Under the radar: Pitchers with a low ERA but lots of losses this year
Posted by Andy on July 2, 2010
I guess this happens every year, but there are some serious hard-luck pitcher so far in 2010.
Here are the ERA leaders among pitchers with at least 7 losses already:
| Rk | Player | W | L | Year | Age | Tm | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roy Halladay | 2.42 | 9 | 7 | 2010 | 33 | PHI | 17 | 17 | 6 | 3 | .563 | 130.0 | 127 | 40 | 35 | 17 | 112 | 172 | 10 |
| 2 | Matt Cain | 2.93 | 6 | 7 | 2010 | 25 | SFG | 16 | 16 | 3 | 2 | .462 | 107.2 | 88 | 37 | 35 | 35 | 76 | 146 | 7 |
| 3 | Jhoulys Chacin | 3.51 | 4 | 7 | 2010 | 22 | COL | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .364 | 66.2 | 55 | 31 | 26 | 32 | 71 | 128 | 4 |
| 4 | Roy Oswalt | 3.55 | 5 | 10 | 2010 | 32 | HOU | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0 | .333 | 104.0 | 89 | 44 | 41 | 29 | 97 | 116 | 11 |
| 5 | Dallas Braden | 3.83 | 4 | 7 | 2010 | 26 | OAK | 15 | 15 | 2 | 1 | .364 | 94.0 | 96 | 43 | 40 | 16 | 58 | 108 | 10 |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | 3.94 | 4 | 8 | 2010 | 26 | KCR | 17 | 17 | 2 | 0 | .333 | 112.0 | 114 | 56 | 49 | 20 | 92 | 106 | 13 |
| 7 | Cole Hamels | 4.07 | 6 | 7 | 2010 | 26 | PHI | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0 | .462 | 97.1 | 96 | 47 | 44 | 34 | 96 | 102 | 18 |
| 8 | Jeremy Guthrie | 4.30 | 3 | 9 | 2010 | 31 | BAL | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0 | .250 | 102.2 | 96 | 51 | 49 | 26 | 55 | 99 | 13 |
| 9 | Felipe Paulino | 4.40 | 1 | 8 | 2010 | 26 | HOU | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | .111 | 86.0 | 87 | 53 | 42 | 43 | 76 | 94 | 2 |
| 10 | Chris Volstad | 4.45 | 4 | 7 | 2010 | 23 | FLA | 16 | 16 | 1 | 0 | .364 | 95.0 | 94 | 52 | 47 | 34 | 64 | 93 | 8 |
The top 4--Halladay, Cain, Chacin, and Oswalt--have been particularly unlucky. I mean, Halladay has a 172 ERA+, 112/17 K/BB and is still only 9-7. He and Hamels have both suffered some during the Phillies' offensive downswing. Cain and Chacin also have very good peripheral numbers and little to show for them in terms of wins and losses. Of course, as we all know, wins are overrated.
By the way, apparently Jhoulys Chacin is not related to Gustavo Chacin although both were born in Venezuela. Sort of reminds me Gustavo Molina, now catching for the Red Sox with both Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek on the DL. He's not related to the other three catchers with the same surname--Yadier Molina, Bengie Molina, and Jose Molina. (The Molina brothers are from Puerto Rico while Gustavo is from Venezuela.)
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:26 am
Poor Johan Santana. Not good enough to be an "ace"; not bad enough to be on the "hard-luck pitcher" list. (He's gotten 11 total runs of support over his last seven starts... I'd say that's bad luck for a pitcher with sub-3.50 ERA...).
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:37 am
Well, I'd say he was just too Metsy to get any play here.
Leaders in "tough losses":
R. Oswalt - 7
B. Matusz - 5
C. Volstad - 4
W. Rodriguez - 4
J. Shields - 4
H. Kuroda - 4
C. Hamels - 4
R. Dempster - 4
D. Bush - 4
Halladay has 3.
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:38 am
What's the official definition of Tough Losses?
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:41 am
Santana actually has no tough losses. (Not to say he hasn't had some weak run support, but he did give up at least 4 runs in each of his losses.)
