Vlad Guerrero has a good HR-to-strikeout ratio
Posted by Andy on July 22, 2010
As of yesterday, Vladimir Guerrero is the only player this season with a HR total at least 60% of his srtikeout total, minimum 4 homers. Click through for details.
| Rk | HR ▾ | SO | Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vladimir Guerrero | 20 | 31 | 2010 | 35 | TEX | 88 | 380 | 345 | 61 | 110 | 14 | 1 | 76 | 25 | .319 | .368 | .539 | .908 | *D9/7 |
| 2 | Ross Gload | 3 | 4 | 2010 | 34 | PHI | 59 | 75 | 72 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 2 | .250 | .280 | .417 | .697 | /39D7 |
| 3 | Drew Sutton | 1 | 1 | 2010 | 27 | CIN | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .667 | .667 | 1.667 | 2.333 | /*6*4*5 |
| 4 | Gustavo Chacin | 1 | 0 | 2010 | 29 | HOU | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | *1 |
Last year, Albert Pujols was the only guy to do it:
| Rk | Player | HR | SO | Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | Pos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albert Pujols | 47 | 64 | 2009 | 29 | STL | 160 | 700 | 568 | 124 | 186 | 45 | 1 | 135 | 115 | .327 | .443 | .658 | 1.101 | *3/D |
| 2 | Gaby Sanchez | 2 | 3 | 2009 | 25 | FLA | 21 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .238 | .304 | .524 | .828 | /3 |
| 3 | Dusty Brown | 1 | 0 | 2009 | 27 | BOS | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 | .500 | 1.333 | 1.833 | /*21 |
| 4 | Mark Buehrle | 1 | 1 | 2009 | 30 | CHW | 33 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1.250 | *1 |
| 5 | Tim Hudson | 1 | 1 | 2009 | 33 | ATL | 7 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .333 | .429 | .583 | 1.012 | /*1 |
| 6 | Jeff Samardzija | 1 | 1 | 2009 | 24 | CHC | 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .200 | .200 | .800 | 1.000 | *1 |
You can see the full list of such seasons since 1901 here. It used to happen a lot more often although some of the really big HR seasons from recent years qualify.
The real proof that it used to be a lot more common is the list of guys who had HR totals at least 60% of their strikeout total for their entire career:
| Rk | Player | HR | SO | From | To | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | Pos | Tm | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Williams | 521 | 709 | 1939 | 1960 | 20-41 | 2292 | 9791 | 7706 | 1798 | 2654 | 525 | 71 | 1839 | 2021 | .344 | .482 | .634 | 1.116 | *79/1 | BOS |
| 2 | Lou Gehrig | 493 | 790 | 1923 | 1939 | 20-36 | 2164 | 9660 | 8001 | 1888 | 2721 | 534 | 163 | 1995 | 1508 | .340 | .447 | .632 | 1.080 | *3/976 | NYY |
| 3 | Stan Musial | 475 | 696 | 1941 | 1963 | 20-42 | 3026 | 12712 | 10972 | 1949 | 3630 | 725 | 177 | 1951 | 1599 | .331 | .417 | .559 | .976 | 3798/1 | STL |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | 388 | 616 | 2001 | 2010 | 21-30 | 1492 | 6491 | 5489 | 1131 | 1823 | 410 | 15 | 1179 | 873 | .332 | .426 | .624 | 1.051 | *37/59D64 | STL |
| 5 | Joe DiMaggio | 361 | 369 | 1936 | 1951 | 21-36 | 1736 | 7671 | 6821 | 1390 | 2214 | 389 | 131 | 1537 | 790 | .325 | .398 | .579 | .977 | *8/793 | NYY |
| 6 | Johnny Mize | 359 | 524 | 1936 | 1953 | 23-40 | 1884 | 7371 | 6443 | 1118 | 2011 | 367 | 83 | 1337 | 856 | .312 | .397 | .562 | .959 | *3/9 | STL-NYG-TOT-NYY |
