Fewest decisions in 30 game starts
Posted by Andy on March 10, 2009
Here are the fewest total decisions a pitcher received in a season with at least 30 starts since 1901:
Cnt Player **Dec** GS Year Age Tm Lg G CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str +----+-----------------+-------+---+----+---+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+----+ 1 Odalis Perez 13 31 2004 27 LAD NL 31 0 0 0 7 6 .538 0 196.1 180 76 71 44 128 3.25 126 26 787 721 35 5 4 3 16 3 25 14 5 2 2 2 .250 .294 .420 .714 90 2819 1833 2 Kenny Rogers 14 31 1999 34 TOT ML 31 5 1 0 10 4 .714 0 195.1 206 101 91 69 126 4.19 108 16 845 749 36 1 1 13 7 7 24 6 8 9 1 4 .275 .344 .390 .734 92 3 Elmer Dessens 15 30 2002 31 CIN NL 30 0 0 0 7 8 .467 0 178 173 70 60 49 93 3.03 142 24 737 673 33 1 8 7 7 1 19 8 8 1 1 3 .257 .314 .416 .730 92 2690 1667 4 Dave Mlicki 15 30 1998 30 TOT NL 30 3 1 0 8 7 .533 0 181.1 188 102 92 63 117 4.57 89 23 789 704 43 3 5 7 8 7 10 10 8 0 0 10 .267 .330 .435 .765 108 5 Joey Hamilton 15 30 1995 24 SDP NL 31 2 2 1 6 9 .400 0 204.1 189 89 70 56 123 3.08 132 17 850 767 22 5 5 11 12 4 22 8 8 3 0 2 .246 .305 .355 .660 80 6 Matt Chico 16 31 2007 24 WSN NL 31 0 0 0 7 9 .438 0 167 183 96 86 74 94 4.63 91 26 747 652 38 4 3 5 6 10 12 9 6 2 0 7 .281 .354 .471 .825 122 2819 1740 7 Chris Young 16 31 2006 27 SDP NL 31 0 0 0 11 5 .688 0 179.1 134 72 69 69 164 3.46 117 28 735 649 20 5 4 6 8 3 8 41 4 1 1 6 .206 .287 .382 .669 82 3024 1923 8 John Patterson 16 31 2005 27 WSN NL 31 2 1 0 9 7 .563 0 198.1 172 71 69 65 185 3.13 130 19 817 738 33 1 11 5 5 4 8 26 11 2 1 9 .233 .298 .358 .656 80 3174 2047 9 Elmer Dessens 16 30 2003 32 ARI NL 34 0 0 1 8 8 .500 0 175.2 212 107 99 57 113 5.07 92 22 781 708 43 2 6 4 9 3 18 7 4 0 2 3 .299 .354 .459 .813 109 2903 1783 10 Rick Reed 16 30 2000 35 NYM NL 30 0 0 0 11 5 .688 0 184 192 90 84 34 121 4.11 108 28 768 721 31 5 3 5 3 5 17 9 4 0 1 2 .266 .302 .440 .742 93 2756 1836 11 Scott Kamieniecki 16 30 1997 33 BAL AL 30 0 0 0 10 6 .625 0 179.1 179 83 80 67 109 4.01 109 20 764 686 38 3 2 4 1 6 15 25 4 6 0 5 .261 .328 .413 .741 95 12 Omar Olivares 16 31 1997 29 TOT AL 32 3 2 0 6 10 .375 0 177.1 191 109 98 81 103 4.97 91 18 794 691 42 3 4 13 2 7 22 3 4 1 0 5 .276 .360 .424 .784 106 13 Doug Drabek 16 30 1996 33 HOU NL 30 1 0 0 7 9 .438 0 175.1 208 102 89 60 137 4.57 85 21 786 699 35 6 5 7 12 8 16 19 7 0 0 9 .298 .355 .455 .810 125 14 Oil Can Boyd 16 31 1990 30 MON NL 31 3 3 0 10 6 .625 0 190.2 164 64 62 52 113 2.93 125 19 774 702 39 2 10 3 12 4 9 25 6 0 3 3 .234 .288 .376 .664 90 15 Jay Tibbs 16 31 1986 24 MON NL 35 3 2 2 7 9 .438 0 190.1 181 96 84 70 117 3.97 94 12 797 706 36 6 3 3 13 4 18 11 13 2 2 7 .256 .324 .375 .699 98 16 Wayne Twitchell 16 30 1977 29 TOT NL 34 2 0 3 6 10 .375 0 184.2 166 98 88 74 130 4.29 90 21 776 678 29 7 4 5 13 5 8 15 11 0 0 7 .245 .322 .401 .723 98
It's interesting to consider why these guys got so few decisions. I suspect it varies from case to case. In general, a pitcher fails to get a decision when he either leaves the game with a lead and his bullpen blows it, or he leaves the game with a deficit and his offense comes back and wins. So, if you look at individual guys on that list, you'll probably find some from teams with bad bullpens as well as some on very good offensive teams.
