Intentionally walking the leadoff hitter
Posted by Andy on April 5, 2010
Hmm. The Nationals just intentionally walked Jimmy Rollins to load the bases, and then #2 hitter Placido Polanco hit a grand slam. Even before Polanco came to the plate, I thought it was a strange call. The #2 hitter is usually pretty darn good, and that's a strange strategy to put a fast runner on, fill the bases, get to a good hitter, and bring the #3 and #4 hitters one batter closer to coming up.
I did a quick search and here are the 35 times in 2009 when a #1 hitter was intentionally walked with runners on second and third.
| Yr# | Gm# | Date | Batter | Tm | Opp | Pitcher | Score | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | Play Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2009-04-13 | Alfonso Soriano | CHC | COL | Glendon Rusch | ahead 3-0 | b 5 | -23 | 2 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 2 | 1 | 2009-04-15 | Jose Reyes | NYM | SDP | Edward Mujica | ahead 3-1 | b 7 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 3 | 1 | 2009-04-17 | Coco Crisp | KCR | @TEX | Willie Eyre | ahead 4-0 | t 6 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 4 | 1 | 2009-04-22 | Felipe Lopez | ARI | COL | Jorge de la Rosa | ahead 1-0 | b 7 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 5 | 1 | 2009-04-24 | Nyjer Morgan | PIT | @SDP | Cla Meredith | tied 3-3 | t 6 | -23 | 2 | 5 (3-1) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 6 | 1 | 2009-05-03 | Ichiro Suzuki | SEA | OAK | Dana Eveland | tied 7-7 | b15 | -23 | 0 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 7 | 1 | 2009-05-08 | Fred Lewis | SFG | @LAD | Chad Billingsley | tied 1-1 | t 7 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 8 | 1 | 2009-05-08 | Alfonso Soriano | CHC | @MIL | Carlos Villanuev | ahead 2-1 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 9 | 1 | 2009-05-16 | Brian Giles | SDP | CIN | Jared Burton | tied 5-5 | b10 | -23 | 2 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 10 | 1 | 2009-05-17 | Juan Pierre | LAD | @FLA | Burke Badenhop | ahead 6-0 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 11 | 1 | 2009-05-18 | Juan Pierre | LAD | NYM | Brian Stokes | tied 2-2 | b11 | -23 | 0 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 12 | 1 | 2009-06-01 | Nyjer Morgan | PIT | NYM | J.J. Putz | ahead 6-5 | b 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 13 | 1 | 2009-06-13 | Andrew McCutchen | PIT | DET | Nate Robertson | ahead 4-2 | b 4 | -23 | 1 | 5 (3-1) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 14 | 1 | 2009-06-21 | Dexter Fowler | COL | PIT | Jeff Karstens | ahead 5-4 | b 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 15 | 1 | 2009-06-27 | Seth Smith | COL | @OAK | Edgar Gonzalez | ahead 7-2 | t 6 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 16 | 1 | 2009-06-30 | Ichiro Suzuki | SEA | @NYY | Brian Bruney | down 4-5 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 17 | 1 | 2009-07-26 | Nate McLouth | ATL | @MIL | Mike Burns | ahead 6-2 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 18 | 1 | 2009-07-30 | Felipe Lopez | MIL | WSN | Sean Burnett | ahead 4-3 | b 7 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 19 | 1 | 2009-08-06 | Stephen Drew | ARI | @PIT | Steven Jackson | tied 6-6 | t12 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 20 | 1 | 2009-08-11 | Everth Cabrera | SDP | @MIL | Braden Looper | ahead 4-2 | t 6 | -23 | 0 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 21 | 1 | 2009-08-18 | Denard Span | MIN | @TEX | Jason Jennings | tied 5-5 | t 6 | -23 | 2 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 22 | 1 | 2009-08-27 | Angel Pagan | NYM | @FLA | Cristhian Martin | ahead 4-1 | t 5 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 23 | 1 | 2009-08-30 | Derek Jeter | NYY | CHW | Randy Williams | ahead 4-2 | b 7 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 24 | 1 | 2009-09-03 | Matt Diaz | ATL | @FLA | Ricky Nolasco | tied 1-1 | t 5 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 25 | 1 | 2009-09-03 | Ichiro Suzuki | SEA | @OAK | Jeff Gray | ahead 6-4 | t 9 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 26 | 1 | 2009-09-12 | Brian Roberts | BAL | @NYY | Josh Towers | ahead 6-1 | t 9 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 27 | 1 | 2009-09-12 | Skip Schumaker | STL | ATL | Peter Moylan | down 4-5 | b 6 | -23 | 2 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 28 | 1 | 2009-09-12 | Ichiro Suzuki | SEA | @TEX | Willie Eyre | ahead 7-3 | t 7 | -23 | 2 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 29 | 1 | 2009-09-20 | Curtis Granderson | DET | @MIN | Jon Rauch | ahead 5-2 