Wins In The Post-Season Where SP Failed
Posted by Steve Lombardi on September 23, 2010
How many times in the post-season has a team had their starting pitcher get really tanked and won the game, nonetheless?
In an attempt to identify the answer to that question, I used Play Index and ran the following query:
Games in the post-season, from 1903 to 2009, where the SP's team Won, and the SP had a GameScore <=25
Here's the list:
| Rk | Player | Date | Series | Gm# | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc | IR | IS | BF | AB | 2B | 3B | IBB | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | SB | CS | PO | BK | WP | WPA | RE24 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russ Ortiz | 2004-10-10 | NLDS | 4 | ATL | HOU | W 6-5 | GS-3 | 3.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 37 | 25 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.00 | -0.371 | 1.094 | |||
| 2 | Ramon Ortiz | 2002-10-04 | ALDS | 3 | ANA | NYY | W 9-6 | GS-3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 32 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20.25 | -0.273 | .967 | |||
| 3 | Andy Pettitte | 2000-10-08 | ALDS | 5 | NYY | OAK | W 7-5 | GS-4 | 3.2 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 88 | 55 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.27 | -0.204 | .987 | |||
| 4 | Andy Pettitte | 1999-10-26 | WS | 3 | NYY | ATL | W 6-5 | GS-4 | 3.2 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12.27 | -0.283 | 1.050 | |||||
| 5 | Bret Saberhagen | 1999-10-11 | ALDS | 5 | BOS | CLE | W 12-8 | GS-2 | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45.00 | -0.372 | 1.074 | |||||
| 6 | David Cone | 1997-09-30 | ALDS | 1 | NYY | CLE | W 8-6 | GS-4 | 3.1 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 62 | 40 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16.20 | -0.360 | .694 | |||
| 7 | Kenny Rogers | 1996-10-23 | WS | 4 | NYY | ATL | W 8-6 | GS-3 | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 52 | 26 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.50 | -0.289 | .924 | |||
| 8 | Todd Stottlemyre | 1993-10-20 | WS | 4 | TOR | PHI | W 15-14 | GS-2 | 2.0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 53 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | -0.486 | 1.201 | |||
| 9 | Bob Welch | 1988-10-08 | ALCS | 3 | OAK | BOS | W 10-6 | GS-2 | 1.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 55 | 35 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | -0.348 | 1.056 | |||
| 10 | Steve Blass | 1971-10-06 | NLCS | 4 | PIT | SFG | W 9-5 | GS-2 | 2.0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | -0.452 | 1.319 | |||||
| 11 | Mike Cuellar | 1970-10-03 | ALCS | 1 | BAL | MIN | W 10-6 | GS-5 | 4.1 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 25 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.46 | -0.217 | .898 | |||||
| 12 | Don Newcombe | 1956-10-05 | WS | 2 | BRO | NYY | W 13-8 | GS-2 | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32.40 | -0.366 | 1.211 | |||||
| 13 | Joe Hatten | 1947-10-02 | WS | 3 | BRO | NYY | W 9-8 | GS-5 | 4.1 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.46 | -0.081 | .811 |
.
Granted, this is not the end-all and be-all list, most likely, for this type of question. But, it's not a terrible answer to the question either.
In terms of "context" there have been 122 starts in the post-season where the SP had a GS <=25.
So, perhaps, it would not be a reach to say that, close to 90% of the time, when your starter fails badly in the post-season, you're going to lose the game? In any event, for sure, it's pretty rare for your starter to throw a true clunker in the post-season and for you to still win the game - according to these numbers.
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:07 pm
And how does that 90% compare to the regular season?
Since 1920, there have been 26,932 games in which the SP had a GS of 25 or less (almost 300 per season), and his team won 12.6% of the time.
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Saberhagen can thank Pedro and Troy O'Leary for that one.
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Teams win 91.9% of the time in the regular season when their SP has a GS of at least 75, and 91.1% in the postseason.
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:13 pm
According to Steve's chart, no team has ever won a postseason game when its SP had a GS of less than 17. That has happened 29 times. Twice by Tom Glavine (10 years apart) and twice by Tommy Greene in '93.
