K/BB ratios for young pitchers
Posted by Andy on July 17, 2007
This article over at The Hardball Times got me to thinking about K/BB ratios for young pitchers. Bill James pointed out in his Baseball Abstract that there aren't too many consistent statistical indicators for young pitchers, with the possible exception of having a low strikeout rate. Few pitchers who have had low K rates in the first few years last very long in baseball.
Anyway, using the PI Pitching Season Finder, I looked at some related data.
All of the following searches have these restrictions: I looked only at the expansion era (1961-present), and I looked at total performance in a pitcher's first three years, minimum 300 IP.
First, the top 10 pitchers ranked by K/BB ratio:
Cnt Player K/BB IP From To
+----+-----------------+-----+------+----+----+
1 Jim Merritt 4.17 448.1 1965 1967
2 Roy Oswalt 4.00 502 2001 2003
3 Mark Prior 3.90 446.2 2002 2004
4 Steve Woodard 3.81 387.1 1997 1999
5 Rheal Cormier 3.38 399 1991 1993
6 Dwight Gooden 3.35 744.2 1984 1986
7 Bert Blyleven 3.35 729.2 1970 1972
8 Greg Swindell 3.33 406 1986 1988
9 Bret Saberhagen 3.33 549 1984 1986
10 Atlee Hammaker 3.33 386.1 1981 1983
Not a bad list. Steve Woodard didn't do much and Merritt was essentially done in MLB by age 27. The rest of the guys on this list all had great careers, with Gooden, Blyleven, and Saberhagen probably the best (Oswalt's not far behind.) Incidentally, among guys ranked 11 through 20 are names like Clemens, Sutton, Tapani, Felix Hernandez, Ismael Valdez, Blue, and Millwood.
Now, for the same criteria, here are the worst guys in K/BB ratio:
Cnt Player K/BB IP From To
+----+-----------------+-----+------+----+----+
1 Jaime Cocanower 0.72 321 1983 1985
2 Mike Nagy 0.78 363.1 1969 1971
3 Mike LaCoss 0.84 471 1978 1980
4 Bill Krueger 0.85 403 1983 1985
5 Jim Beattie 0.86 391.1 1978 1980
6 Don Schwall 0.87 528.2 1961 1963
7 Dennis Blair 0.88 325 1974 1976
8 Mike Dunne 0.91 433 1987 1989
9 Jamey Wright 0.92 447.1 1996 1998
10 Bill Swift 0.93 410.2 1985 1988
I expected a list full of nobodys, but of course the inclusion of minimum 300 IP means these guys can't be all bad. Jamey Wright has put together a lengthy career, although his K/BB ratio has never improved. The same is true for Mike LaCoss. Bill Krueger stayed around for a while and did improve his ratio. Beattie improved significantly and had several very good years for the Mariners in the 1980s. Most of the rest of these guys were out of the league in to 6 years. The best of this bunch might be Bill Swift, who went on to be one of the best pitchers in baseball for just a short period 1992-1993 (winning 21 games the latter year.)
Now, let's also look at the top 10 and bottom 10 for K's per 9 innings:
Top 10:
Cnt Player SO/9 IP From To
+----+-----------------+-----+------+----+----+
1 Kerry Wood 10.96 478 1998 2001
2 Mark Prior 10.70 446.2 2002 2004
3 Oliver Perez 10.34 412.2 2002 2004
4 Hideo Nomo 10.09 627 1995 1997
5 Scott Kazmir 9.35 364 2004 2006
6 Bobby Witt 9.13 475 1986 1988
7 Dwight Gooden 8.99 744.2 1984 1986
8 Balor Moore 8.58 333.2 1970 1973
9 Felix Hernandez 8.33 366.1 2005 2007
10 Roy Oswalt 8.25 502 2001 2003
The only guy on this list who didn't stick more than 6-7 years is Balor Moore (Jury still out on a few I suppose, especially Hernandez). It's sort of ironic that Wood and Prior are 1-2 given their similar injury histories. I feel bad for those two guys, although they've made their money (Wood $42 million so far and Prior $11 million so far.) Other notable names within the top 20 include Blue, Peavy, Ramon Martinez, Jose DeLeon (a hugely underrated player, in my opinion), Harden, Millwood, Clemens, and Juan Guzman.
And the bottom 10:
Cnt Player SO/9 IP From To
+----+-----------------+-----+------+----+----+
1 Jeff Ballard 2.67 438.1 1987 1989
2 Lary Sorensen 2.71 658.1 1977 1979
3 John Doherty 2.87 402 1992 1994
4 Jerry Augustine 2.98 407.1 1975 1977
5 Steve Kline 3.03 559 1970 1972
6 Mike LaCoss 3.11 471 1978 1980
7 Dave Rozema 3.12 525 1977 1979
8 Ron Romanick 3.20 531 1984 1986
9 Joe Niekro 3.23 568 1967 1969
10 Rick Matula 3.27 355 1979 1981
This is a fairly grim list, especially considering that the Steve Kline mentioned is not the one still active today. Joe Niekro is clearly the class of this bunch.