| 7 | Yogi Berra | 358 | 414 | 1946 | 1965 | 21-40 | 2120 | 8364 | 7555 | 1175 | 2150 | 321 | 49 | 1430 | 704 | .285 | .348 | .482 | .830 | *279/35 | NYY-NYM |
| 8 | Ted Kluszewski | 279 | 365 | 1947 | 1961 | 22-36 | 1718 | 6470 | 5929 | 848 | 1766 | 290 | 29 | 1028 | 492 | .298 | .353 | .498 | .850 | *3 | CIN-PIT-TOT-CHW-LAA |
| 9 | Bill Dickey | 202 | 289 | 1928 | 1946 | 21-39 | 1789 | 7060 | 6300 | 930 | 1969 | 343 | 72 | 1209 | 678 | .313 | .382 | .486 | .868 | *2 | NYY |
| 10 | Ken Williams | 196 | 287 | 1915 | 1929 | 25-39 | 1397 | 5616 | 4862 | 860 | 1552 | 285 | 77 | 913 | 566 | .319 | .393 | .530 | .924 | *78/934 | CIN-SLB-BOS |
| 11 | Ernie Lombardi | 190 | 262 | 1931 | 1947 | 23-39 | 1853 | 6349 | 5855 | 601 | 1792 | 277 | 27 | 990 | 430 | .306 | .358 | .460 | .818 | *2 | BRO-CIN-BSN-NYG |
| 12 | Frank McCormick | 128 | 189 | 1934 | 1948 | 23-37 | 1534 | 6207 | 5723 | 722 | 1711 | 334 | 26 | 954 | 399 | .299 | .348 | .434 | .781 | *3/49 | CIN-PHI-TOT-BSN |
| 13 | Zeke Bonura | 119 | 180 | 1934 | 1940 | 25-31 | 917 | 4026 | 3582 | 600 | 1099 | 232 | 29 | 704 | 404 | .307 | .380 | .487 | .867 | *3 | CHW-WSH-NYG-TOT |
| 14 | Lefty O'Doul | 113 | 122 | 1919 | 1934 | 22-37 | 970 | 3659 | 3264 | 624 | 1140 | 175 | 41 | 542 | 333 | .349 | .413 | .532 | .945 | *7/918 | NYY-BOS-NYG-PHI-BRO-TOT |
Pujols is at about 63% right now but it seems unlikely to me that he'll stay above 60% for the remainder of his career. His HR rate is likely to go down at the years go on while his K rate is likely to rise at least a little.
Most impressive on this last list are Joe DiMaggio and Lefty O'Doul who both nearly managed to finish their careers with as many homers as strikeouts. Going into his final season, DiMaggio had 349 HR and 333 strikeouts. O'Doul actually got closer in his final season, registering 9 HR and only 7 strikeouts.
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:27 am
Interesting list.
Stan Musial's career has always fascinated me. He falls into a category that has always got my noggin going - those HOF players with the *lowest* highest similarity scores with other players. Stan's highest similarity score is Yaz at 764.
Others with the highest similarity scores in that range are the Babe and Ty Cobb. Rickey Henderson has the lowest-highest (if that makes sense) that I've been able to find amongst HOF-ers at 713 (Craig Biggio).
That suggests to me that those players have had extremely unusual careers, if I understand the stat correctly.
But I don't know how to search on this. Does anybody else?
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:32 am
Wonder no more, Mr. Kingman:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/similarity.shtml
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:35 am
It would be very interesting and informative to juxtapose pitcher K/IP ratio to this HR/K ratio. Say 1920-1960 would cover all but two of the above batters, one falling before (Ken Williams) and one after (Pujols), against the pitchers from 1970-2010.
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:36 am
Nice. I never knew that was there.
Is there a way to see more of the Career list? Can you do a search somehow?
I'm also bummed I didn't win the 1979 MVP, by the way. Wuz robbed.
