Granderson still raking
Posted by Andy on June 15, 2011
Curtis Granderson since last Aug 14:
111 games 468 plate appearances .271 / .353 / .597 82 runs scored 16 doubles 3 triples 35 homers 84 RBI
Over 162 games, that projects to 52 HR, 123 RBI, and 120 runs scored.
June 15th, 2011 at 11:09 am
I don't really buy it. Sure, he's on fire and doing yard work, but 71 hits in 65 games means he either collects a couple of hits or goes 0-for. 16 doubles in 111 games is pretty pathetic for a starting player collecting hype. He's driving in runs and scoring runs, as well, but, really, based on those numbers, his OBP should be higher and his SLG% just goes to show you that he's swinging for the fences every single at bat. I wouldn't want that kind of mindset on my squad.
June 15th, 2011 at 11:32 am
@1 Robert,
I don't get your criticism.
He has 155 total bases which is second in the AL and Third in Major League baseball. He's 1st in the AL in HR, He's 2nd in 3b, He's 1st in Runs scored, He's 1st in Extra base hits, 3rd in RBi, 5th in Runs Created, 7th in OPS+ and he's 3rd in the AL in Slugging Percentage.
The only change I would make would be to play Granderson in LF and Gardner in CF. Granderson is an average fielding CF at this point in his career and Gardner is the far superior defensive player.
The Granderson trade was an absolute steal for the Yankees. I still don't understand why the Tigers traded him. He was under contract and it wasn't like he was making a ton of money. He made about $5 million last year and he's only making around 8 million this year and he was under contract until 2012 with a club option for 2013.
June 15th, 2011 at 11:39 am
We went from 1965 until 1990 with only a single 50-HR season. If he can keep that up, I don't care much about the doubles.
June 15th, 2011 at 11:54 am
He must be walking alot from the difference in BA and OBP. That seems to suggest he's not swinging for the fences every time up.
So who's the AL MVP gonna be? Bautista or Granderson?
June 15th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
@4
Gonzalez
June 15th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
The Tigers traded him because they saw a declining trend in performance, especially againgst lefties. His OPS from 2007 - 2009 went .913/.858/.780. Kudos to him for righting the ship.
June 15th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
@1/ Robert Colianni Says: "...16 doubles in 111 games is pretty pathetic for a starting player collecting hype..."
He wasn't exactly cranking out the doubles the last two years (2009/2010), either. If you project his 11 doubles this year, you get 27/28 per full year, the same as his actual career rate. It doesn't really matter how he puts the runs up on the scoreboard, as long as he keeps doing it.
June 15th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
CG has never been a big doubles hitter, fyi. And he's always had a high K rate. What I find encouraging is that Granderson's BAbip so far this year is a seemingly sustainable .298 (the AL average this year is .288). That's up from .277 in 2010 but below the .300+ rates he posted in 2005-08. Rather than benefiting from an uptick in good luck, he appears to be hitting the ball with more authority now (which should turn 3some fly outs into HRs). You can see his isolated power is up notably this season. I'm not expecting a 50-HR season from him, but I see no reason why he should fall off a cliff. The run he's had since August feels less like a fluke and more like the same Curtis Granderson but improved.
June 15th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
#6 (Jeff H) is absolutely right. 2007 was his hallmark 4x20 season, but he'd struggled vs. lefties, below .200 his last season in Det.
It wasn't just about dumping Granderson; they were trying to buy some years of youth in exchanging Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer in the same deal, plus they picked up a much needed lefty in Phil Coke, and speculatively decided that Austin Jackson was ready for the big leagues, and potentially the true leadoff hitter they seemed to be desiring. All of that happened in the same deal. That and their allowing Placido Polanco to bolt for Philly as a free agent (a horrible mistake) during a couple of months of austerity-mindedness.
Of course then, they realized they lacked a #2 hitter, so later in the offseason they re-opened the purse strings and signed Johnny Damon, who was quite good at getting on base but hit a fraction of the homers he did in Yankee Stadium, and did not do well in RISP situations.
