3-homer game early in career
Posted by Andy on August 4, 2009
A few days ago, Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates hit 3 homers in his 103rd career major-league game.
(CORRECTION: It was the Pirates' 103rd game this year but McCutchen's 51st career game. I already wrote the post below before I noticed the mistake, so let's just go with it...)
Here are all the guys since 1954 to hit 3 homers in one of his first 103 games:
Cnt CarGm Player Date Tm Opp GmReslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BOr Positions +----+-----+-----------------+-------------+---+----+-------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---------+ 1 51 Andrew McCutchen 2009-08-01 PIT WSN W 11-6 5 5 4 4 0 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1st CF 2 56 Joey Votto 2008-05-07 CIN CHC W 9-0 5 4 3 3 0 0 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5th 1B 3 103 Cody Ross 2006-09-11 FLA NYM W 16-5 5 5 3 4 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6th RF 4 57 Jonny Gomes 2005-07-30 TBD KCR W 7-3 4 4 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5th RF 5 36 Jose Ortiz 2001-08-17 COL FLA W 12-5 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2nd 2B 6 87 Trot Nixon 1999-07-24 BOS @DET W 11-4 4 4 3 3 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9th RF 7 10 Bobby Estalella 1997-09-04 PHI @MON W 6-4 4 4 3 3 0 0 3 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7th C 8 64 Ernie Young 1996-05-10 OAK MIN W 15-5 6 5 4 4 0 0 3 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1st CF 9 83 Mark McGwire 1987-06-27 OAK @CLE W 13-3 5 5 5 4 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4th 1B 10 69 Fred Lynn 1975-06-18 BOS @DET W 15-1 6 6 4 5 0 1 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4th CF 11 97 Bill Melton 1969-06-24(2) CHW @SEP W 7-6 5 5 3 4 1 0 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6th 3B 12 63 Joe Lahoud 1969-06-11 BOS @MIN W 13-5 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6th RF 13 70 Don Leppert 1963-04-11 WSA BOS W 8-0 4 4 3 3 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6th C 14 55 Don Demeter 1959-04-21 LAD SFG W 9-7 6 5 3 3 0 0 3 6 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4th CF 15 30 Norm Zauchin 1955-05-27 BOS WSH W 16-0 5 5 4 4 1 0 3 10 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5th 1B
This list is pretty interesting for a few reasons:
- The "high-offense" era we're currently in rears its head again, as half the guys on this list are from the last 14 seasons while just 7 come from 1987 or earlier.
- Somewhat surprisingly, this list isn't all that predictive for guys who'd go on to hit lots of homers. Of these 15 players, the only ones with at least 100 career homers are Nixon, McGwire, Lynn, Melton, and Demeter (although the jury is still out on McCutchen, Votto, Ross, and Gomes.)
- Every single game was won by the team with the player who hit 3 homers. That's a bit of a surprise in this day and age.
- There's quite a range in terms of production. Gomes had just 3 RBI, meaning he hit 3 solo homers. Zauchin hit a 2-run homer, a grand slam, and a 3-run homer, plus added an RBI double for a total of 10 runs batted in. Lynn had a 2-run homer, a pair of 3-run homers, and a 2-run triple, and he was the only guy in this group to get 5 hits.
- Not a single guy was intentionally walked. I guess it's a long-standing rule in baseball that the opposing team should not walk a guy attempting to hit his fourth homer of the game.
- After I wrote this, I noticed that McCutchen did it in his 51st game, and there are only 3 guys on this list to do it earlier in their careers. Wow.
August 4th, 2009 at 8:39 am
Not a Hall-of-Famer among them - yet. We'll see if McGwire gets in or if the steroids issue prevents his entry. Lynn has been in the debate of HoF worthiness. Jury's still out for the young guys, though neither Gomes nor Ross have shown that level of talent.
Only Lynn and McGwire were even legitimate All-Stars. Leppert was on the 1963 All-Star roster only because Washington had to have a representative. (Leppert was a .262 hitting catcher at the time; he finished the season - one of only 4 ML seasons in his career - batting .237 in 73 games.)
If you're looking for a stat to foreshadow greatness, I'd say early 3-HR games is not it...
August 4th, 2009 at 8:46 am
Steroids aside, I find the HOF debate on McGwire mind-boggling. Some people are absolutely sure he's a HOF whereas others (like me) find his stats very one-dimensional and limited and think he clearly is not a HOFer. I can't think of another player that is so non-marginal in the sense that everybody seems to think he's either IN or OUT clearly.
Anyway, I put a poll on my personal blog about this. Go here to vote:
http://tradedsets.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-mark-mcgwire-hall-of-famer.html
August 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
I only see one hall-of-Famer on the list, Mark McGwire but really isn't a Hall-Of-Famer because in the Mitchell report he was reported tested positive for steroids and I was not surprised he did test positive for steroids because in my opinion no MLB player can hit 70 home runs in one season. When Barry Bonds broke that record when he hit 73 home runs I knew that something was not right, but anyway hitting 3 home runs in one game is pretty amazing in the big leagues.