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:18 pm
So Smokey Joe Wood may have put up one of the all-time anti-clutch stinkers. After his phenomenal 34-5 season in 1912, he then gave Boston essentially no chance to win by allowing 6 runs in the first inning in game 7 of the Series. (However, the Series actually went 8 games -- one had been a tie -- and Wood had previously won 2 games, and then won game 8 in relief to clinch the title. So I guess he gets a break.)
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:19 pm
Nice list Steve. As you said it is probably not comprehensive in that it might miss some games where the starter was pulled early before his GS could get down to 25. Probably there are also some games which were pretty bad, but slightly above the cutoff.
Not sure how to answer this, but I wonder whether the quick hook strategy employed in the postseason is more likely to produce a comeback victory than the more patient approach often employed in the regular season (hope the starter settles down and give some length in order to improve the team's chances in a future contest).
On the face of the current search, there aren't very many of these comeback victories. Perhaps if we looked at games where the started went 4 IP or less might include more of these quick hook games. But this still doesn't give us much basis for comparison to similar patient approach games, which I would think would be very difficult to identify.
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:20 pm
~~~Teams win 91.9% of the time in the regular season when their SP has a GS of at least 75, and 91.1% in the postseason.~~~
Nice work Johnny.
FWIW, I never said it was different in the post-season than the regular season. Just rare for a team to win, period, when their starter failed badly. That said, it's interesting that the rates are so close.
So, let's just say that "Pitching is [insert high number]% of the game!" 🙂
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:22 pm
~~~ wonder whether the quick hook strategy employed in the postseason is more likely to produce a comeback victory than the more patient approach often employed in the regular season ~~~
A very good question!
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Wood led the league in ERA in 1915 (albeit in only 157 IP), but didn't get to pitch in the Series that season. Boston only used three pitchers in five games. Babe Ruth didn't get to pitch either, and only had 1 AB. Pretty good depth when you can leave a couple guys like that on the bench.
Now, back to work!
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:00 pm
Not related sorry....
How do I search for negative numbers in PI? I was searching for players between -0.5 & 0.5 WAR to see who was most average (for lack of a better term). I'd like to see who the all 'replacement' level team would be for this season....
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Thomas @10.
This doesn't answer your searching question, but you can answer your basic question by going to the 2010 MLB Batters page and sort on the WAR column:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-value-batting.shtml
You can then look in the range you are interested in. Unfortunately this only gives you the WAR components and PA, but not other stats.
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Wow, I gut sucked into this list, Steve. I started with the Steve Blass game in '71 because I remember the game. Yeah, Blass sucked but the opposite starting pitcher (Gaylord Perry) was as bad, with a game score of 25. Then I looked at the Bob Welch start in '88 - and, again, the O's starter (Boddicker) had a GS of 19 (worse than Welch's 21). In fact, in 6 of the 13 cases, the other SP had a game score as bad or worse than the pitcher listed. So, it's not like a lot of these were great comebacks, but games where neither pitcher had it from the beginning.
The average GS for those on the list is 22.5. The opposition? 29.7. The best in Clemens in '04 with a 50, the worst is Tommy Greene in '93 with a 12.
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:42 pm
. . . games where the starter was pulled early before his GS could get down to 25
The Padres' starters in the 1984 World Series have this category clinched. Mark Thurmond's five innings in Game 1 nearly matches the innings total of the next four starters combined (Whitson, Lollar, Show, Thurmond) — 0.2, 1.2, 2.2 and 0.1 innings, respectively. The five game scores were 40, 30, 27, 37, and 29. Not bad enough individually to make Steve's list, but a true ensemble performance.
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:50 pm
What about Bob Welch in the 1981 World Series? He didn't record a single out in the first inning and the Dodgers still won the game 8-7 against the Yankees. He with 0.0 innings and surrendered 3 hits, 1 walks and 2 earned runs. I'd put this one on the list too.
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:51 pm
also, both of the Perry brothers were on the losing end in the games here. Gaylord in the Blass game in '71 and Jim in the Cuellar game in '70.
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Welch in '81 "benefits" from the quick hook in terms of this list. he didn't hang around long enough for his GS to get that low. It starts at 50 and can be added to or subtracted from. With 4 batters, his score never tumbled to the limits of the search. Not the performance the Dodgers were looking for, however...
