Ryan Braun
Posted by Andy on November 13, 2007
Can you believe that this guy won rookie of the year? No? Maybe because it was this guy. Braun's got some great numbers in the minors and next year he'll be just 24. It'll be interesting to see what he does over the next 3-4 years. Next Albert Pujols or next Kevin Maas?
November 13th, 2007 at 9:37 am
I can't believe anyone named Ryan Braun won it - I thought it should have went to Troy Tulowitzki.
November 13th, 2007 at 10:12 am
Really? Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 108, while Braun had an OPS+ of 153. That's a HUUUGE difference. And consider this: Tulowitzki created 103 runs in 155 games, whereas Braun created 102 runs in 113 games.
Don't get me wrong--Tulowitzki had a great rookie season, especially for being just 22. But to me Braun is the clear deserving winner.
By the way, I was wrong about Braun's age...he'll be 24 next year. (I corrected it in the post above.)
November 13th, 2007 at 11:07 am
This is a tough one. I live in the Denver area, so I'm biased toward Tulo. Tulowitzki's defense is amazing, while Braun's is amazing in its own special way 🙂
Still, after seeing the offensive numbers, I can't say this is a travesty. That was my first reaction.
November 13th, 2007 at 11:17 am
No, I'm not in disbelief at all, I was just referring to your original line in the first post. It was a close close race in my mind. Braun's awesome. Just not so much with the glove.
It's like how last year I voted Carlos Beltran for MVP over the stone-gloved Ryan Howard despite Howard's monster numbers. I love offense but I'm a sucker for good defense, too.
November 13th, 2007 at 11:38 am
Obviously defense is an important part of the game, but when it's measured on a standardized scale in terms of actual contributions to scoring runs and winning games, it's usually a vanishingly small component as compared to the offensive value of MVP-caliber seasons.
November 13th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Braun walked 6% of PA and struck out 23% of PA
Pujols as rookie walked 10% of PA and struck out 14% of PA
Pujols at same age (23) walked 12% of PA and struck out 10% of PA
Braun might end up a great player, but Pujols he ain't.
November 13th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
I knew Braun deserved it all along, but I just figured that the voters would mess it up again - voting on what they feel about the postseason, and sensationalizing a guys season because "he has a good glove." Who cares about defense...does Scott Hatteberg ring any bells?
November 13th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
maybe Braun is the next Adam Dunn...
Has anybody read the wikipedia article on Ryan Braun? It must be written by his fan club. If you read all the way down the page about his defense, the article mostly blames Fielder and Weeks (which is insanely ridiculous)
November 13th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Andy,
I'd be really interested in seeing the runs saved by Tulo and allowed by Braun.
November 13th, 2007 at 3:20 pm
I don't have access to the data but I'd be shocked if their defense really differs by more than 10-20 runs in a season. This definitely makes up for some of the difference on the offensive side, but not all. Keep in mind that historically, fans tend to overvalue the true difference on runs allowed from defensive contributions.
November 13th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Andy,
To answer my own question - Nate Silver said in during the last week of the season that Tulo saved 21 runs and Braun allowed an extra 17.`However, he said he's rather have Braun in the long term and that he doesn't expect either to get much better. I don't know what that's based on.
November 13th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
Sorry about the messed up link: it's http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=357
November 13th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
TCCL - The thing about Tulo is that he doesn't just "have a good glove". He had one of the best defensive seasons in recent history.
I don't disagree with you on some level. You can say "Who cares about defense?" when evaluating a guy who hits like Braun (although I do agree with FCAlive re: walks) or Ryan Howard. But when comparing two players - one who plays shortstop really really well, and another who can barely field at all at 3B, a less difficult position - it's an important thing to consider.
I think their fielding runs differed by close to 50, which is significant in my book.
November 13th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
According to the above data, the difference is 38 runs, which is significant. Ironically, if you look at their offensive runs created (data in my comment at the top), over 162 games Braun would have produced 39 runs more than Tulo, so with the defense factored in they had virtually identical seasons in terms of run production. Voting for ROY for this season is up for debate. However, vonhayes' comment above is very telling--Tulo had an exceptional year as a fielder, and in fact so did Braun. It's quite likely that both of their fielding run scores will move closer to zero next season, providing a smaller differential to offset their offensive differences.
November 13th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
lol! That sponsor of Ryan Zachary Braun should try to get their money back. 🙂
November 14th, 2007 at 7:21 am
Man, that's ironic...
November 14th, 2007 at 7:48 am
LOL Oscar, actually Ryan Z. Braun has 7767 page views (PV). Compare that to other KC Pitchers.
Leo Nunex has 4459 with nearly triple the IP and an earlier debut. Billy Buckner has only 767 PV in 2/3 of the IP. Luke Hochevar only has 767 PV in 1/3 the IP. Even Joel Peralta has only 4843 PV despite a season woth the Angels and two in KC. Peralta has 4 times the IP and 3 times the BFP than Ryan Z Braun.
I wonder how many of RZB's PVs came yesterday after Andy posted the link on the blog?
November 14th, 2007 at 7:52 am
Thousands upon thousands, I'm sure. Perhaps I'll link to another one of those obscure players.