Ortiz is having a truly bizarre season.

He, like teammate Manny Ramirez, has only 19 HR to this point. He projects to 28 HRs and 101 RBIs, which although fine numbers, are far below his typical production for the Red Sox. Over 2004 to 2006, Ortiz averaged 47 HR and 141 RBI.

Meanwhile, however, his BA and OBP are currently far better than any figures he's previously posted for Boston. His batting average stands at .323 (previous high for Boston is .301) and his on-base percentage is .435 (previous high for Boston is .413.)

So what are the possible reasons for Ortiz' change? (I don't want to say "decline" because it's pretty tough to imply that a season with 100 RBI, .320 BA, and .430 OBP is not an excellent season.)

There are a bunch:

• First and foremost is his knee injury. He revealed that his knee has been injured since last year but that it is bothering him far more this year. This alone could be the difference, limiting his ability to drive the ball, but having no impact on his overall hitting ability.
• The next most obvious factor is Manny Ramirez' decline. Here, it really can be called a decline. He's on pace for 28 HR and 105 RBI, both well below his averages with Boston. While his BA and OBP are toward the lower end of his historical performance with Boston, his SLG has fallen off the table, currently more than 80 points lower than his previous worst with the Sox. What's the fallout? Well, you'd think that Ortiz would see fewer pitches to hit since he bats ahead of Manny. But the numbers don't immediately back that up: Ortiz is on pace to walk 108 times in 152 games, right along his career averages the last few years.
• The next issue would be baserunners. Players tend to hit better with baserunners, because they usually get more pitches to hit. With Julio Lugo having such a rough first half, maybe Ortiz batted with fewer runners on. But his splits don't support that theory. Over 2004-2006, Ortiz had 276, 289, and 284 at-bats with runners on base (incredibly consistent Boston offense..geez!) This year, he's got 200 such at-bats now, projecting to 298 for the season. With runners in scoring position, 2004-2006 he had 160, 162, and 156 at-bats, and projects this year to 159. So the data simply doesn't support the idea that he's hitting with fewer baserunners.
• Even the RBIs with men on still work out. With men on (in any configuration), Ortiz averaged about .310/.420/.590 from 2004 to 2006. His numbers were very consistent. This year, he's hitting .345/.452/.565. His SLG is off a little, due to less power, but his BA is very high. We already established in the previous point that the overall number of baserunners is the same. Yet, in 2004-2006 he knocked in 116, 119, and 104 baserunners (this is RBIs in at-bats with baserunners, so that includes knocking himself in on a HR), but this year is on pace for only 85 RBI. That difference of about 20 RBI is just about the same as the number of homers he's missing. If he had 30-35 HR now, he'd be on pace for 115 or so RBI when hitting with baserunners on, right on his recent average.

I conclude, therefore, that there's nothing "wrong" with David Ortiz. He's getting his usual number of hits and walks, and he's hitting just as well with runners on. The only thing he's not doing is hitting the ball out of the park. That may be due to the knee injury and/or the possibility that he's adjusted his approach to focus on line drives. The fact of the matter is that he's still creating a ton of runs and remains an extremely valuable player.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 7th, 2007 at 10:20 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.