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Unexpected Winners

Posted by Raphy on December 14, 2009

In 2009 Bradon Looper went 14-7 despite posting an ERA+ of only 77. Looper's success, which can be attributed to a combination of extreme inconsistancy, run support and luck, was certainly unusual, but not unprecedented.

Yesterday we took a look at a group of pitchers who won a lot despite posting a less than stellar ERA+ . After I posted the list I began to wonder if we could do better. The list from yesterday lumps all the sub 100 ERA+ seasons together and doesn't differentiate between them. Jim Coates's 13-3 season is lumped together with Hooks Wiltse's 13-3 season, despite Wiltses's 96-83 advantage in ERA+. Therefore, I thought it might be interesting to look at the players with the best ratio of WL%:ERA+. I realize that there is a certain logical flaw in such a comparison, but I think the list is enlightening none-the -less. (To be included all pitchers must have pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title.)

Rk Player Year W L W-L% ERA+ Ratio Tm Lg G GS IP H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Braden Looper 2009 14 7 .667 77 .00866 MIL NL 34 34 194.2 226 123 113 64 100 5.22
2 Storm Davis 1989 19 7 .731 85 .00860 OAK AL 31 31 169.1 187 91 82 68 91 4.36
3 Dick Ruthven 1981 12 7 .632 70 .00903 PHI NL 23 22 146.2 162 94 84 54 80 5.15
4 Dave Roberts 1972 12 7 .632 75 .00843 HOU NL 35 28 192.0 227 100 96 57 111 4.50
5 Chuck Dobson 1971 15 5 .750 88 .00852 OAK AL 30 30 189.0 185 84 80 71 100 3.81
6 Joe Bowman 1944 12 8 .600 71 .00845 BOS AL 26 24 168.1 175 95 90 64 53 4.81
7 Red Causey 1919 13 8 .619 70 .00884 TOT NL 29 26 174.0 180 90 78 58 39 4.03
8 Byron Houck 1913 14 6 .700 66 .01061 PHA AL 41 19 176.0 147 89 81 122 71 4.14
9 Joe Bush 1913 15 6 .714 72 .00992 PHA AL 39 16 200.1 199 97 85 66 81 3.82
10 Mike Lynch 1905 17 8 .680 79 .00861 PIT NL 33 22 206.1 191 102 87 107 106 3.79
11 Hooks Wiltse 1904 13 3 .813 96 .00847 NYG NL 24 16 164.2 150 66 52 61 105 2.84
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

I have added the ratios to the original list, which is sorted by year. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.

The top two pitchers on the list were teammates for the World Champion 1913 A's. The best ratio since 1901 belongs to Byron Houck who went 14-6, despite posting an ERA+ of 66. Houck's teammate Joe Bush who went 15-6 with an ERA+ of 72 is second all-time. Both pitchers certainly benefited from their team's tremendous offense, which averaged 5.19 R/G, more than a full run more than any other team in the league.

Looper is 5th all-time, so he is obviously the leader in 2009.

Rk W L W-L% ERA+ Ratio Age Tm Lg G GS SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Joe Saunders 16 7 .696 98 .00710 28 LAA AL 31 31 0 186.0 202 102 95 64 101 4.60
2 Andy Pettitte 14 8 .636 103 .00617 37 NYY AL 32 32 0 194.2 193 101 90 76 148 4.16
3 Carl Pavano 14 12 .538 84 .00640 33 TOT AL 33 33 0 199.1 235 119 113 39 147 5.10
4 Ricky Nolasco 13 9 .591 84 .00704 26 FLA NL 31 31 0 185.0 188 111 104 44 195 5.06
5 Jamie Moyer 12 10 .545 86 .00634 46 PHI NL 30 25 0 162.0 177 91 89 43 94 4.94
6 Derek Lowe 15 10 .600 88 .00682 36 ATL NL 34 34 0 194.2 232 109 101 63 111 4.67
7 Braden Looper 14 7 .667 77 .00866 34 MIL NL 34 34 0 194.2 226 123 113 64 100 5.22
8 Jorge de la Rosa 16 9 .640 104 .00615 28 COL NL 33 32 0 185.0 172 95 90 83 193 4.38
9 Josh Beckett 17 6 .739 122 .00606 29 BOS AL 32 32 0 212.1 198 99 91 55 199 3.86
10 Scott Baker 15 9 .625 100 .00625 27 MIN AL 33 33 0 200.0 190 99 97 48 162 4.37
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.

The career leader in this category (min. 100 decisions) is Ferdie Schupp, who went 61-39 in his career despite an ERA+ of  88.

Rk Player W L W-L% ERA+ Ratio To From G GS IP H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Bob Walk 105 81 .565 91 .00621 1980 1993 350 259 1666.0 1671 829 746 606 848 4.03
2 Curt Young 69 53 .566 90 .00629 1983 1993 251 162 1107.0 1133 581 530 366 536 4.31
3 Pedro Borbon 69 39 .639 101 .00633 1969 1980 593 4 1026.2 1098 436 401 251 409 3.52
4 Tony Cloninger 113 97 .538 88 .00611 1961 1972 352 247 1767.2 1643 898 799 798 1120 4.07
5 Vic Raschi 132 66 .667 105 .00635 1946 1955 269 255 1819.0 1666 828 752 727 944 3.72
6 Roy Mahaffey 67 49 .578 90 .00642 1926 1936 224 128 1056.0 1181 673 588 452 365 5.01
7 Ferdie Schupp 61 39 .610 88 .00693 1913 1922 216 120 1054.0 938 470 389 464 553 3.32
8 Bernie Boland 68 53 .562 90 .00624 1915 1921 209 119 1062.0 925 460 383 432 364 3.25
9 Lefty Williams 82 48 .631 99 .00637 1913 1920 189 152 1186.0 1121 497 413 347 515 3.13
10 Jack Harper* 79 59 .572 92 .00622 1901 1906 152 142 1176.2 1150 628 460 424 452 3.52
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

I have added the ratios to the original list, which is sorted by year. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.

* Harper's number are from 1901 and later. His actual career numbers are .556 WL%, 91 ERA+ and .00611 ratio.

On the flip side of "Unexpected Winners" are "Unexpected Losers". You can read more about them here.

Related posts:

    Unexpected Losers
    Worst K/BB ratios for 20-game winners
    Unexpected At-Bats
    Losing Winners
    Triple Crown winners, plus is this Albert Pujols’ worst season?

This entry was posted on Monday, December 14th, 2009 at 10:50 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

4 Responses to “Unexpected Winners”

  1. DoubleDiamond Says:
    December 14th, 2009 at 11:38 am

    A reminder requested, please - Is a high ERA+ considered to be good or bad? Just a simple one word, "good" or "bad", will do. Please do not, instead, insert a link to an explanation of ERA+ for me (and anyone else who's wondering about this) to figure it out for myself. Thanks.

  2. Raphy Says:
    December 14th, 2009 at 11:55 am

    Good

  3. Andy Says:
    December 15th, 2009 at 12:56 pm

    Raphy how did you include that custom field in the table?

  4. Raphy Says:
    December 15th, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    After you post a table into WordPress and switch to visual mode, you can manually edit the entries of each cell. Just make sure you have an extra column that you're willing to type over.

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