challenge seemed to bring out his best: in 30.1 IP, he allowed 2 runs (1 ER) on 16 hits, with 5 walks and 36 Ks. Not that Lincecum struggled: 5 runs (4 ER) in 29 IP, but an 0-3 record.
The first face-off was scoreless into the last of the 6th, and the next saw zeroes until the 7th. In the third, Lincecum led 1-0 from the 2nd through 7th, but LA scored singletons in the last two frames. And last night, Kershaw carried a 2-0 lead from the 3rd through the 7th, then found trouble in the 8th until he was bailed out by a couple of Ks from the K machine, Kenley Jansen.
Even their batter-pitcher matchups were the slimmest of wins for Kershaw: both went 0-8 with 4 Ks, but Kershaw managed a walk and 3 sacrifices, while Lincecum had neither. Each is hitless against the other in his career.
Lincecum and Kershaw had faced each other only once before this season, but neither was sharp and each got no decision.
Can you think of other ace matchups that lived up to their billing over the course of a season? For you P-I sleuths, perhaps the "Batter vs. Pitcher" links can provide some leads.
Notes:
- With at most 1 more start for each of the NL Cy Young Award contenders, the odds seem to have swung strongly in favor of Kershaw, even if both versions of WAR (B-R, FG ) tap Roy Halladay. Kershaw is sitting on the Triple Crown -- 20 wins (tied), 2.27 ERA and 242 strikeouts -- and no one has ever wrested a CYA away from a Triple Crown winner.
- The Dodgers have gone 20-7 from August 22, getting over .500 for the first time since April.
- It's odd that both the Cy Young and the MVP (Matt Kemp) might come from a team that was never in contention, but the same thing almost happened in 1987.
- Jansen has struck out 2 or more in 10 straight relief games, the longest streak in the past 2 years; he's fanned 25 of 40 batters in the streak. For the season, he has 87 Ks in 49.1 IP, fanning 43.1% of all batters. Among all seasons of at least 40 IP, only 2 had a higher K percentage -- Billy Wagner, 43.6% in 1999, and Eric Gagne, 44.8% in his 2003 CYA season. Measured by SO per 9 IP, only Carlos Marmol (16.0 last year) had a higher rate than Jansen's 15.9. He had a rough start to his season -- a 6.43 ERA through May -- but he's been virtually untouchable since then, with 52 Ks, 8 hits and 2 runs in his last 28.1 IP.
September 21st, 2011 at 11:39 pm
WHY HAVE I NEVER HEARD OF KENLEY JANSEN UNTIL NOW?!
September 21st, 2011 at 11:40 pm
There are too many teams. I just can't keep up with everybody.
September 21st, 2011 at 11:51 pm
Can you think of other ace matchups that lived up to their billing over the course of a season?
I immediately recalled Gooden and Valenzuela having a bunch of matchups in the mid-80s. Let's see.
5/25/85: Gooden strikes out 9 over 7 innings, but allows 3 runs to lose as Fernando pitches a 6-hit CG. This dropped Gooden to 6-3 on the season. I've always recalled John Tudor got off to a slow start (W-L-wise, at least) in '85, and then went nuts over the last ~4 months. Didn't remember that about Gooden, who went 18-1 after this game.
6/4/85: Gooden with a CG victory, with 12 Ks. Valenzuela matched him until the 9th, when 4 singles, a walk, and a couple productive outs knocked him out of the game.
9/6/85: Doc pitches 9 shutout innings. So does Fernando. Under the rules governing MLB, the game must go to extra innings. Doc is relieved. Fernando is not. He pitches 11 shutout innings (no one has done that since 1990). The game still continued until Darryl Strawberry hit a 2-run double in the top of the 13th.
Great info on Kershaw-Lincecum. That would be big MVP points for Kershaw in my book, if only LA was fighting SF for a playoff spot.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:10 am
@1 It's a crying shame. Imagine if he was on the Yankees. "Kenley Jansen, the next Mo?"
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:17 am
If I read it right, could this be the first season since 1924 when there is a triple-crown for both AL and NL? So we get Verlander and Kershaw matching Johnston and Dazzy Vance.
That is kind of neat.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:47 am
Shields went over 240 IP tonight, joining Verlander.
There's a chance as many as 5 pitchers could hit that mark this year. Sabathia is almost certain. Felix Hernandez and Jered Weaver are probable if they get two more starts, which each is on track for, assuming their teams stay with no more than a 5 man-rotation the rest of the way.
