8+ ER in 8+ IP
Posted by Andy on August 10, 2010
In looking at my recent Josh Beckett post I noticed he had a start last year allowing 8 earned runs while pitching 8 innings. That struck me as unusual. Indeed, here are the only times a pitcher has allowed at least 8 ER in at least 8 IP in the last 25 full seasons:
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Beckett | 2009-08-23 | BOS | NYY | L 4-8 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 37 |
| 2 | Carlos Silva | 2006-04-18 | MIN | LAA | L 2-8 | GS-9 ,L | 8.2 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| 3 | Paul Byrd | 2002-09-09 | KCR | CHW | L 6-10 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Randy Johnson | 1998-07-05 | SEA | TEX | L 4-8 | CG 8 ,L | 8.0 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 42 |
| 5 | Pat Hentgen | 1997-06-25 | TOR | BOS | L 12-13 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Pat Hentgen | 1996-08-07 | TOR | BOS | L 0-8 | CG 8 ,L | 8.0 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 36 |
| 7 | Ben McDonald | 1992-06-21 | BAL | NYY | L 2-8 | GS-9 ,L | 8.2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 43 |
| 8 | Mark Williamson | 1988-05-25 | BAL | OAK | L 1-8 | CG 8 ,L | 8.0 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 37 |
| 9 | Mike Morgan | 1987-04-10 | SEA | MIN | L 1-8 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 31 |
| 10 | Floyd Youmans | 1986-10-02 | MON | NYM | L 2-8 | CG 9 ,L | 9.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 46 |
| 11 | Fernando Valenzuela | 1986-05-09 | LAD | MON | L 4-8 | CG 8 ,L | 8.0 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 33 |
| 12 | Britt Burns | 1985-07-13 | CHW | BAL | W 10-8 | CG 9 ,W | 9.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 38 |
I am pretty sure I blogged about this last year but posting it again is faster than trying to find my old post...
August 10th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
I guess pinch hitting is the reason '86 was the last season to see this in the NL, and amazing Hentgen did it twice in 10 months.
August 10th, 2010 at 10:43 pm
Wow, in the 1985 game, Britt Burns was staked to a 9-0 lead, allowed 8 runs in the next two innings, then retired 13 of the last 14.
August 10th, 2010 at 10:45 pm
Burns just knew how to win. He taught Jack Morris everything he knew. And then he got traded to the Yankees.
August 10th, 2010 at 11:22 pm
Pat Hentgen, June 25, 1997: 38 batters faced . . . 76 pitches?! Can that be right? (Tango's pitch-count estimator would predict 131.) I know Hentgen was taking one for the team that night because the Jays' bullpen was worn out. Still, was he just throwing BP out there? I'd love to read an account of that game to find out whether the ultra-low pitch count is accurate.
August 10th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
@4 Highly doubt it's accurate. Look at Wakefield that game. 52 pitches vs. 28 batters, plus 10 of those walked or struck out? Even less believeable than Hentgen's numbers.
August 11th, 2010 at 1:14 am
Guys, just look at the PBP. There are several innings missing pitch info
August 11th, 2010 at 1:16 am
The Carlos Silva one is most surprising to me. He was LOSING the game 5-2 when the 8th inning started and although he gets two outs (one was only a bunt ground-out though) he's left in to allow three singles and a double before being replaced.
I'm not sure how much a baseball manager can help you win, but man, he can sure help you lose.
August 11th, 2010 at 1:33 am
Hey, a bit unrelated, but the top 4 WAR leaders in the NL are pitchers, has that ever happened before? And Jiminez ain't one of them, even though he threw a gem tonight.
I wonder with the introduction and wide spread use of WAR, how heavily that will play out when the writers are deciding awards this year.
And Johnny '2 ns' twisto, are you baiting me, with your Jack Morris comparison...lol
August 11th, 2010 at 1:51 am
Guys, just look at the PBP. There are several innings missing pitch info
Of course you're right, Richard — d'oh! Interpolating, the box score shows 76 pitches being thrown to 27 batters, or 2.815 pitches per batter; assume the same rate for the 11 batters with no pitch info and Hentgen's eight-inning pitch count rises to 107. That sounds about right.