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 30 | 1 | 2009-09-20 | Ichiro Suzuki | SEA | NYY | Joba Chamberlain | ahead 2-0 | b 2 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 31 | 1 | 2009-09-21 | Eugenio Velez | SFG | @ARI | Esmerling Vasque | tied 4-4 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 32 | 1 | 2009-09-25 | Angel Pagan | NYM | @FLA | Leo Nunez | ahead 6-5 | t 9 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 33 | 1 | 2009-10-03 | Dustin Pedroia | BOS | CLE | Aaron Laffey | down 3-4 | b 2 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 34 | 1 | 2009-10-03 | Scott Podsednik | CHW | @DET | Brandon Lyon | ahead 4-0 | t 8 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
| 35 | 1 | 2009-10-03 | Rafael Furcal | LAD | COL | Franklin Morales | ahead 2-0 | b 7 | -23 | 1 | 4 (3-0) | 0 | Intentional Walk |
I looked through most of these games, and sometimes the move paid off and sometimes it didn't. It still strikes me as odd.
April 5th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Makes sense to me. A casual perusal of these box scores indicates to me that this was mostly done in cases where the no. 2 hitter was a singles hitter with decent OBP and low SB numbers. So a guy who'll put the ball in play, probably won't go yard on you, and isn't a speed demon, a decent DP candidate.
Also Ichiro accounted for one-seventh of this list. In a close game with a base open, I'd rather get beaten by whoever's hitting second for Seattle than let Ichiro do it.
April 5th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Depends on whether my pitcher can be counted on not to walk the #2 hitter or to fall behind in the count and give him a fat one. If either of those bad outcomes is a likelihood, I'd rather pitch tough to Ichiro, since I have a roughly 60% chance of getting him out.
April 5th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
Remember that numbers change a lot when the bases are loaded. A number 2 hitter is a number 2 hitter because he hits well with men on, and there is no easier time to hit than when the bases are loaded.
Still, Ichiro is so good that I doubt you have a 60% chance off getting him out when he bats with runners on second and third. I can't look it up at the moment but his OBP is probably around .500 in those situations, which might he better than the OBP of the #2 guy with the bases loaded.
April 5th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
His OBP is over .500 in those situations, but that's mostly because of all the IBB. Actually, he has _not_ hit that well with runners on 2nd and 3rd, though of course it's such a small # of PA (138) it doesn't mean much.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
Hmm.
April 5th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
Hmm?
April 5th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
Sorry Andy. I'm used to being able to edit my posts 🙂
I tried posting a table but I think it got caught somewhere (this happens to me sometimes over at PFR, too; I think posts with code in them tend to get trapped, but I'm not sure where; usually at PFR what I'll do is a placeholder post like "hmm" and then edit the post and put in the coded text.")
Anyway, I noted that 9 times last year, in the same situation as above, the #9 hitter was intentionally walked; only five of those times came when the #9 guy was a PH.
April 5th, 2010 at 8:31 pm
True Chad, although none of the 9 guys were pitchers either. Looks like they were all players who got into the 9-hole by coming as part of a double-switch.
For those interested, here are the IBB with runners on 2nd and 3rd, broken down by batting order position, for 2009:
OrderPos
4th 81
8th 75
3rd 65
7th 52
6th 46
5th 43
1st 35
2nd 12
9th 9
April 6th, 2010 at 11:28 am
this is simple they loaded the basees to put the double play in order, and polanco is a good dp candidate. its not a matter of who is a better hitter, its strategy. it didn't pay off, but it was the right call
April 6th, 2010 at 11:30 am
I don't know that I would ever intentionally walk a guy who is consistently among the league leaders in getting himself out, though.
April 6th, 2010 at 11:55 am
True, I don't think enough people are aware of Rollins's greatest achievement. He has already led the league in outs four times, and at only 31 years old, he is likely to do it at least once more, becoming the only player to lead the league in outs five (or more) times in a career. Congratulations, J-Roll!
April 7th, 2010 at 8:58 am
[...] couple of days ago I posted about the Nationals' decision to walk Jimmy Rollins to get to Placido Polanco while loading the bases in the process. The comments are quiet mixed in [...]