Bloops: Newsday Piece on Mitchel Lichtman
Posted by Neil Paine on August 20, 2009
Here's a short article from Newsday's Ken Davidoff on sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman -- or as many of you know him by, "MGL" -- and specifically his Ultimate Zone Rating defensive stat. Here's a tidbit from the piece: despite the Yankees' rave reviews, Mark Teixeira has actually been below-average at first base according to UZR. Hmm, come to think of it, this kind of gulf between perception and reality seems to happen to the Yankees a lot...
August 20th, 2009 at 11:15 am
"this kind of gulf between perception and reality seems to happen to the Yankees a lot"
Neil - I'll admit I don't know much about fielding stats,so you can tell me if I'm way off.
This season Mark Texiera, a player with a superb fielding reputation, joined Yankees and all of a sudden the much maligned Derek Jeter's UZR skyrockets. Meanwhile, Texira's UZR plummets.
Maybe UZR is not quiet "reality" just yet.
August 20th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
No, I definitely agree, that was more of a throwaway joke about the big discrepancy between Jeter's perceived defensive ability and his numbers (in essentially every metric) throughout his career, especially about 7-10 years ago.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Jeter appears to be getting to a lot more balls than he has in the past, and I'm not the only one who has observed this. I don't see how Teixeira would have anything to do with that.
August 21st, 2009 at 8:52 am
I suspect that Teixeira's numbers this year are more of a single season glitch than a trend - we'll see after a few more years. Perhaps playing for a new team (especially under the Yankees microscope) has made Mark nervous - or at least more conservative in the field. Like batting stats, fielding stats have year-to-year fluctuations, and this may be an abberation.
As to Jeter, he difinitely has gotten better. For years Yankee fans were looking at his fielding through rose-colored glasses. They equated his take-charge leadership in the field with good fielding rather than taking a cold hard look at the numbers. (Winning those four World Series didn't hurt, either, in terms of perception.)
August 21st, 2009 at 10:37 am
Well everyone who watches the Yankees believes Teixeira has been above-average in the field. I'm very aware perception doesn't = reality, but the wisdom of the crowds is useful. I think it's more likely UZR is missing something in this instance than that Tex really isn't playing that well. Will be interesting to see what Tango's fan scouting report (http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/index.html) finds this season. To evaluate defense, I still use a mix of my own observations, what I read or hear from others, and the stats. I think Tex has been good, most observers seem to believe he's been very good, and one stat finds he's been average. (Does anyone know what +/- or any other stats say at this point?) Mix it all together and I'm sure he's been above average.
Unfortunately, I don't see most players nearly enough for my own opinion to have any weight.
August 21st, 2009 at 12:12 pm
The difference between an average and an excellent fielder may be as little as one ball reached every week or two, which is not something people can pick up upon. I think most people's perceptions rely on more memorable events like good plays and errors, not a fielder's reaction time or positioning or footwork. "Perception" was that Jeter was an excellent shortstop because he had a flair for the great/memorable play, but the truth was that day-to-day he was not, which the numbers bore out. I think Tomepp is right that it's probably just a down/unlucky fielding year for Tex. We shouldn't devalue a stat because it doesn't jibe with our subjective observations, especially in something as fuzzy as fielding.
August 21st, 2009 at 1:51 pm
What you say is true, Eorns. And I'm not devaluing UZR because it doesn't jibe with my impression. Like I said, I consider everything. I just don't give UZR a lot _more_ weight than I give to what I see and the subjective reports of others, whether it's for Tex or anyone else. I think UZR is an informative data point, but it just isn't that accurate yet.