I'll try to find something else to be astounded by. (-;þ
August 11th, 2010 at 2:01 am
It's all good. Same thing happened to me while looking up a Greg Maddux start a year or two ago.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:00 am
anyone remember Britt Burns lone playff game? Went down hard after 9 shutout nnnings to end the 1983 alcs to baltimore
August 11th, 2010 at 7:25 am
@5: Though 6 already answered the problem (many innings missing pitch count data) Wakefield's pitch count is not just unbelievable in that game, it's literally impossible. He faced 28 batters, walked 5 and struck out 5. The 5 SOs require at least 15 pitches, and the 5 walks require at least 20 pitches, that's 35, leaving 17 pitches for other batters, of which he faced 18: literally impossible.
August 11th, 2010 at 8:06 am
It is worse to present partial pitch counts than no pitch count, because people never realize they are incomplete. I really wish B-R wouldn't do that. Keep the pitch information for the particular batters or innings where it exists, but don't present a total count as if it were complete.
August 11th, 2010 at 9:07 am
Britt Burns holds the AL record for most wins in a final season with 18. (Koufax holds the MLB record with 25 wins)
August 11th, 2010 at 9:52 am
Mike Mussina won 20 in his last season with the Yankees.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:11 am
Richard @7,
How exactly did Gardenhire help the Twins lose in terms of his management of his pitchers that night? When the 9th inning began they were losing 5-2 and the win probability chart gave them ~4% chance of winning the game. In any event, he had pitched well the previous three innings and retired 2 of the first three batters he faced in the 9th. After the 4th batter hit an RBI double the win probability chart gave the Twins ~2% chance of winning.
On the other hand, SIlva staying out there for all eight innings gave the Twins a well-rested bullpen the next night. The next night Lohse was knocked out after allowing 8 runs in 3.1 (arguably being left in too long - Twins were losing 6-4 when he was lifted), however 5 Twins relievers combined to give up only 2 more runs over 6.2 innings as they ultimately prevailed 12-10 in 10 innings.
A manager's job, during the regular season, is to maximize the number of wins during the season, not to maximize the chances of winning each individual game (with a few exceptions, such as facing the team with which the team is in a pennant race where certain games might have added value). Gardenhire's management of the Silva game seems consistent with this goal.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:28 am
I just looked up Hentgen's game logs for '96 and there really seems to be two pitchers there. I always thought of his '96 as one of the weaker CY YOUNGS, but down the stretch the guy was lights out.
First 18 starts: 7-6, 4.14 ERA, 124 IP, 6.9 IP per start,
Next 17 starts: 13-4, 2.41 ERA, 141.67 IP, 8.33 per start.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:32 am
All-Star Break steroids, obviously.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:43 am
8.33 IP per start...geez.
Here are the most reason seasons when a guy averaged at least 8.3 IP per game start (calculated just by IP > 8.3*GS so if he had a lot of relief appearances, it makes it easer to qualify by adding innings without adding a game start), minimum 20 GS:
Generated 8/11/2010.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:59 am
@15. Thank you for the correction Eric, I completely forgot about that.
August 11th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
Cliff Lee currently has the longest streak of 8+ IP starts since Hentgen in '96. To be ended tonight.
August 11th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
The top of Andy's list is all guys with a lot of relief innings artificially increasing their IP/GS. So the most recent guy to really do it was McCatty in 1981, and over a full season his teammates Norris and Langford in '80.
I thought Maddux was close in '94; he had 8.08 IP/GS.
August 11th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
We may never see anyone average 8.33 IP for more than 20 starts again. What Lee has done this season is off the charts for the modern era but he still averages 'only' 8.16IP per start.
Only 3 pitchers on the above list actually started all their games. Tanana (averaged 8.48 IP for 34 starts), Norris (8.62 for 33 starts), McCatty (8.44 for 22 starts). It's common to see people starts 33/3 games a la Norris and Tanana, but it could be a long time before we see anyone pitch 280+ innings. The last to top that was Charlie Hough in 1987, although Clemens and Johnson topped 270 and Halladay has reached 266 (and could get close to that this year).
August 11th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
That should say it's common to see people start 33/34 games.......
August 11th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
@ Twisto #18
It wasn't the break nor the roids, twas Jack Morris taught 'em good.
August 11th, 2010 at 11:19 pm
Topics such as this one are what make this blog so interesting. 8 IP/8 R, a previously unidentified oddity.
And take a look at that Britt Burns game. In the bottom of the fifth, immediately after Burns gave up a grand slam to Gary Roenicke that allowed the Orioles to close the gap to a 9-8, the White Sox made a substitution. But it's not Burns who left the field, it's Carlton Fisk. It would be interesting to know the story behind that.
August 12th, 2010 at 8:04 am
Here's last year's post on this same topic:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2295