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:36 am
Is Johnny Mize the only player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and strike out less than 50 times?
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:39 am
JR, yes. Here are the fewest strikeouts in a 50-HR season:
Generated 7/22/2010.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:02 am
Pujols was close in '06: 49 HR 50 K.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:14 am
I decided to go in the opposite direction and find the fewest home runs with greater than or equal to 175 K's. Since I am not a Play Index subscriber, I can only see the partial list, but the fewest I saw was #25 Bobby Bonds with 26 home runs (there are 33 total). This makes sense because you would expect some power production from guys who are going to whiff in one-third of their at-bats.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:15 am
I am pretty sure that Jose Hernandez would fall lower on the list.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:18 am
Here you go Bryan.
The bigger question is--why aren't you a PI subscriber? 🙂
Generated 7/22/2010.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:24 am
Jose Hernandez the lowest with 13 HR in 2003, Mark Bellhorn with 17 in 2004 is next. They are the only 2 below 20.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:26 am
Cross-posted - guess I'll have to be faster next time.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:40 am
How was Dave Kingman "robbed" of the 1979 MVP? I grant you that Stargell should have had no part of the "Co-MVP", Winfield probably should have won it when you factor his home ballpark. Hernandez was a good choice, Schmidt could have been in the mix, Gary Carter, and Dave Parker if you wanted a Pirate.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:41 am
Andy-
I am trying to talk my wife into letting me spend the extra money but she uses the "I am a widow from April to October" excuse. Maybe I should put my foot down and say "Listen here woman..." The only reason I can safely say that is because she doesn't read this blog :). That being said, I will get the PI soon because I read every post but often feel limited in my responses because I can't use the PI tool. I know you have answered this question many times before, but is there a "how to" with the PI?
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:48 am
Bryan, on the right side of your screen where there are categories for posts, you can find a "tutorials" tag and a "tutorial videos" tag. Click on those to see back posts on this blog with lots of helpful info. Those were all done, I believe, by Neil.
Far be it from me to get involved in the decision-making process between you and your wife, but perhaps you can make the argument that having the PI would eliminate the need for manual searching and make everything faster...
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:57 am
Outstanding point Andy, I will certainly use that. Now we can say that baseball-refrence, in addition to offering the most complete list of baseball statistics in the world, also offers a little advice on life! Do I see a marriage-reference coming...just kidding, now back to baseball...
July 22nd, 2010 at 10:00 am
LOL. It would make my day if a bunch of you readers submitted the idea of marriage-reference.com through the site feedback form. Heh.
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:18 am
Andy, I am doing some personal research and wanted to see if you could confirm something for me. I am looking for those players that have hit at least 40 home runs and compiled at least 130 RBI in at least 3 consecutive years. My research has produced eight names: Babe Ruth (7 years), Ryan Howard (4 years), Ken Griffery Jr. (4 years), Sammy Sosa (4 years), Alex Rodriguez (3 years), Juan Gonzalez (3 years), Jimmie Foxx (3 years) and David Ortiz (3 years). Do you know of any others? Thank you for your time and consideration.
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:21 am
MStubel--unfortunately the PI does not have a season streak finder feature. I wish it did and it's something I've put on a wishlist in the past. So there is no automated way to look up your question. There are other readers here, though, who have their own databases and can probably run it for you.
Actually, come to think of it, there haven't been all that many 40/130 seasons. Here are all the guys to have at least 3 in their career, although not necessarily consecutively. Should be easy for you to check this list for any you missed:
Generated 7/22/2010.
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:23 am
Looks like you got them all---the 4 guys on my list who are not on yours (Greenberg, Delgado, Gehrig, and ManRam) didn't have 3 straight seasons.
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:31 am
Thanks a lot, Andy, I appreciate the timely response. Howard is projected to finish with 38 HR and 129 RBI this year. Considering he is usually better in the second half, 40/130 seems plausible. That would be his fifth consecutive year at that plateau, leaving him only Ruth to catch. That's amazing.