If it happens, will be the first time since 2000 that 5 pitchers have hit that mark in the same year, and the first time since 2005 that more than 2 hurlers have done it any any single year.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:50 am
@1, JT -- Jansen is a converted hitter. Exactly how nobody realized what an arm he had (in contrast to his hitting ability) until after his pro career began, I can't explain.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:02 am
I was thinking of Marichal & Koufax in the early 60's but in the epic 1962 season as near as I can tell they never faced each other at all. In '65, there was another close race between SF & LA, they met once (Marichal winning) but Marichal faced Drysdale at least 3 times that year (going 2-1) and none of the games were particularly close.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:20 am
Great stuff John! AndHartvig read my mind at #8. I wonder if Koufax-Gibson was any more titilating? Or how 'bout Spahn-Antonelli?
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:25 am
...I'd actually pay $1000 or more to see either one of those now! And one more: How 'bout Dodgers/Giants with Maglie vs. Newcombe? (even tho they became teammates later)
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:26 am
@3 and ace matchups
Marichal and Drysdale had a lot of matchups in the 60s, much more than Marichal and Koufax. Here's how they fared head to head, when each figured in the decision.
- 1961 - Drysdale 1-0
- 1963 - Marichal 3-1
- 1965 - Marichal 2-1
- 1966 - Marichal 3-0
- 1967 - Marichal 1-0
- 1968 - Marichal 1-0
- 1960, 62, 64, 69 - no matchups
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:55 am
@3 - Thanks for bringing up the Gooden-Valenzuela matchups of 1985. I happened to be at the 9/6 game ... still the best game I've seen in person.
September 22nd, 2011 at 1:56 am
I think the all time epic "Ace" vs "Ace" was Marichal vs Spahn, July 2, 1963- Juan Marichal (25 yrs old, 12-3 at time, would finish year 25-8, 2.41) vs Warren Spahn (42 yrs old, 11-3, would finish year 23-7, 2.60) 16 innings, both throw complete games, Spahn loses giving up a home run to Willie Mays with one out in 16th. Spahn's line- 15.1-9-1-1-1-2 Marichal's line- 16-8-0-0-4-10. Not gonna see anybody doing that these days. And of course, they managed to get it all done in a crisp 4:10 , which these days is a regulation NY-BOS game.
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:10 am
btw, also noticed that in Spahn's start previous to his matchup with Marichal he shutout the Dodgers and Don Drysdale 1-0. I guess if you liked pitching the 60's was the time to be.
September 22nd, 2011 at 8:36 am
I have no idea how to research this, but how about Carlton-Seaver? Maybe someone could help me out.
September 22nd, 2011 at 8:38 am
A bit off topic from the rest of the comments but since John mentioned it in the original post...all but one of the prior triple crown winners have also led the league in WAR for pitchers, often by a considerable margin. Meaning the Cy Young choice was a no-brainer.
This year is a but different in that Kershaw's numbers aren't that different from Halladay's. I think the bigger problem for Halladay is the presence of Cliff Lee on his own team since Lee also has similar numbers.
BTW. the one triple crown winner who didn't lead the league in WAR for pitchers was Koufax in '65. He was third behind Marichal and Bunning.
September 22nd, 2011 at 8:48 am
Checked 1972 season- Seaver gave Carlton two of his ten losses in his triple crown year.
5-21-72 Seaver 7 ip 3 er's
Carlton 9ip 4 er's
Mets win 4-3
9-24-72
Seaver 8.1 ip 1 er
Carlton 8 ip 1 er
Mets win 2-1 on an unearned run.
September 22nd, 2011 at 9:13 am
More:
4-6-73 Carlton 7 ip 3 er/ Seaver 7.2 ip 0er Mets win 3-0
4-8-75 Carlton 8 ip 2 er/ Seaver 9ip 1 er Mets win 2-1
9-3-76 Carlton 6 ip 1 er/ Seaver 9ip 0 er Mets win 1-0
8-26-77 Carlton 7ip 3 er/ Seaver 9 ip 2 er Reds win 4-2
Looks like Seaver owned the Phillies. Of course he owned a lot of teams.
September 22nd, 2011 at 9:46 am
I'm a bit younger, but I remember one season had Maddux and Schilling going at it often in the early season. I'll be right back....
Okay, I'm back. It was 1998. April 5th in Atlanta, Maddux gives up 2 runs (1 earned on a DP, 1 unearned on a sac fly) on 5 hits in 8 innings, Schilling goes the distance with 1 run on 5 hits and 15 K's to win 2-1.
