Tim Raines
Posted by Andy on August 20, 2007
There is an absolutely fantastic interview with Tim Raines over here at Baseball Prospectus (shout out to the guys over at The Book for pointing it out.) I'll let you read the interview on your own, but I'll use the PI to point out a few of the things that Raines mentions.
It's nice to see his emphasis on OBP. As you can see from Raines' main page, he was in the top 10 in the NL OBP 7 times, leading in the same year as his batting time (1986.)
He mentioned his first at-bat came against Nolan Ryan. That surprised me, and it's also not true. He appeared in 6 games in 1979, none against Ryan's team, but only as a pinch-runner. Then on May 28, 1980 he pinch-hit for Bill Almon in the 11th inning, flying out to left field. That was against Dick Tidrow of the Cubs. Later in the same game, he walked. His next major league game wasn't until July 25th of that year, and indeed it was against Nolan Ryan of the Astros. Raines played sporadically during the rest of 1980, becoming a regular in 1981.
Raines did pretty well in his career against Ryan:
Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +----+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ 1980 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 1 0 0 0 0 0 1981 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .167 .334 0 0 0 0 0 0 1982 12 10 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 .100 .250 .200 .450 0 0 0 0 0 0 1983 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .100 .100 .100 .200 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .500 .600 .500 1.100 0 0 0 0 0 0 1985 10 7 2 1 0 0 0 3 2 .286 .500 .429 .929 0 0 0 0 0 0 1986 11 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 .091 .091 .091 .182 0 0 0 0 1 0 1987 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 0 0 1988 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 .667 .750 1.000 1.750 0 0 1 0 0 0 1991 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 .500 .571 .500 1.071 0 0 0 0 0 0 1992 5 5 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 .600 .600 1.200 1.800 0 0 0 0 0 0 1993 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 0 0 +----+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ TOT 79 70 18 4 1 0 1 8 18 .257 .333 .343 .676 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Most of those hits came in the second half of his campaign against Ryan. He was just 3 for 28 from 1980 to 1983.
Raines' performance against current HOFers is also not too shabby:
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ Steve Carlton 66 57 12 1 1 0 1 9 10 .211 .318 .263 .581 0 0 0 0 1 Dennis Eckersley 55 51 17 3 1 0 6 4 6 .333 .382 .431 .813 0 0 0 0 0 Fergie Jenkins 20 20 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 .200 .200 .300 .500 0 0 0 0 0 Phil Niekro 21 21 6 1 1 0 3 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .715 0 0 0 0 0 Gaylord Perry 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Nolan Ryan 79 70 18 4 1 0 1 8 18 .257 .333 .343 .676 1 0 1 0 1 Tom Seaver 32 27 6 1 1 0 1 5 3 .222 .344 .333 .677 0 0 0 0 0 Bruce Sutter 24 23 5 0 0 0 3 0 4 .217 .208 .217 .425 0 1 0 0 0 Don Sutton 14 12 5 1 0 1 1 2 1 .417 .500 .750 1.250 0 0 0 0 0
Of course this doesn't include a few bonus pitchers who will be HOFers one day:
Greg Maddux 51 43 12 3 0 2 3 7 3 .279 .392 .488 .880 0 0 3 1 1 Roger Clemens 53 47 10 3 1 0 2 6 12 .213 .302 .319 .621 0 0 0 0 0 Randy Johnson 30 27 7 1 0 1 3 3 7 .259 .333 .407 .740 0 0 0 0 1 Tom Glavine 22 18 4 0 0 0 4 3 4 .222 .318 .222 .540 0 1 1 0 0 Mariano Rivera 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 0 0 0 0 0
And Raines' top OPS figures, minimum 20 PA against:
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG **OPS** SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+---------+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ John Stuper 21 17 11 3 0 1 4 4 2 .647 .714 1.000 1.714 0 0 0 0 0 Mark Leiter 20 15 7 0 0 3 4 5 2 .467 .600 1.067 1.667 0 0 0 0 0 Ken Hill 27 20 11 3 1 0 5 7 2 .550 .667 .800 1.467 0 0 1 0 0 Al Holland 23 19 9 2 0 2 8 3 3 .474 .545 .895 1.440 1 0 0 0 0 David Palmer 23 19 9 2 1 1 2 4 2 .474 .565 .842 1.407 0 0 0 0 1 Dave LaPoint 47 37 17 2 3 2 4 9 5 .459 .553 .838 1.391 0 1 1 0 1 Bill Gullickson 54 47 18 3 1 5 10 7 2 .383 .463 .809 1.272 0 0 2 0 0 Craig Lefferts 29 25 11 3 1 1 5 3 4 .440 .483 .760 1.243 0 1 1 0 1 Tom Browning 29 28 12 4 0 2 2 1 2 .429 .448 .786 1.234 0 0 0 0 0
