21 Responses to “More Random Division Series Notes”

1. Johnny Twisto Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 5:28 pm

   I looked at the times when the G1 SP was at least 2.0 WAR better than his opponent, so we could be relatively sure he really did have a better season. No guarantees on my counting correctly, but it looks like the team with the clearly superior G1 pitcher still only won 19 of 36 (53%).

2. The Goof Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 5:33 pm

   Actually, Yanks and Dodgers faced in 1941, 1947, 1949, 1952, 1953, 1955, 1956, 1963, 1977, 1978 and 1981. Hence, four times from 1952-1956, not five. Yanks and Giants played in the Series three years in a row and five times in 17 years. Knowing this off the top of my head makes me a nerd of the first order.

3. The Goof Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 5:33 pm

   Four times from 1950-1956 is what I meant, but same thing, really.

4. The Goof Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 5:36 pm

   Starting Randy Johnson in Game 1? Kiss of death! 0-4

5. Neil Paine Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 5:42 pm

   Good catch, Goof. I can't figure out why my query returned 5 in the 7-year stretch from 50-56, but you're definitely right, they "only" played 4 times there.

6. Neil Paine Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 5:46 pm

   Randy Johnson lost Game 1s when he had 8.8-to-2.7 and 8.2-to-2.0 WAR advantages. Yikes!

7. BSK Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 6:52 pm

   Were there any teams that did not have their best pitcher start game 1? Sometimes this could be the result of reputation, but I'm sure there are other times where teams are using their top pitchers down to the final games and may have to push back their start. How would the list look if we compared best pitcher to best pitcher?

8. TheGoof Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 7:39 pm

   You know the playoffs this year should be great when even That 70s Announcer (Craig Sager) looks sharp.

9. TheGoof Says:
   October 6th, 2010 at 9:23 pm

   I take it back; I saw Sager from afar that first time. My goodness, that's a scary getup.

10. Ryan Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 9:36 pm

    Did you use the play index to get the list of #1 pitchers in LDS match-ups? And if so how?

    It's really interesting.

11. Yanks/Twins – We’ve Seen This Before | WasWatching.com Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 9:47 pm

    [...] stuff via Neil Paine: The 2010 Yankees-Twins ALDS represents just the 8th time in the WS era (1903-2010) that the same [...]

12. Neil Paine Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 9:57 pm

    Re: #10 - I did. You can use the game finder to come up with a list of starting pitchers by round and game # of series:

    http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/e5vt8

    Seasonal WAR was more difficult, and involved converting the names on that list to Retrosheet IDs and cross-referencing a WAR file (not really something you can do readily on the site).

13. John Autin Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 10:33 pm

    Jesse Crain just gave up a 2-run, tie-breaking HR to Teixeira in the 7th.

    That's 4 postseason appearances by Crain, none of them good.
    -- 2004 ALDS game 3: Entered with a man on 2nd and 2 out, allowed a run-scoring single.
    -- 2006 ALDS game 1: Began the 9th trailing 2-1, gave up a HR to the first batter.
    -- 2006 ALDS game 3: Entered in the 7th trailing 4-2, 2 out, 2 on; first batter reached on error, then he walked in a run and allowed a 3-run double.
    -- 2010 ALDS game 1: Began the 7th in a 4-4 tie, got an out, then allowed single-HR-single and was pulled.

14. Ryan Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 10:52 pm

    Thanks Neil!

    I am interested if the same percentage holds over a series first 2 games. We hear so often about how "two good starters" are all you need to win in a short series.

    I'm interested if history supports this oft repeated refrain.

    Someone else mentioned this, but maybe starters like Brian Duensing in last year's LDS, should not count towards the total. Meaning guys who weren't number 1 or 2 starters, but had to start those games because the #1 or #2 guys were not available.

15. John Autin Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 11:21 pm

    It seems ironic that Joe Girardi is now in charge of deciding how to balance Jorge Posada's potent bat against his well-known defensive shortcomings.

    Posada started tonight in ALDS game 1. He has let in a run on a passed ball, but also has hit 2 for 4 with a ribbie and a run. I started thinking about this while noting that Posada was still behind the plate in the bottom of the 7th, after the Yankees took a 6-4 lead; Posada was due to lead off the 8th for NYY.

    Joe Girardi played for the Yankees from 1997-99. He was the #1 catcher in '97, with Posada the backup, but Posada took over the starting role in '98.