September 23rd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
Very interesting topic Steve.
You know Pedro's appearance in game 5 has got to be, all things considered, one of the best relief appearances ever
September 23rd, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Pettitte (against Oakland in 2000) had a 6-0 lead before he ever threw a pitch, thanks to Gil Heredia's 1/3-of-an-inning stinker (4 H, 2 BB, 6 ER), which has to be one of the worst 'deciding-game' pitching performances ever.
September 23rd, 2010 at 4:31 pm
Pettitte is the all-time leader in sub-26-GS post-season starts, with six (out of 40 total post-season starts). His team won two of those six starts. Sure an' it makes a fella glad to be a Yankee.
September 23rd, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Kahuna, and he has seven 70+ GS post-season starts. He's lucky to be a Yankee and the Yankees are lucky to have him.
September 23rd, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Also, 24 of his 40 post-season starts are QS, but 22 of the last 32. So two out of three times he has taken the mound in the postseason from 1998 on, counting with the 'Stros, he's gone deep enough without allowing much against the best in the game. Not sure how that compares, but the low GS totals (which I won't deny or defend, because I sure remember them) are only part of the equation.
September 23rd, 2010 at 6:21 pm
If you scroll to the right, you'll see that Joe Hatten ended up with a WPA of -.081, far more than anyone else on the list. His team was up 6-0 before he allowed the opponent to come back and tie it. Not only did he not get a loss, but he was never even in position to get one.
September 23rd, 2010 at 6:24 pm
I'm sorry, he left with a lead! I read the box score wrong. Had he finished the 5th (and there is no reason to believe he could have without letting up more runs, based on his performance to that point), he could have gotten the win despite the stinker! However, the additional .2IP would have pushed him over a gamescore of 25, unless he allowed more runs but not enough to lose the lead.
I'm too lazy to click through the rest of the games, but did anyone else leave with a lead? I only clicked his because he had the "lead" in WPA.
September 23rd, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Not quite making the list is Jack Quinn's start in Game 4 of the 1929 World Series. Quinn gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, and earned a Game Score of 31. His Athletics gave up a couple more runs, and were behind 8-0, when they scored 10 runs in the bottom of the 7th, and won the game, 10-8. 6 of those 10 runs came off the opposing starter, Charlie Root, whose Game Score was only 34.
September 23rd, 2010 at 8:13 pm
The two lowest scores in the losing pitchers list, easy to see because they are the only two single-digit ones, coincidentally (or maybe not coincidentally) were attained by guys who are also in the winners list above. Todd Stottlemyre had the lowest, 8, for St. Louis against Atlanta in the 1996 NLCS. Russ Ortiz had the next lowest, 9, for San Francisco against Anaheim in the 2002 World Series.
September 23rd, 2010 at 9:44 pm
@9
Johnny, love to have your job. If I posted in here while at work I would be toast.(lol)
@19 @20
Tuna and Goof. So which Andy Pettitte shows up in this year's post-season?
@2
BCC, Saberhagen's pitching line jumped off the page at me from Steve's list also. How do you get a start in the final game of a post-season series and be that ineffective? ERA of 45.00??!!?? Must be reputation.
@17
James, your post made me look at the gamelog for Saberhagen's start. Pedro was the unsung hero to be sure. What a performance in an unaccustomed role.
September 24th, 2010 at 2:58 am
Neil, probably the good one, unless he has three starts (odds are pretty good for that, too). One great, one good, one yuck.
But it's baseball; you never know.
September 24th, 2010 at 3:01 am
Kahuna, funny that it turns out the worst (and shortest) starting pitching in a World Series was AGAINST Captain Hook.
September 24th, 2010 at 8:14 am
Kenny Rogers was AWFUL in that 1996 postseason, but the Yankees went (3-0) in his three terrible starts...
September 24th, 2010 at 8:53 am
Big E,
Kenny Rogers 1996 was what jumped to mind immediately. The WS game from the list was the Leyritz/Wohlers game where the Yanks came back from 6-0 and Rogers was long gone by the time that one ended.