Here are the members of the 500-stolen base club since 1950, ranked by fewest career caught stealings:
Cnt Player CS SB From To
+----+-----------------+---+----+----+----+
1 Davey Lopes 114 557 1972 1987
2 Paul Molitor 131 504 1978 1998
3 Willie Wilson 134 668 1976 1994
4 Luis Aparicio 136 506 1956 1973
5 Barry Bonds 141 514 1986 2007
6 Tim Raines 146 808 1979 2002
7 Ozzie Smith 148 580 1978 1996
8 Kenny Lofton 158 620 1991 2007
9 Joe Morgan 162 689 1963 1984
10 Vince Coleman 177 752 1985 1997
11 Cesar Cedeno 179 550 1970 1986
12 Otis Nixon 186 620 1983 1999
13 Bert Campaneris 199 649 1964 1983
14 Maury Wills 208 586 1959 1972
15 Brett Butler 257 558 1981 1997
16 Lou Brock 307 938 1961 1979
17 Rickey Henderson 335 1406 1979 2003
And hey, let's rank these 17 guys buy SB%:
Tim Raines 146 808 84.7% Willie Wilson 134 668 83.3% Davey Lopes 114 557 83.0% Joe Morgan 162 689 81.0% Vince Coleman 177 752 80.9% Rickey Henderson 335 1406 80.8% Kenny Lofton 158 620 79.7% Ozzie Smith 148 580 79.7% Paul Molitor 131 504 79.4% Luis Aparicio 136 506 78.8% Barry Bonds 141 514 78.5% Otis Nixon 186 620 76.9% Bert Campaneris 199 649 76.5% Cesar Cedeno 179 550 75.4% Lou Brock 307 938 75.3% Maury Wills 208 586 73.8% Brett Butler 257 558 68.5%
Niiiice.....
And lastly, here is the box score for the 3-HR game that Raines mentions. It's from April 14, 1994.
August 20th, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Tim Raines compares interestingly with Tony Gwynn. Gwynn has 536 more hits; Raines has 540 more walks. When you add total bases + walks + hbp + (steals – caught stealing) and then subtract double plays hit into, you get these totals: Gwynn, 5007; Raines, 5665. Divide those by their number of plate appearances, and you get these percentages: Gwynn, .489; Raines, .547.
That is, for every time Tony Gwynn came to bat, there was a .489 likelihood that he would advance a base. Usually, he made an out; sometimes, he hit a double and stole third; but on average, he moved the Padres .489 of a base toward a run. Raines’s contribution was 12% greater, .547. One can argue that Tim Raines was, over 20 years, a measurably more potent offensive force for his teams.
August 20th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
David--nice thoughts.
I always liked Boggs, and especially Gwynn, as players, but it would certainly be fair to call them fairly one-dimensional. Gwynn had a lot of speed, and in some ways, it's hard to believe he wasn't more of an offensive force. You point out his main shortcoming, which is very low walk rates. I don't know to what degree this is true, but it would almost seem that he swung at some pithes out of the strike zone and turned them into hits, whereas other players may have drawn walks. A hit is certainly better than a walk since it can advance baserunners that are not forced (such as a runner on second), and can sometimes advance runners more than one base. But Gwynn had a just a 50-point difference between his career OBP and career BA (.388 vs .338). Boggs had a much bigger difference of 87 points (.415 vs .328), and Raines did too (91 points, .425 vs .294.)
Personally, I think Raines compares favorably with Gwynn, and roughly equal to Boggs. But the latter two guys were swept into the HOF quickly and I don't think Raines will be. I hope he makes it within a few years.
August 22nd, 2007 at 2:23 pm
[...] few days ago I made this post about Tim Raines, commenting on his recent interview with Baseball Prospectus. I (incorrectly) stated that Raines [...]
August 22nd, 2007 at 7:52 pm
In case you didn't get it from comment #3 above, I was wrong about Raines not facing Nolan Ryan in his very first at-bat. Please read the link in #3 above to see the explanation.