    In 5 postseason games in '97, #1 catcher Girardi got all 5 starts.
    In 25 postseason games in '98-99, #1 catcher Posada started just 11 times, while #2 Girardi started 14 times.

    Whether those decisions by Joe Torre were "right" at the time, the fact is that Posada has hit much worse in the postseason than in the regular season -- a .736 OPS in 441 postseason PAs, vs. .856 OPS in the regular season.

    Now Girardi is in charge. Last year, Posada got the lion's share of postseason playing time over Jose Molina -- Posada started 10 of the 15 games, and got 58 PAs to Molina's 7.

    This year, the Yankees' backup catcher is Francisco Cervelli. (Technically, he caught a little more than Posada, but I stick by my ranking.) Cervelli is about equal to Girardi as a hitter: decent BA, no power. But superficially, at least, he's no great improvement over Posada behind the plate, with 55 SB/14% CS, and 37 (WP+PB) in 80 starts and 724 defensive innings; Posada allowed 72 SB/15% CS, with 40 (WP+PB) in 78 starts and 678 defensive innings.

    So maybe that's why Posada is still catching as we go to the bottom of the 9th.

16. John Autin Says:
    October 6th, 2010 at 11:42 pm

    (Upon seeing Joe Mauer ground out to Mariano Rivera: )

    Has there ever been a pitcher who induced so many weak groundouts to the pitcher?
    Rivera has assisted on almost 10% of the non-strikeout outs in his career.
    By comparison, contemporary closer Trevor Hoffman has assisted on less than 4% of his non-strikeout outs.

    Ah, but Rivera's GB/FB ratio is about twice Hoffman's, so maybe Rivera's assists just reflect his general GB tendencies.

    Since the Play Index doesn't cover fielding, nor GB/FB ratios, I'll take just one more shot with a pitcher I know to have a very high GB/FB ratio, even though he's not a reliever: Brandon Webb.

    Webb has a much higher GB/FB ratio than Rivera, 1.82 to 1.03.
    Still, Webb has assisted on a lower percentage of his non-strikeout outs, 9.3% to 9.7%.

    Incredibly unscientific as that "study" was, I now feel more certain of my initial assumption.

    P.S. Does anyone know of an efficient way to check this kind of thing?

17. Larry R. Says:
    October 7th, 2010 at 8:22 am

    And this, my friends, is why they play the games. Take all the stats on any given day and throw them out the window. Who's going to win a ballgame, any ballgame...flip a coin.

18. Johnny Twisto Says:
    October 7th, 2010 at 9:50 am

    John, Molina only got those starts last season because the team had decided to make him Burnett's personal catcher about halfway through the season. There was some controversy about whether that would continue in the postseason. I'd bet that Posada started every postseason game from 2000 to 2008, unless he was hurt. I am not sure what the plans are this year but I would not be surprised if Posada starts all the games at catcher. Cervelli is superior defensively, but that isn't difficult. From what I've seen, I think a lot of the problems in throwing out basestealers this year is on the pitchers. Posada's one slightly positive defensive skill throughout his career has been his arm -- when not recovering from a couple shoulder surgeries, he has generally thrown pretty well with a good release. He may not be throwing as well now as he once did but the poor % is not all his fault.

19. Keeping Score: Parallel Paths of Halladay and Lee - NYTimes.com Says:
    October 7th, 2010 at 11:37 am

    [...] Game 1 of the Yankees-Twins division series marked the fourth time the two teams have faced each other in the last eight postseasons, only the eighth such instance in the World Series era. This decade alone, they joined the Red Sox-Angels (four matchups from 2004 to 2009) and Braves-Astros (five matchups from 1997 to 2005). You can read about the other familiar playoff matchups at the Baseball-Reference.com blog. [...]

20. Mike Says:
    October 7th, 2010 at 11:54 am

    This is just a list of who started game 1, not the team leader in WAR for pitchers. If a team had to clinch at the end of the regular season, like Milwaukee in 2008, they used their ace (Sabathia, 4.8 WAR in 130 IP for Mil) to clinch so he didnt start game 1 of the playoffs. Also Yovanni Gallardo accumulated his 1.1 WAR in only 24 IP that season.

21. Great 1-2-3 Rotation Combos In a Best-of-7 Series » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive Says:
    October 13th, 2010 at 7:52 am

    [...] week I posted about how often the team with the best Game 1 starter by WAR wins the Division Series (only 55%, as [...]