We were all happy to see Rick Ankiel make it back to the majors as an outfielder. He's made some noise with the bat, so let's check in on his season so far.

So far, he's appeared in 13 games, yielding 44 at-bats with 12 hits, 9 runs scored, 9 batted in, 2 doubles and 4 homers. He's got an alarming B/KK ratio of 4 BB and 17 K. He's batting .273/.327/.591.

For fun, I have scaled his 2007 season out to 650 plate appearances. There are at least two reasons why it's really stupid to do this (1. Because the sample size is so small and 2. Because he doesn't have an established major league hitting record) but I'm doing it anyway.

This scaling yields:

PA:  650
H:   159
2B:   27
3B:    0
HR:   53
R:   119
RBI: 119
BB:   53
K:   225

225 strikeouts? Ouch. Obviously his averages (BA .273, OBP .327, SLG .591) wouldn't change.

To me, the most striking thing about this "projected season" is having 50+ homers but only 53 walks.

Here are the 25 players since 1901 with at least 40 homers and at most 50 walks:

  Cnt Player             **BB** HR Year Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B RBI IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+-------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Dante Bichette       22   40 1995  31 COL NL 139 612 579 102 197 38  2 128   5  96   4   0   7  16  13  9  .340  .364  .620  .984 *79       
    2 Andre Dawson         32   49 1987  32 CHC NL 153 662 621  90 178 24  2 137   7 103   7   0   2  15  11  3  .287  .328  .568  .896 *9        
    3 Tony Armas           32   43 1984  30 BOS AL 157 679 639 107 171 29  5 123   9 156   1   0   7  13   1  3  .268  .300  .531  .831 *8D/9     
    4 Javy Lopez           33   43 2003  32 ATL NL 129 495 457  89 150 29  3 109   5  90   4   0   1  10   0  1  .328  .378  .687 1.065 *2/D      
    5 Juan Gonzalez        33   42 1997  27 TEX AL 133 579 533  87 158 24  3 131   7 107   3   0  10  12   0  0  .296  .335  .589  .924 *D9       
    6 Matt Williams        33   43 1994  28 SFG NL 112 483 445  74 119 16  3  96   7  87   2   0   3  11   1  0  .267  .319  .607  .926 *5        
    7 Sammy Sosa           34   40 1996  27 CHC NL 124 541 498  84 136 21  2 100   6 134   5   0   4  14  18  5  .273  .323  .564  .887 *9        
    8 Tony Batista         35   41 2000  26 TOR AL 154 664 620  96 163 32  2 114   1 121   6   0   3  15   5  4  .263  .307  .519  .826 *5        
    9 Vinny Castilla       35   40 1996  28 COL NL 160 673 629  97 191 34  0 113   7  88   5   0   4  20   7  2  .304  .343  .548  .891 *5        
   10 Juan Gonzalez        35   43 1992  22 TEX AL 155 632 584  77 152 24  2 109   1 143   5   0   8  16   0  1  .260  .304  .529  .833 *87/D9    
   11 Hal Trosky           36   42 1936  23 CLE AL 151 671 629 124 216 45  9 162   0  58   3   3   0   0   6  5  .343  .382  .644 1.026 *3/4      
   12 Juan Gonzalez        37   46 1993  23 TEX AL 140 587 536 105 166 33  1 118   7  99  13   0   1  12   4  1  .310  .368  .632 1.000 *7D       
   13 George Bell          39   47 1987  27 TOR AL 156 665 610 111 188 32  4 134   9  75   7   0   9  17   5  1  .308  .352  .605  .957 *7/D45    
   14 Orlando Cepeda       39   46 1961  23 SFG NL 152 636 585 105 182 28  4 142  11  91   9   0   3  21  12  8  .311  .362  .609  .971 *379      
   15 Vinny Castilla       40   46 1998  30 COL NL 162 697 645 108 206 28  4 144   7  89   6   0   6  24   5  9  .319  .362  .589  .951 *5/6      
   16 Andres Galarraga     40   47 1996  35 COL NL 159 691 626 119 190 39  3 150   3 157  17   0   8   6  18  8  .304  .357  .601  .958 *3/5      
   17 Vinny Castilla       44   40 1997  29 COL NL 159 668 612  94 186 25  2 113   9 108   8   0   4  17   2  4  .304  .356  .547  .903 *5        
   18 Dick Stuart          44   42 1963  30 BOS AL 157 659 612  81 160 25  4 118   2 144   1   1   1  24   0  0  .261  .312  .521  .833 *3        
   19 Alex Rodriguez       45   42 1998  22 SEA AL 161 748 686 123 213 35  5 124   0 121  10   3   4  12  46 13  .310  .360  .560  .920 *6/D      
   20 Juan Gonzalez        45   47 1996  26 TEX AL 134 592 541  89 170 33  2 144  12  82   3   0   3  10   2  0  .314  .368  .643 1.011 *9D       
   21 Dave Kingman         45   48 1979  30 CHC NL 145 589 532  97 153 19  5 115   7 131   4   0   8   7   4  2  .288  .343  .613  .956 *7        
   22 Ernie Banks          45   44 1955  24 CHC NL 154 646 596  98 176 29  9 117   6  72   2   0   3  16   9  3  .295  .345  .596  .941 *6        
   23 Juan Gonzalez        46   45 1998  28 TEX AL 154 669 606 110 193 50  2 157   9 126   6   0  11  20   2  1  .318  .366  .630  .996 *9D       
   24 Ryne Sandberg        50   40 1990  30 CHC NL 155 675 615 116 188 30  3 100   8  84   1   0   9   8  25  7  .306  .354  .559  .913 *4        
   25 Willie McCovey       50   44 1963  25 SFG NL 152 627 564 103 158 19  5 102   5 119  11   1   1  10   1  1  .280  .350  .566  .916 *73/9     