Five days later, they go at it again. April 10th in Philly, Maddux scatters 5 hits (one by Schilling) in 8 innings, leaves with a 0-0 tie, only for Lieberthal to win it in the bottom of the ninth. Schilling goes the distance again with a 2-hit shutout and 10 K's.
More research: They faced off 9 times in their careers.
5/15/93: Schilling 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 K, ND (West blows lead in 8th), Maddux 8 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, W
6/21/93: Schilling 2.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, L; Maddux 8 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, W
5/11/94: Schilling 7 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, L; Maddux 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 6 K, W
5/7/95: Schilling 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 6 K, W: Maddux 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, ND
4/5/98, 4/10/98 (already mentioned)
8/2/00: Schilling 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 4 K, W; Maddux 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, L
9/7/00: Schilling 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7 K, L; Maddux 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 K, W
8/17/03: Schilling 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 12 K, W: Maddux 8 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, L
Overall in the 9 starts:
Maddux 9 GS, 66.2 IP, 49 H, 11 ER, 1 SHO (4-3, 1.49)
Schilling 9 GS, 64.1 IP, 49 H, 19 ER, 3 CG, 2 SHO (5-3, 2.66)
From 1998 to 2003 (when their primes crossed):
Maddux 5 GS, 39 IP, 26 H, 4 ER, 1 SHO (1-3, 0.92)
Schilling 5 GS, 41 H, 21 H, 5 ER, 3 CG, 2 SHO (4-1, 1.10)
Long post, but it's an interesting rivalry. Maddux peaked before Schilling and you see that in their early matchups, but then they became must-see TV in their five matchups when both were at the top of their game. The finals of those games were 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 4-0, and 2-0.
September 22nd, 2011 at 10:58 am
@1 & 7- I think Jansen was a converted catcher, specifically. So I would imagine they knew he had a good throwing arm, just maybe not this good. I think Randy Wells on the Cubs is a converted catcher as well.
September 22nd, 2011 at 11:33 am
I'm not a play index subscriber, but two more suggestions from a much earlier era -
Joe Wood and Walter Johnson in 1912
Pete Brown and Christy Matthewson in 1908 (or other years)
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:06 pm
If Kershaw and Kemp win the CYA and MVP, I think you could say they both deserve it. Kershaw has really come on strong, and I think the triple crown will lock it up for him. As mentioned above, the Phillies pitchers will split votes... but let's be clear: other than WAR, neither Lee nor Halladay has a compelling argument against Kershaw's case.
As for Kemp, he's just had a tremendous year all around. Very balanced: hitting very well despite very little support from his teammates, stealing bases, everyday player, great fielder at a high leverage position. And he's running away with the WAR discussion. I think both are strong candidates, Kemp even moreso than Kershaw.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:10 pm
@20, Jiffy -- You're right -- Kenley Geronimo Jansen (from Willemstad, Curacao) was originally a catcher. And he wasn't the worst hitter ever; he drew some walks, had a little power, and his K rate wasn't terrible. He just wasn't making any progress as a hitter.
I note that in his young MLB career, he's 1 for 1 with a walk.
I do hope that he some day gets the chance to pitch and get behind the plate in the same game. Since 1919, there have been 11 such performances, but none by a genuine pitcher -- none of those 10 guys (Rick Cerone did it twice) had more than 2 career games pitched.
Dee Moore is an interesting case -- the only one of those guys to start the game on the mound (2 scoreless IP) and then don the tools. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and 3 runs:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN193609270.shtml
It was the last game of the year, and the 6th game of Moore's career. He actually came up through the minors as a catcher/pitcher/OF/3B; in 1935-36, he went 16-5, 3.02 on the mound, while batting well over .300 with some power (led the 1936 Sally League in total bases).
His first 3 appearances with the '36 Reds were as a pinch-hitter, without playing the field. He made his mound debut on Sept. 20, pitching the last 5 innings (yielding 1 unearned run) after Paul Derringer got knocked out early. He struck out in both ABs that game, but in the 2nd game of a doubleheader that day, he had a pinch-hit RBI triple off Red Lucas.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT193609201.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT193609202.shtml
It was a fascinating and promising start to his career; Dee Moore was only 22 in 1936, he had a 0.00 ERA in 7 IP, and went 4 for 10 with 2 doubles and a triple. But something derailed him; he played just 7 games with the '37 Reds, then was out of the majors until 1943 when rosters were depleted by the war.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:13 pm
Correction on my #23 -- Cesar Tovar also was the starting pitcher and then moved directly to catcher, in his "all-9-positions" stunt:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN196809220.shtml
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:25 pm
I'd like to point out that César Tovar is now close to getting a mention on all of today's blog topics for feats that he accomplished in different seasons. Besides his pitcher-to-catcher move in 1968, he played in 164 games in 1967, and finished ninth in the AL in 1970 in total bases. Just another indication of Tovar's versatility.