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:42 am
Losing when you have a quality start. (I think the old Bill James definition was in games with a game score over 50, but B-R uses quality starts.)
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:45 am
Changing it to the Bill James definition, Oswalt still leads with 6, and five guys are tied with 4: Verlander, Myers, Halladay, Dempster, and Cain. (Does Cain make these lists every year?)
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:46 am
I hate W/L record as a stat, They'll never get rid of it because it's too ingrained in baseball history. It just doesn't explain how well or poorly a pitcher pitched.
It's not surprising that the 3 of the bottom 11 in run support in the majors are on this list: Braden 4th worst, Oswalt 5th worst, and Gutherie 11th. I think Johan is 6th or 7th as far as worst run support goes. Cain is just having bad luck same for Halladay.
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:47 am
Most tough losses, BJ definition, 2006-2010: Matt Cain 22, J. Vazquez 21.....
Most tough losses, B-R definition, 2006-2010: Peavy, Oswalt, Lowe 20; Matt Cain, J. Santana 19.....
July 2nd, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Where's that guy who had argued last time that wins tells you how well a pitcher performed?
They really need to do away with this garbage. I just heard a guy call into a local radio show saying "And Halladay hasn't been that good, he's only 9-7" The average fan is too dumb for W-L records.
July 2nd, 2010 at 2:00 pm
Hey guys completely off-topic question here that I tried to figure out but I couldn't. ESPN did a little thing on Moyer when he gave up his 506th home run, and they said he has given up every kind of home run, including walk-offs. Got me thinking...how rare is it these days for a starting pitcher to give up a walk-off in a game in which they started (probably a lot more common in years past). I have no doubt most of you are much better with the play index than myself so any help with this question would be appreciated. Thanks fellas.
July 2nd, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Surly Duff, the post is about pitchers with lots of losses; Santana's tough luck hasn't resulted in lots of losses. It's resulted in a lack of wins. In his nine starts in which he's allowed one run or less, he has more no-decisions (five) than wins (four). But he hasn't really had any tough-luck losses.
July 2nd, 2010 at 2:12 pm
Cain really is one of the worst tough luck pitchers every year. Throughout his career, he's been saddled with terrible run support from the offense-challenged Giants. Between 2007 and 2008 combined, he put up a cumulative 3.71 ERA, but went 15-30 with 21 no-decisions. He went 14-8 last year, but really should've been even better than that with how well he pitched (2.89 ERA, 6 ND's when tossing 7+ innings and allowing 2 runs or less).
And I think record-wise, Halladay is actually hurt by how often he pitches deep into games, because he's more likely to get a decision, and with the Phillies not hitting, that's more likely to be a loss, even if he pitches well. If he didn't always pitch so deep into games, he might have less wins, but he'd certainly have less losses. His last game is a perfect example - he took a complete game loss, giving up the lead in the bottom of the 8th inning. Most other starters would've been out of the game by then, so they wouldn't have had the chance to get the loss.
And I have to mention Santana again. He's not racking up the tough luck losses, but he sure is racking up the tough luck no-decisions. I've made this point before, but it continues to be an important one - he now has 6 games this season (including last night) when he's pitched 7 or more innings, given up 2 runs or less, and NOT gotten the win. Everyone has started to chirp about Santana losing something, but really, he's still pitching like an ace for the most part. He just doesn't have much to show for it.
July 2nd, 2010 at 3:37 pm
Santana is tied for 10th with 7 games of 7+ IP and 2- R.
68% of such performances this season result in a W for the SP. Santana has 1 out 7.
22% result in no-decisions and Santana has the 6 of 7. Ricky Romero is 2nd with 4 such no-decisions.
And of the 34 pitchers with at least 6 such games this season, Santana has the 3rd best ERA in those particular games. The two guys ahead of him have gone 11-1 in their 14 games. The two guys with the worst ERAs in such games (those ERAs are still under 2) are 9-0 in their 12 starts. Santana is 1-0 in his 7. That really is an incredible run of no-decision luck.
