Sid Fernandez
Posted by Andy on December 21, 2007
On another post, kingturtle remarked that Sid Fernandez was incredibly effective in his career until the 5th of 6th inning of starts. I remember hearing that something about Fernandez' windup or delivery made it tough for batters to pick up the ball, and that they usually needed a couple of at-bats in a game against Fernandez to get accustomed to it.
An easy way to look at that is to check out Fernandez' pitching splits, specifically his average against based on the number of times he has faced a guy in a game. For his career, guys facing him for the first time in a game hit .186 / .264 / .308 against him, whereas the batting average climbed to .204 in the second PA, and .246 in the 3rd or greater PA.
To me, these numbers back up kingturtle exactly. 5th or 6th inning would usually mean 2 PAs by most players, and Fernandez allowed a combined .194 batting average over the first 2 PAs by each player.
If you break it out by years, from 1985 to 1993, batters were collectively under .200 every single year in their first PA against Fernandez. Wow!
That being said, one important factor is that Fernandez' career batting average against is just .209 and he is third all-time in fewest hits allowed per 9 innings.
But compare him to pitchers most statistically similar:
Jose Rijo allowed a .243 average in his career, broken out as .239 in the first PA, .254 in the second PA, and .236 in the third+ PA. Certainly quite a different breakdown from Fernandez.
Bob Ojeda allowed a .257 average in his career. It was .250 in the first PA, .253 in the second PA, and .272 in the third+ PA. This is a similar trend to Fernandez, but the numbers split across PA# are all closer to the average for Ojeda.
Gary Peters allowed a .243 average in his career. It was .233 in PA #1, .238 in PA #2, and .258 in PA #3+. This is somewhat closer to Fernandez' model.
I remember that Fernandez was a notorious fly-ball pitcher and he did allow more homers on average. But I guess he allowed many fewer singles!
December 21st, 2007 at 9:36 am
Andy. This is exactly why I love this blog. All the little baseball small-talk that has gone on through my head over the past 20 years gets to be discussed! Thanks for your research on this. It is lots of fun to examine. I can't tell you how many times I saw him pitch masterfully and then lose it.
Let's look at splits of particular years:
*1986: 1st PA .187 BA & .543 OPS, 2nd PA .220 & .613, 3rd PA: .247 & .742
*1987: .197 & .599, .219 & .650, .267 & .806!!
*1988: .199 & .623, .176 & .555, .196 & .534!!
December 21st, 2007 at 9:37 am
Andy. This is exactly why I love this blog. All the little baseball small-talk that has gone on through my head over the past 20 years gets to be discussed! Thanks for your research on this. It is lots of fun to examine. I can't tell you how many times I saw him pitch masterfully and then lose it.
Let's look at splits of particular years:
*1986: 1st PA .187 BA & .543 OPS, 2nd PA .220 & .613, 3rd PA: .247 & .742
*1987: .197 & .599, .219 & .650, .267 & .806!!
*1988: .199 & .623, .176 & .555, .196 & .534!!
(cut off from above)
In 1988, it looks like he finally put it all together, but he still finished 12-10 with an ERA+ of 107.
*1989: .163 & .521!!, .183 & .505!!, .256 & .812!!!! (Zoinks!)
El Sid's lifetime splits are telling too when you look at each inning. 1st inning: BA of .200, 2nd: .193, 3rd: .182, 4th: .240!, 5th: .196.
Also, in 300 games started, he only saw the 7th inning 154 times. He only pitched 7 games of relief in his career, so that 154 could be anywhere between 147 and 154. Basically, half of his starts never saw the 7th inning.
Anyway, thank you Andy!
December 21st, 2007 at 10:43 am
I wonder if this has anything to do with him being such a fatty. Do bad Rich Garces wasn't a starter, so we could check his splits.
December 21st, 2007 at 11:09 am
Note that Mario Soto ("Best Starting Pitcher, 1982-1985") is 20th alltime on the list you cited in fewest hits allowed/9 innings.
FCAlive suggests that maybe Sid wasn't in good enough shape to maintain a normal moderate decline in efficiency over the course of a game. In addition to hitters "catching on," conditioning could be a factor.
December 21st, 2007 at 11:17 am
I cannot help but feel that you are mocking me with that "Best Starting Pitcher" bit in quotes...
🙂
December 21st, 2007 at 11:24 am
Sid's problem definitely was that he wasn't able to fool hitters twice. That was his flaw. Schilling can fool hitters all night. That's the difference.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:15 pm
I suspect that Schilling is actually a much better pitcher than Fernandez. I am guessing that Fernandez relied on some very basic deception in his delivery/grip/motion, and that because he pitched in an era where only basic video tape was available (as opposed to today, where all kinds of stuff such as pitch angle, release velocity, and movement are all measured by high-resolution computer analysis) he could get by on that. Schilling could never get by on stuff like that.
It's also true that regardless of whether he is/was overweight, Schilling has always had amazing stamina for pitching deep into games.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Two things:
- All pitchers do worse as they go through the game. The better question is how did Sid do vs. an average pattern?
- The biggest thing to remember about Sid the Kid is that he had a hellacious home/road split -- perhaps the largest of any pitcher in recent memory. He just loved pitching at Shea.
Is that something that can be researched?
December 21st, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Lifetime, it's true that pitchers do worse through games, although I have seen years where some pitchers do better innings 7-9 than 1-6 (but nobody, to my knowledge, has kept that up for a career.)
As for home/road splits, you're certainly right about El Sid. He was 67-40 with a 2.73 ERA at home in his career, and 47-56 with a 4.05 ERA on the road. And that includes his time with the Orioles, Phillies, and Astros. Lifetime at Shea, he was 58-31, 2.52 ERA. Geez.
As for researching general home/road splits, I do not believe that the PI is set up for that yet although of course this is something Sean could do manually if he wished.
By the way, if any readers out there do not recognize the author of comment #8, then you need to be reading The Hardball Times. We are honored to have Dave commenting here.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Well, that was embarrassing. 🙂
December 21st, 2007 at 4:21 pm
I'm sorry! I certainly didn't meant to embarrass you. Rather, I greatly respect the work you guys do, and appreciate that you take the time to stop over here.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:01 pm
"half of his starts never saw the 7th inning."
How often do starters of El Sid's caliber reach the 7th these days? I bet it might be about half, or less. In the '80s starters did tend to go a little longer.
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"Schilling can fool hitters all night."
I don't think much of his success is due to fooling batters. It's mainly due to throwing a very hard fastball right where he wants. He throws more strikes than any pitcher. Though it is true batters get fooled by the splitter, that's all set up by the fastball.
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"Lifetime, it’s true that pitchers do worse through games, although I have seen years where some pitchers do better innings 7-9 than 1-6 (but nobody, to my knowledge, has kept that up for a career.)"
I'd assume that when pitchers have seasons when they perform better at the end of games, it's usually because of a) small samples and b) selective samples. Pitchers (especially these days) only go that far if they're "on" that day. I wouldn't be surprised if some elite pitchers over their careers have worse Opp BA for the 2nd and 3rd AB, but then appear to improve again for the 4th AB. If they give up a hit they'll be pulled there, but if they're mowing people down they get to stay in.
December 23rd, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Can anyone tell me how to find flyball/groundball ratios for batters and pitchers and also pull/opposite field percentages? Can't seem to find these breakdowns on baseball-reference.com and need them for LaRussa baseball game...please help!! [email protected]