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:40 am
Vlad might be the greatest free-swinger of all time. He swings at more pitches outside the strike zone than any player in the game (according to FanGraphs), but he's always had a strikeout rate well below the league average. He's never hit below .300--and only a couple times has he even been below .310--and obviously he hits for great power. He's also fourth all-time in intentional walks--he's drawn so many of them that his career walk rate is actually about league-average, remarkable for a free-swinger. You just can't pitch around him. He hits everything, and he hits it well. If there's a hitter who truly deserves the "feared" label, it's Vlad.
July 22nd, 2010 at 1:08 pm
Dont forget DiMaggio played in Yankee stadium where it is estimated he lost conservatively at least 50 HRs because it is not righty friendly. He also missed ages 28, 29, and 30 because of the war...right in his prime so you can also probably assume he would have had a HR/K > 1 in those years.
July 22nd, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Maybe a HoF poll for Vlad? Or is his election a foregone conclusion? I'd like to think it is but don't know what the prevailing consensus is.
July 22nd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
@10, if you use the linear weights of HR = 1.409 and K = -0.31 (http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html) you would need 1 HR for every 4.5 K to break even. So at 175 K you would need ~ 38.5 HRs.
So only Buhner '97 and above make it except for Reynolds last year.
July 22nd, 2010 at 5:34 pm
There's no hitter to compare to Guerrero. I can say I've ever seen such a free swinger put up those type of numbers, particularly his average. Phenomenal reflexes. It's almost impossible to believe he's never struck 100 times in a season. He could quit today and would get my HOF vote, which would put another Expo in the Hall!!
July 22nd, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Another wacky thing about Guerrero this year: 20 HR and 20 UIBB. Dude loves to hack.
July 22nd, 2010 at 6:56 pm
this is one of my favorite topics. We fans, and bb execs, are so fond of the sluggers that we overlook horrible bat control. I don't think a guy like Mark Reynolds woulda made it back in the 60s and 70s, where even great sluggers like Aaron only struck out every 8 or 9 at bats. You were expected to exercise decent bat control. Even a one dimensional slugger like kluziewski had good bat control. Today, guys like Thome and Reynolds strike out every 2.5 at bats. I think they just swing as hard as they can and hope for the best.
July 22nd, 2010 at 7:12 pm
btw, any chance #1 is the real kingman?
July 22nd, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Barkfart,
First you were lumping Thome in with Dave Kingman, now you're lumping him in with Mark Reynolds? Thome in his prime hit ~.285 and walked 100+ times a year. He wasn't just swinging as hard as he could and hoping for the best. That describes Jeff Francoeur--though he's probably the next guy you'll compare Jim Thome to.
July 22nd, 2010 at 7:48 pm
As I brought up in a previous post, the game has changed so much in the way hitters look at striking out. Back in the day, it was much more of a matter of pride to not strike out, and it was embarrassing if you did. Now, many sluggers simply don't really care how often they strike out, as long as they keep producing. Strikeouts are looked at much more as just another out now, and sluggers don't want to risk changing their swings. The list of the highest strikeout seasons in history is littered with seasons from just the last few years.
But back to Vlad - BSK, as long as he doesn't suddenly turn into Scrubby McScrubberson and ruin the voters' memories of him when he gets on the ballot in ten years time or so, I think he's pretty much a lock. He's been one of the best hitters in the game for over a decade, and he used to have one of the best outfield arms in baseball, as well. For being such a free swinger, his lack of strikeouts is amazing. I've heard comparisons to Yogi Berra, which makes sense, but my initial point about this era compared to that era certainly makes Vlad even more impressive in this area.