And: Santana has five starts in which he has allowed 0 ER, tied for 2nd most. He has one win in those games. When a SP gives up 0 ER (and of course this will include a few games where guys left early with injury, etc), they get a win 73% of the time.
July 2nd, 2010 at 4:03 pm
The run support these guys "benefit" from their offense also speaks for itself:
Halladay 4.6 runs per start (while he's in the game), 61st among 134 MLB starters.
Hamels 4.2, 81st
Volstad 4.1, 82nd
Greinke 3.6, 106th
Cain 3.4, 114th
Chacin 3.1, 120th
Paulino 3.0, 122nd
Guthrie 2.9, 125th
Oswalt 2.8, 128th
Braden 2.1, 133rd
July 2nd, 2010 at 4:15 pm
Good stuff Twisto.
Very good points Joe, especially about Halladay pitching longer into games, I hadn't thought of that. That's a little bit like Phil Niekro in the 70's where he would pitch so many complete games that he'd get a lot of losses instead of no-decisions.
Santana's season is reminding me a little bit like a lesser version of David Cone's 1993 season. Cone had something like a 6.4 WAR and a 138era+ and actually had a losing season. Cone lead the league with the worst runs/per game with 2.9. I think in 1993 Cone had something like 7 games that he gave up 2 earned runs, 1 game he gave up 1 earned run, and 1 game he gave up 0 earned runs and he ended up losing 5 of them and received 4 no-decisions. And I think he pitched at least 7-8 innings in 7 of those games one game he pitched 6 innings and one game I think he actually pitched 9 innings, gave up 2 or less earned runs and got the loss.
July 2nd, 2010 at 5:15 pm
"Everyone has started to chirp about Santana losing something"
This might be more due to the fact that his K/9 is just 5.9. It was 7.9 the past two seasons and over 9 the six previous seasons. His walk rate is also up (though not by much)
July 2nd, 2010 at 5:24 pm
I've found a season that I think may take the unlucky cake - Joe Magrane in 1988. He led the NL with a 2.18 ERA and a 161 ERA+, but finished just 5-9 with 10 ND's. 3 of his 5 wins were shutouts. He pitched 7+ innings, gave up 2 ER or less, and failed to get the win 13 (!) times that year, because of the atrocious 2.56 runs of support per game he got from the Cardinals.
Of course, the next season, he had a 2.91 ERA and a 124 ERA+, but this time went 18-9 while finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting. Go figure.
July 2nd, 2010 at 6:12 pm
I see that both guys who pitched perfect games this year are on this list.
Regarding the off-topic question about Jamie Moyer giving up a walk-off home run - Although he has been a starter for most of his career, he has made some relief appearances, including some last year.
I was able to find the game in which he surrendered a walk-off home run, which was hit by Alfonso Soriano in a game the Mariners played in Texas on June 24, 2004. It was an 18-inning game in which he was the 8th pitcher used by Seattle and was his only relief appearance that year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX200406240.shtml
The Rangers had scored a run in the bottom of the ninth off Eddie Guardado to tie the score at 7. Then the two teams played the equivalent of another game before the Soriano two-run blast in the bottom of the 18th, for a final score of Texas 9, Seattle 7.
This is also the only extra inning home run that Moyer has surrendered, which is not surprising, since he's been a starter for most of his career. He's also only given up four in the 9th inning, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of these were in complete games in which his team had a big enough lead that he was still in the game as a starter.
July 2nd, 2010 at 7:18 pm
The old, old, Bill James version was losing with a quality start. I think he actually talked about it before the quality start metric became official, though I'm not sure.
July 2nd, 2010 at 11:34 pm
Carl, my memory as to Bill's version may be mistaken. I don't think Quality Starts have ever become an "official" stat (though these days, does it really matter, and does anyone really know, what's official?)
July 3rd, 2010 at 7:33 am
#10 Bryan, I just wrote a post about your question, here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7095
(The post might not be live for an hour or two. If not, check back later.)
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:10 pm
My own pwesonal definition of a tough loss;
Any loss that would make Lefty Grove destroy a locker room {jusrt ask Jim Moore}.