Actually, #3 on that list by Tony Armas (senior) reminds me a lot of Ankiel's projected season. A ton of strikeouts (156 for Armas) and all of the averages are close. The biggest difference is that Armas his just 32 homers. However, 32 is a more reasonable expectation for Ankiel over a full season than 53 (you don't have to be a SOTD guest blogger to know that...)

Notice that all of those 25 seasons above feature fewer than 50 homers. Let's make a new list, this time for minimum 50 homers, maximum 100 walks:

  Cnt Player             **BB** HR Year Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B RBI IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+-------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 George Foster        61   52 1977  28 CIN NL 158 689 615 124 197 31  2 149  10 107   5   0   8  17   6  4  .320  .382  .631 1.013 *78       
    2 Andruw Jones         64   51 2005  28 ATL NL 160 672 586  95 154 24  3 128  13 112  15   0   7  19   5  3  .263  .347  .575  .922 *8        
    3 Sammy Sosa           73   66 1998  29 CHC NL 159 722 643 134 198 20  0 158  14 171   1   0   5  20  18  9  .308  .377  .647 1.024 *9/8      
    4 Albert Belle         73   50 1995  28 CLE AL 143 629 546 121 173 52  1 126   5  80   6   0   4  24   5  2  .317  .401  .690 1.091 *7/D      
    5 Johnny Mize          74   51 1947  34 NYG NL 154 664 586 137 177 26  2 138   0  42   4   0   0   6   2  0  .302  .384  .614  .998 *3        
    6 Alex Rodriguez       75   52 2001  25 TEX AL 162 732 632 133 201 34  1 135   6 131  16   0   9  17  18  3  .318  .399  .622 1.021 *6/D      
    7 Ken Griffey          76   56 1998  28 SEA AL 161 720 633 120 180 33  3 146  11 121   7   0   4  14  20  5  .284  .365  .611  .976 *8/D379   
    8 Ken Griffey          76   56 1997  27 SEA AL 157 704 608 125 185 34  3 147  23 121   8   0  12  12  15  4  .304  .382  .646 1.028 *8/D7     
    9 Brady Anderson       76   50 1996  32 BAL AL 149 687 579 117 172 37  5 110   1 106  22   6   4  11  21  8  .297  .396  .637 1.033 *8/D      
   10 Willie Mays          76   52 1965  34 SFG NL 157 638 558 118 177 21  3 112  16  71   0   2   2  11   9  4  .317  .398  .645 1.043 *8/97     
   11 Sammy Sosa           78   63 1999  30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24  2 141   8 171   3   0   6  17   7  8  .288  .367  .635 1.002 *98       
   12 Greg Vaughn          79   50 1998  32 SDP NL 158 661 573 112 156 28  4 119   6 121   5   0   4   7  11  4  .272  .363  .597  .960 *7/D      
   13 Willie Mays          79   51 1955  24 NYG NL 152 670 580 123 185 18 13 127  13  60   4   0   7  12  24  4  .319  .400  .659 1.059 *8        
   14 Alex Rodriguez       87   57 2002  26 TEX AL 162 725 624 125 187 27  2 142  12 122  10   0   4  14   9  4  .300  .392  .623 1.015 *6        
   15 Cecil Fielder        90   51 1990  26 DET AL 159 673 573 104 159 25  1 132  11 182   5   0   5  15   0  1  .277  .377  .592  .969 *3D       
   16 Sammy Sosa           91   50 2000  31 CHC NL 156 705 604 106 193 38  1 138  19 168   2   0   8  12   7  4  .320  .406  .634 1.040 *9/8      
   17 Roger Maris          94   61 1961  26 NYY AL 161 698 590 132 159 16  4 142   0  67   7   0   7  16   0  0  .269  .372  .620  .992 *98       
   18 Ralph Kiner          98   51 1947  24 PIT NL 152 666 565 118 177 23  4 127   0  81   2   1   0  12   1  0  .313  .417  .639 1.056 *7        
   19 Luis Gonzalez       100   57 2001  33 ARI NL 162 728 609 128 198 36  7 142  24  83  14   0   5  14   1  1  .325  .429  .688 1.117 *7        

In terms of the HR/BB ratio, nobody has ever had a season like that projected Ankiel season. It's quite unlikely that such a ratio would continue. If Ankiel continues to hit HRs at a pace for 50+ (doubtful) then he would get walked more.

Isn't it kind of statistically interesting that lots of guys have hit 40-49 homers and had fewer walks than homers, but nobody has ever hit 50+ homers and had fewer walks than homers?

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 28th, 2007 at 6:29 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.