June 15th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
Also if you turn Grandy's 3 triples into 3 doubles (take away his speed and turn his triples into doubles) that makes a little difference.
Robert's point in #1 has some validity, though, I think. No doubt Granderson is driving the ball very well this year. Most of those long drives that weren't caught have gone over the fence. If he loses a bit of that power, we'll probably see fewer homers and more doubles. His SLG would come down some in that case, and of course his productivity would fall some too--but probably just down to a level we'd call "excellent" instead of what it is now--nearly "unbelievable".
June 15th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
@5, if this keeps up, I'd take Granderson above Gonzalez based on position. Power at 1B is there, be in Gonzalez, Teixeira, Cabrera. A 45-HR hitting CFer? He's the man.
June 15th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
The GRANDY-MAN CAN!!! Although I usually root against the Yankees, it is hard to root against this guy. I actually think his numbers get overshadowed by the other guys wearing the pinstripes. And although I think Yankee stadium helps his power (can't check his splits...computer is 10+ years old), his ability to get his hands through the zone to drive almost any pitch is awesome to watch.
As for the MVP race, I will wait to see how each team finishes up (I'm not trying to start a debate but I don't believe that team success should factor in MVP votes).
June 15th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
His home-road splits are nearly identical.
Home: .289 / .348 / .620
Road: .273 / .360 / .609
Home: 12 HR in 160 PAs (one every 13.3 PAs)
Road: 9 HR in 125 PAs (one every 13.8 PAs)
June 15th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Granderson actually has 5 triples this year to go with his 11 doubles. As Andy said above, his doubles total is only low because he's stretching out some potential doubles into triples. His total of 16 XBH that haven't left the park put him on pace for around 40 such XBH for the year. That's absolutely nothing to complain about - for a normal player, those 40 hits would yield something like 35 doubles and 5 triples, but for Granderson, we might see something like 28 doubles and 12 triples. Who can complain about that?
June 15th, 2011 at 3:37 pm
Also worth noting are the changes in his batted ball profile which are key to his success. According to Fangraphs data, only 30.3% of Granderson's batted balls have been on the ground whereas 50.5% have been in the air, vs. career averages of 35.4% and 44.2%. His line drive rate (19.1%) isn't far off from his career rate of 20.5%. That difference in ground balls and fly balls is huge, though, and along with the jump in his HR/FB rate from 14.5% last year to 22.1% this year, is the reason he's hitting so many home runs. Even if his home run rate regresses, if he can sustain these changes in his ground ball and fly ball rates along with his vast improvement against lefties, we are simply looking at a much better player. He's already nearly matched his 2010 production in both rWAR and fWAR.
June 15th, 2011 at 4:14 pm
How much has this to do with the short porch in Yankee Stadium? I'd like to hear from someone who watches Yankee games regularly. Personally I think he, like Bautista, has found his "swing".
June 15th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Ok, I admit some bias here but Yankee stadium's dimensions are over-hyped. It's actually fairly deep to right-center. The rightmost few feet are short but it gets deeper pretty quickly. I'd also point to the home vs road split for him. He showed good power in the series in Arlington and Toronto and although he's only got 1 so far, I think he's pretty happy power wise in Fenway's right field.
Granderson's power is just two factors to me:
1) He's making much better contact overall (as is well discussed in this thread)
2) He's not in Comerica Park anymore.
The guy hit 30 home runs in 09 for Detroit lets not forget. He's had good power throughout his career. When he makes contact more often, he will hit more home runs. Blaming Yankee Stadium's right field corner is absurd.
June 15th, 2011 at 4:37 pm
With 35 HR and 16 doubles Granderson's doubles total is 0.457 of his HR total. There have been 597 occasions when a player hit 35 HR or more in a season. Of them 56, or 9.34% of them, had a doubles to HR ratio of less 0.457.
There have been 42 occasions when a player hit 50 or more HR in a season and of them 16, or 38.1%, had a ratio of less than 0.457.
Granderson's 111 game totals when projected to 162 games would be 51 HR, so his doubles to HR ratio isn't that far below the average.
June 15th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Part of why his doubles are low is because he turns some of them into triples.