Under the rules governing MLB, the game must go to extra innings.
Twisto, that is a fine piece of narration. Made me laugh.
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:15 pm
My biggest argument on the Kershaw/Lincecum matchup's are this:
The Dodgers have a triple crown threatening player in Matt Kemp and a better lineup overall than the Giants do. The lack of run support for Lincecum this year is unbelievable at barely 2.8 runs per 9/IP. Lincecum has 7 tough losses this year to Kershaw's 1. Factor in that Lincecum has been pitching to Eli Whiteside for the entire year minus his first 3 starts as well as the season ending Buster Posey injury. If there was a "unlucky" stat, Tim's face would grace it's cover.
Kershaw has 1ER in 6 starts vs. the Giants crap lineup. His Cy Young and triple crown should have an asterisk by it stating" 20% of all my numbers were directly from the AAA hitting ball club in SF".
Lincecum isn't getting any recognition for CY Young(not that he deserves to win or anything) but he's been totally left out because of his ungodly lineup. Lincecum should be the 4th or 5th place finisher in my eyes behind Kershaw, Halladay, Lee and maybe Kennedy.
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:16 pm
@22 Pcg I think the other argument that Cy Young voters can make in favor of Halladay or Lee is that their accomplishments were performed under more pressure. Though since the Phillies ran away with the division, it's hard to see that argument holding much sway.
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:17 pm
They weren't always pitchers duels like Kershaw-Lincecum but ti seemed like every time Pedro pitched against the Yankees he was matched up against Mussina. Can someone find the numbers on the frequency of their head to head starts?
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:49 pm
@28, GTB -- Here are links to Pedro's starts for Boston against the Yankees; I don't have time right now to find the games in which Mussina opposed him:
Regular season:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=s5A64
Postseason:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=zMmWX
September 22nd, 2011 at 3:44 pm
@8: Marichal and Koufax only faced each other 4 times total in their careers!
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Based on wins alone, which seems to be the knock on kershaw for going against the Giants 'AAA' offense, here is Roy Halladay's record this season. He beats the bad teams and doesn't beat the good teams. Obviously some is luck, but...:
x = team has losing record
- = team at .500
o = team has winning record
was 3-0 x
nym 2-0 x
sdp 2-0 x
pit 2-0 x
oak 1-0 x
tor 1-0 o (+1 above .500)
col 1-0 x
cin 1-0 x
lad 1-0 - (even)
hou 1-0 x
tex 1-0 o
mil 1-1 o
chc 1-1 x
ari 0-1 o
fla 0-1 x
atl 0-1 o
stl 0-1 o
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:32 pm
ti seemed like every time Pedro pitched against the Yankees he was matched up against Mussina.
I was thinking about this earlier. I remember in Mussina's first season with the Yanks, he pitched against Martinez 2 or 3 times. Then the next time he was scheduled to do so again, Torre shuffled the rotation so he wouldn't have to, saying something like it was too much pressure for the guy. Why the hell did you pay him so much money if not to be an ace?
September 22nd, 2011 at 4:42 pm
Well, the data doesn't seem to quite support my memory. Mussina pitched against the Red Sox twice in April 2001, both vs. Frank Castillo. Then he matched up against Pedro on 5/24 and 5/30. Then he matched up against David Cone on 9/2 and 9/8. Now, Pedro had pitched vs the Yankees on 9/1 and 9/7. But it does not look like Mussina was pushed back to avoid Martinez, because his 9/2 start was on 4 days' rest. (The next one was on 5 days' rest, but there was an off-day in there.)
Maybe it happened in 2002? No...he faced Martinez twice. All his 5 starts vs Boston were on 4 days' rest.
September 22nd, 2011 at 5:58 pm
@8: Marichal and Koufax actually hooked up twice in '65. The first game, on 5/9, was won by Marichal. The second matchup, on 8/22, was the infamous game where Marichal was tossed in the third inning for attacking John Roseboro with his bat.
September 22nd, 2011 at 9:08 pm
@3 Twisto: "Under the rules governing MLB, the game must go to extra innings."
Of course a game in which the score is tied goes to extra innings. How else can it be resolved? Your statement makes it seem as if this was unique to MLB at that time, and as if it was unusual.