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:48 pm
Mike/25, I don't think it quite works like that. Even for free swingers, many other things can happen besides a HR or K.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Some point to Vlad's lack of walks and he never had a great walk rate. But, he always had a good-to-great OBP. Now, maybe advanced stats will say otherwise, but as far as I'm concerned, a good OBP is a good OBP, whether it's acquired via high average and low walks or a lower average with more walks. I realize that when evaluating a playing, a high-average/low-walk guy is unlikely to sustain that production long term. But Vlad has clearly demonstrated the ability to, so power to him!
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:15 pm
BSK, Vlad rates just as well by the advanced stats as he does by the traditional ones. Vlad's career wOBA (a linear-weights-based stat scaled to OBP) is .396, and has been over .400 seven different seasons. His TAv (a similar stat, but scaled to batting average) is .308, and has been over .300 nine different seasons.
Any way you slice his numbers, Vlad has been a great, great hitter. He should be a no-brainer HOF choice when his time comes.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:24 pm
The DiMaggio HR/SO ratio has always been one of the most impressive stats to me (and I'm a huge Ted Williams fan btw). 361 HRs and only 369 Ks!!
I wonder what the record is for "most career home runs by a player with more home runs than strikeouts"?
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:09 pm
DavidJ, what is TAv?
Obviously it's not the same as Total Average though it appears to have a similar name.
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:49 pm
TAv (True Average) is just the new name for EqA (Equivalent Average).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivalent_average
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:25 am
DavidJ-
Thanks. I didn't mean to imply that advanced stats would disagree with that. Only that some people seem so focused on certain stats that they disregard big picture. I genuinely hear people decry his low uIBB rate. Really? He always has a good-to-great OBP and puts up phenomenal numbers. He demonstrates he can maintain that production despite a single metric implying he can't. So who cares? I'm glad the more comprehensive numbers demonstrate his true greatness. There are certainly knocks on Guerrero. There were definitely areas of his game that were actually a detriment to his production and his team's success (such as his piss-poor SB numbers). But his walk rate is certainly not one of them.
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:55 am
Great job on the blog, Andy. I happened upon Joe Dimaggio's page and noticed he won the 1947 MVP award with some, shall I say, pedestrian stats. Other things I noticed about that season:
- 7 of the top 15 vote getters were Yankees
- Ted Williams should have won in a landslide
- not one Yankee had 100 RBIs
- not one Yankee hit more than 20 homers
- only 3 of their pitchers had double digit wins with 19 being the most
- the NL MVP may be even more shocking. Mize & Kiner each hit 51 homers and .300 - and placed 3rd and 6th respectively
Have you ever done a post about this season? If so, I'd love to read it.
July 23rd, 2010 at 1:27 am
I almost became someone who hit over 40 home runs in two different seasons - one whilst batting over .300 and another batting under .300. Missed it by a bit on each end in 1979 and 1982. For that reason alone, shouldn't I have won at least one MVP?
July 23rd, 2010 at 6:49 am
A lot of what's written here about Guerrero was being written about Berra 50 years ago. A notorious bad-ball hitter, famed for swinging at pitches above his head (and smacking them down the line for doubles).
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:10 am
#35 Jeff, here is the list:
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/r4Chk
Keith McDonald holds the record with 3 HR and 2 K. Two players--Mark Worrell and Estaban Yan--have homered without ever striking out.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:25 pm
@ Gerry and David
I haven't seen great video of Berra, but the anecdotal reports of his out-of-strike-zone prowess is pretty substantial. But having watched Vlad, and watched him from multiple angles and in HD, I sometimes cannot believe what I am seeing. He gets totally fooled, his butt down the third base line, his shoulders and elbows committed to a fastball, and he flicks his wrists at a change in the dirt and hits it with authority consistently. It almost reminds me of when Miguel Cabrera hit an intentional walk pitch for a single. I wish I remembered the specifics of that at bat. But Vlad has made a career of hitting pitcher's 'waste pitches.'
Granted the guy is a giant with long arms, as opposed to Berra being short and squat. But he has virtually no strike zone judgement, and it doesn't affect him in the least. The guys a monster. I'm glad he's doing well in Texas.