One thing to notice, though, is that if you read down the column of ERA+, these were mostly average pitchers. Only 7 of the 16 have ERA+ values below 100, and only 2 are below 90. Similarly, only 5 guys are above 120, and only 3 above 130. Of course, it's to be expected that a guy allowed to make 30 starts in a season must be pretty decent--in other words, if his ERA+ had been 70, he probably would have been pulled from the rotation before making 30 starts. However, my larger point is that these guys probably pitched in relatively low-scoring games since their ERAs were fairly good. It's much easier for a bullpen to blow a 1-run lead, or for your own team to come back from a 1-run deficit, than it is to lose or erase a 4-run differential. So I think that's why the guys on the list with the fewest decisions tend to be pretty decent pitchers.
I calculated a weighted average ERA+ of these guys and it's 108.6. We'll compare that to anotehr group of players tomorrow.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:00 am
It was excruciating to watch Patterson's great season. Felt so bad for the guy who threw great game after game only to have his leads lost. Even worse, his career may be over.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Another thing I noticed is that you tend not to be a work horse. Only 1 of these guys (Joey Hamilton) had 200 innings pitched, and none had more than 205. Makes sense as if you leave the gamein the 6th, there are more innings for your bullpen to either give up or blow a lead. Also, makes sense since now adays babies, excuse me, pitchers pitch fewer innings that all of these seasons are post-1976 and all but two are post 1994.
March 10th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
It would be interesting to have another column for the team's W-L record in the games the pitcher started. That might tell us whether it's the bullpen blowing leads or the offense saving the day.
March 10th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Bert Blyleven had a notable season when he went just 12-5 in 37 starts for the 1979 world champion Pirates. 17 decisions so he's just off this list, but he made a lot more starts and IP than anyone on it.
March 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Actually, that would be 20 no-decisions. Has anyone had more? Can PI check that? .... It doesn't appear that you can directly search for no-decisions, but in doing a few searches for fewest decisions with at least X starts, I'm pretty sure Blyleven has the record.
March 10th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Johnny-
You can use the game finder for seasons since 1956. Blyleven does lead.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/ptp2
March 10th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
I think Mr. Baseballcard hit upon the key characteristic – these guys may be decent pitchers, but they aren't workhorses. The fewer innings you pitch per start, the more chances you leave for the lead to change; not to mention that when you don't go at least 5 innings as a starter, you automatically get no decision, no matter what the score. I ran their IP/GS (subtracting the 21 innings they pitched in 14 relief appearances). Over half the list (9 of the 16) averaged less than 6 innings per start for the season in question, and only two – Hamilton (6.76 IP/GS) and Patterson (6.40) – had more than 6 1/3 innings per start. None averaged more than 7 innings per start. As a group, the average was 6.02 IP/GS.
With the modern trend of increased reliance on the bullpen in the middle innings, I would not be surprised to see Blyleven’s 20 NDs challenged or even equaled or broken in the near future - even with just 30-34 starts in a season!
March 11th, 2009 at 1:50 am
Of course the average start in 2008 was only 5.81 innings. For those who managed 30+ starts, I'm sure it was higher. Still I'm not so sure the record will be broken soon. There would have to be a major rethinking in how starting pitchers are used, especially in relation to the rest of the staff. That may well happen, as pitcher usage has evolved constantly since the beginning of time. But right now, teams still want to get innings out of their starters (even if those innings are relatively puny compared to yesteryear). As long starters need 5 IP for a win and people are beholden to that stat, it's hard to see starter innings dropping much further.
March 11th, 2009 at 8:20 am
-Gerry: Select a particular pitcher and then "game log" their season in question. At the bottom, the site lists 'team record in player's starts' for that season.