September 22nd, 2011 at 9:50 pm
Well, at least Kahuna laughed.
September 22nd, 2011 at 10:21 pm
For the record, I laughed as well, and could imagine John Facenda reading it aloud.
September 22nd, 2011 at 10:44 pm
Speaking of the Giants, how amusing is it that they got all caught up in that ESPN show, "Outside the Lines," about how great they (and Wilson's beard) are. IMO, the show portrayed them as a somewhat arrogant team that assumed they were going to win again despite all their injuries, and now they're not even back in the playoffs - just another overrated defending champion.
September 22nd, 2011 at 11:49 pm
"Under the rules governing MLB, the game must go to extra innings."
What's the point of having free expression if you can't drop a well-timed non sequitur when the mood takes you? "How you hum, JT! Let's slip 'im the ol' dark one now!"
(BTW, having been disappointed by the language of the MLB rules a few times in recent months, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a gray area in there somewhere about continuing play past the 9th. I bet that Billy Martin had a loophole up his sleeve, just waiting for the right moment....)
September 23rd, 2011 at 1:19 am
38- You're right. They were overrated. I mean come on, all they did was win the World Series. Not that big a deal.
But to be factual, they lost their Rookie of the Year catcher for most of the season, their 3rd baseman for over a month, 2/5 of their starting rotation for most of the year, their All Star Closer had 2 stints on the DL, their set up man had a DL trip, as did their starting RF (Ross to start the season, then Schierholtz, then Beltran) as well as the CF, LF, 2b, and SS. Their top prospect had to start the season in the majors when he probably was not quite ready, then went to the DL as well.
And yet they still managed to finish over .500 and hang around the playoff races until the middle of September. What an utter failure.
And I still can't help but think that if Bochy actually had trusted in the young guys more and if Sabean had went out and got a catcher who was an actual Major League catcher (wouldn't have had to be more than a Miguel Olivo or Rod Barajas type) that they might have taken the D'backs right down to this last week.
September 23rd, 2011 at 7:23 am
We could possibly have the NL pitching Triple Crown, Cy Young Award, batting Triple Crown , and MVP winners all come from the same team in 2011. Has this ever happened before???
Very intriguing indeed...
September 23rd, 2011 at 7:49 am
@41 Dan:
The only time a team had both a pitching and hitting triple crown winner was 1934, when Lou Gehrig (.363, 49, 165) and Lefty Gomez (26-5, 2.33, 158 K) did it for the Yankees. Despite Gehrig having by far the highest WAR in the league (10.7 to 9.5), Mickey Cochrane won the MVP award that year (4.3 WAR for .320, 2 HR on the pennant-winning Tigers). There was no Cy Young Award yet, but if there was, it would have been a toss-up between Gomez and Schoolboy Rowe (also of the Tigers, 24-8).
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:21 am
@42, Ryan -- Cochrane '34 was a "Terry Pendleton/Kirk Gibson" type of MVP selection -- he "taught them how to win."
And while it's silly to think that Cochrane was more "valuable" than Gehrig that year, he was a hell of a player. And the Tigers hadn't contended in about 15 years before he came aboard. (Didn't hurt that '34 was also the year Greenberg matured.)
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:43 am
@40, Pauley -- Why complicate the SF explanation with all that stuff about pitchers, when in fact the Giants are 2nd in the NL in ERA and ERA+, and their rotation has been more stable than most?
They just didn't have enough hitting. As you noted, the loss of Posey hurt a lot, compounded by the failure to replace him with a credible hitter. Counting on Huff this year, after a surprisingly good 2010, was a classic blunder. They let Rowand hang around another year, with predictable results.
Sabean waited too long to make the Beltran deal. The need was obvious soon after Posey went down in late May; the Giants averaged no more than 3.73 R/G in any of the first 3 months. I'm sure he could have gotten Beltran a month or two sooner for the same price he wound up paying.
And speaking of Bochy not trusting the young guys ... I can't believe Huff started at 1B last night, instead of Brett Pill. Yeah, Pill only has 8 games under his belt -- but he has 6 extra-base hits and 8 RBI in those 8 games. Huff (who went 0-4) has 15 RBI in over 200 PAs since the Break, and his OPS has flatlined around .680 all year. Play the kid, already!
September 23rd, 2011 at 9:04 pm
@40 Pauley: I didn't mean to take anything away from what the Giants accomplished in 2010. I was only pointing out how the 2011 Giants were overrated in the same way as defending world champs often are. Have you ever noticed how often the "experts" incorrectly pick the defending champion to repeat?