June 15th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Nitpick: Perhaps the search should really be from August 12. Granderson didn't start on the 10th and 11th while working on his swing overhaul. He was back in the lineup 8/12, went 2-3 with a double, and hasn't looked back.
***
How much has this to do with the short porch in Yankee Stadium?
According to hittracker, 8 of Granderson's HR this season would have been out in all 30 parks, 16 of them would have been out in at least 20 parks, and 3 (all in YS) would have been out in fewer than 10 parks.
For comparison, 12 of Bautista's would be out in all 30 parks, 16 in at least 20, and none in fewer than 10.
On the other hand, Granderson has six "no-doubt" HR (just one fewer than Bautista, who has the most), and only three "just enough" HR, while Bautista has the most with eight.
I think the park *should* benefit him, but it hasn't necessarily done so yet. He's really driving the ball well, whether it's over the fence or not, and I don't really remember him dropping too many into that relatively shallow area in right-center.
***
Yankee stadium's dimensions are over-hyped. It's actually fairly deep to right-center. The rightmost few feet are short but it gets deeper pretty quickly.
I don't think that's right. The old Stadium was like that. The new RF wall runs pretty much straight out from the corner at a 90-degree angle. I think that area in right-center is shallower than most parks, only around 360.
June 15th, 2011 at 6:14 pm
@1:
Lots of guys swing for the fences every at-bat. Very few can produce a .597 SLG%. If I were a major league manager and had a player capable of that kind of power, I'd ORDER him to swing for the fences every time.
It reminds me of something the NFL head coach Paul Brown said about his star running back, Jim Brown: "When you have a big gun, you fire it as often as you can." At least, I remember that quote as being from Paul Brown. Whatever: the point still stands.
June 15th, 2011 at 6:43 pm
"but 71 hits in 65 games means he either collects a couple of hits or goes 0-for"
I'm not sure what this means. Is it a criticism? Seventy-one hits in 65 games is a perfectly acceptable number. Add to that great power and you have an exceptional player.
June 15th, 2011 at 6:46 pm
@1...Harmon Killebrew admitted to swinging for the fences every AB of his career and even he only exceeded .597 SLG% once. Would he not have a place on your club?
June 15th, 2011 at 9:41 pm
One thing that surprised me is seeing he only hit .160 vs lefties in 2007. His stats vs. LHP have been inconsistent, but 2011 is easily his best so far at .278, and esp. as concerns SLG where he is currently at .708. To be sure, he's a force when it comes to XBH - always has been. I wouldn't be picky as to what kind they are if he's getting them!
June 15th, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Excellent, intelligent discussion all.
@1
Robert, how can you you doubt Curtis Granderson is for real?
An interesting, unrelated point is that, as of this writing, the Yankees have 42 HR from their top two hitters, Granderson and Teixeira. No other ML team is close to that.
Bautista/Lind have only 34 HR, the closest two-player combo to the Yankees one-two punch. (Actually who is one and two for the Gotham pin-stripes?)
June 15th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Fielder and Braun might be third with 33, and i like their chances in that race.
Going the other way, the Mariners as a team have 44.
June 16th, 2011 at 9:37 am
@25
Lind missed 3 weeks in May and he was raking both before and after. Bautista missed at least 10 games.
To the point at hand, I can't believe anyone would not consider Granderson a top notch hitter and dependable fielder
June 16th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
For those that haven't seen Granderson, while he is still a guy that has holes in his swing and can be gotten out, he is absolutely a bonafide slugger. When he gets a good swing on it he hits rockets. He has so many ABs where he hits it nice and hard that end up being right at someone (though I am not trying to say he has been unlucky at all).
Another thing to keep in mind is that while he absolutely has the power to hit the ball out of any part of any park, he is a pull hitter, he absolutely likes to get out in front of the ball as part of his hitting style (I read that in some article about someone else talking about hitting styles and he specifically said Granderson wants to get ahead of the ball and pull it), and with the removal of all the movement in his swing, and the decreasing frequency of bailing out on lefties on pitches away, he is having a lot of success trying to do what he wants to do (pull the ball and hit it hard).