August 4th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Andy, I tried to post the following comment on your blog, but wordpress kept giving me the error: "You do not own that identity."
I voted 'Yes, Definitely'. That is not to say that he’s a top-echelon HoFer, but he’s definitely in. As steveisjewish [at Andy's blog] said, he was one of the most feared sluggers of his day, as his 12 All-Star selections attest to. He also won the Rookie of the Year award while setting a new rookie record for homers (with 49) in 1986, won a Gold Glove award (yes, he did), three Silver Slugger awards, and though he did not win an MVP award (in my opinion, he deserved the 1998 MVP over Sammy Sosa) he finished in the top 25 in MVP voting ten times (including 5 of his first 6 years – *before* his monster home run seasons) and in the top 10 five times. He was also considered an average to above-average defensive first baseman early in his career.
The comparison to Kingman is unfair. Compare their stats, McGwire to Kingman (league averages in parentheses): BA .263 (.262) to .236 (.262); OBP .394 (.332) to .302 (.329), SLG .588 (.409) to .478 (.389), OPS .982 (.741) to .780 (.718), OPS+ 162 to 115 (both 100, by definition), HR 583 to 442, TB 3639 to 3191, IBB 150 to 72. Even normalized for era offense, Big Mac’s stats are all above league average, and blow Kong’s out of the water.
While OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, normalized for average league offense) is not the perfect measure of offensive production, it is pretty good – better than most “traditional” measures. Only eight HoFers – Babe Ruth (207), Ted Williams (191), Lou Gehrig (179), Rogers Hornsby (175), Mickey Mantle (172), Dan Brouthers (170), Ty Cobb (167), and Jimmy Foxx (162) – have a career OPS+ as high as McGwire’s 162. There are also multiple examples of players who got in primarily for their slugging that cannot match McGwire’s OPS+ numbers, among them are Hank Greenberg (153), Ralph Kiner (149), Harmon Killebrew (143), and most recently Jim Rice (128). Note that of those mentioned, only Greenberg (22) played more seasons than Mac’s 16. Greenberg (13) and Kiner (10) played fewer seasons, and Rice equaled Mac’s season total.
So is Mark McGwire a well-rounded, multi-dimensional threat? No. Was he *so* good at what he did that he was one of the best players of his era and deserves to be in the Hall of Fame? Absolutely. Will he be shunned and ostracized from the Hall because of PED allegations? We’ll see…
Btw Scab [a replier to Andy's blog]: First, read the post - "considering ONLY his stats”, ignoring the PED issue. Secondly, Mac has not been confirmed as being on "the list", thus far there’s no firm evidence that he juiced, only hearsay and his refusal to talk about it at the Congressional inquiry.
August 4th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Update: got in and was able to post reply at Andy's blog. Apparently, you have to own a WordPress blog to post replies, not just have a WordPress account. (I created a blog to test this theory, though I'll probably never actually use it.)
August 4th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
I agree with Tomepp. In fact, I'm a bit perplexed that one of the stat-of-the-day bloggers can't distinguish him from Dave Kingman. OPS+ is indeed the easiest first-glance metric to check. Looking deeper, it wasn't all power. That .394 OBP is higher than Tony Gwynn's.
August 4th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
I can distinguish him from Dave Kingman. I wasn't comparing them--I simply stated a fact that was true of both guys, which it was.
August 4th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
And McGwire's OBP is not due to intentional walks. Even removing IBBs, Mac beats Gwynn in OBP .382 to .376. Surprisingly, Gwynn actually had a higher IBB ratio than Big Mac (Gwynn 1 IBB every 50.4 PA, McGwire 1 IBB every 51.1 PA). While Gwynn hit a ton, he was not really all that great at drawing walks. Gwynn drew 1 BB every 17.1 PA (after removing IBBs), while Mac drew 1 BB every 6.4 PAs.
August 4th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Sorry, Andy, but I have to disagree with you there, too. You said, "So was Dave Kingman [one of the most feared sluggers of his era]." I really doubt that most Major League pitchers feared Dave Kingman. Respected his power, yes; feared him at the plate, no. Pitchers knew that Kingman could be pitched around, and would chase bad pitches. They also knew that if they left one hanging out over the plate, Kong would turn it into a souvenir. Still, Kong was an out 70% of the time. However, with Big Mac at the plate, if you tried to throw them in the dust or over his numbers, Mac would patiently work the count and take the free pass to first. He, too, would turn hangers into souvenirs (though sometimes fans had to run to the parking lot to retrieve them), but he was much harder to pitch to outside the zone. In fact, Mac is much more similar to Barry Bonds (whose OBP is .412 if you remove his rediculous IBB totals) than to Kingman. Removing IBBs, Bonds' OPS is 1.019 (.412+.607), McGwire's is .970 (.382+.588), and Kingman's is .773 (.295+.478).
August 5th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Merv Connors hit 3 home runs on 17 September 1938. His entire career lasted only 52 games.