30 Responses to “A rare tough loss for Sabathia in pinstripes”

1. Johnny Twisto Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 12:56 am

   CC is rarely unhittable, but instead, is good almost every time out. For a team with a good, consistent offense, that's a better pattern than a pitcher who is brilliant one day, but so-so the next.

   Is it? I feel like it's been shown that a consistent offense is better than an inconsistent one. E.g., teams have better winning % when scoring 5 runs in a game than when scoring 2 runs in half the games and 8 runs in the other half. So conversely, that would mean that an inconsistent pitcher with an ERA of X.00 is more valuable than the pitcher who gives up X runs every single game. (Even if the former is more frustrating to watch.)

   But if the pitcher in question's offense is consistently good, does that change the results? I'm not sure. And the Yankee offense *is* good, but is it consistently so? I'm really not sure.

2. Zachary Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 1:42 am

   Consistency will _always_ be better than inconsistency if the regular features are positive. There's no logical way for that not to be so. I may win more if I score 5 runs every game than if I alternate scoring 2 and 8, but I strongly suspect I'd win more scoring 6 and 2 than I would scoring 4.

3. Doug Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 2:04 am

   I'm guessing John was surprised by Scott Baker making the list, and being undefeated in his starts. I know I'm surprised by that.

   I'm also surprised by A.J. Burnett's 28 starts making this grade. It's barely half of King Felix's total, and only a third of his 86 starts since 2009. But, considering Burnett has a 97 ERA+ with a 1.4 WHIP since then, it's more than I would have guessed. I've read a lot about A.J. having been a bust for the Yanks (and the handful of times I've seen him pitch, he hasn't impressed). Does this surprise anyone else who may have seen more of Burnett?

4. topper009 Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 2:07 am

   Zach Greinke just took a similar loss tonight, 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 HR, 0 BB, 7 K, L

   The Brewers were also shutout for the 10th time on the road this season, but have not been shutout at home once all year, are they approaching record territory in this department? (sorry getting too late for me to check now) Their road struggles are very odd and if they could just snap out of it and play a little better on the road they would run away with the division.

5. -mark Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 2:42 am

   I think that CJ Wilson has the hard luck story of the night 8IP, 2H, 1ER, 1BB, 8K on 112-73 pitch count.

   I wonder how often a game score of 83 or higher has lost? Both CC and Zack have score in the mid-60s by comparison.

6. Andy Patton Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 3:25 am

   Poor Doug Fister can't catch a break. he lost a game this year by walking Cameron Maybin on 3 pitches, who then scored the only earned run of the game. Rough

7. John Q Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 8:38 am

   @Andy

   Fister is having another tough year in the run support department. He's only averaging 2.3 runs per game which is last, (134/134) among qualifying starting pitchers in the majors this year. He's been one of the top 20 pitchers in the A.L. this year and deserves far better than a 3-11 record. Again, he's a great example of the problems & weaknesses of judging a pitcher's performance by W-L record.

8. Neil L. Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 9:59 am

   No malice meant toward CC, but last night he got to see how the other half lives. His run support this year is 6.38 RPG, last year it was 5.89. The Yankees haven't scuffled very often offensively behind him.

   Jered Weaver, Jamie Shields or Doug Fister would die for that kind of run support. So a bit of poetic baseball justice in last night's result.

9. Neil L. Says:
   July 22nd, 2011 at 10:13 am

   Wow, mulling over JA's second list........ I realize it is only since 2009 and it doesn't take into account longevity, but the top 15 or so pitchers gives an interesting who's who of current effectiveness.

   In anyone's opinion, most underrated pitcher in the top 15 on the second list, using "traditional" stats and amount of media attention? I say Gio Gonzalez.

10. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 10:35 am

    What a strong array of comments!

    BTW, Gio Gonzalez was the undefeated guy on the 2nd list that most surprised me, since Oakland has ranked 9th, 11th and 13th in AL R/G since 2009.

11. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 10:39 am

    Re: "see how the other half lives" -- Yes, you could say that Shields exacted a bit of cosmic revenge for this game on July 10, in which he lost to CC 1-0 on an unearned run, while both pitchers went the distance on 4 hits and 1 walk.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201107100.shtml

12. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 10:47 am

    @1, JT -- That's a very interesting point, which I can't seem to process to a clear conclusion.

    When I view it as you phrased it -- as the converse of the "consistent offense is better" theorem -- your point makes perfect sense. Yet, my initial position still seems intuitively obvious to me.

    Unfortunately, I don't have enough grounding in probability to work it through. My hunch is that the question will turn on just how consistent the Yankee offense is.

13. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 10:56 am

    Re: consistency of Yankee offense --
    I don't have the chops to do a proper study, but here are what I'd guess are some of the relevant raw data:

    -- This season, the Yanks have scored at least 3 runs in 78 of 96 games, tops in the AL. This is no surprise, since they're #2 in AL R/G at 5.06. But note that Boston, #1 in R/G at 5.41, has scored 3+ in 74 of 96 games. So it seems safe to say that, at least in this narrow context, the Yankee offense has been more consistent than Boston's.

    -- Raising the bar to 4+ runs, NYY has done that in 65 of 96 games, 2nd to Boston's 67. At 5+ runs, the Yanks lead with 51 games; Boston is one of 3 teams with 48.

    -- The Yanks have been held to 1 run or less just 11 times, tied for the fewest (with Baltimore?!?). Boston has 15 such games.

    For a quick-and-dirty study, I'm satisfied that the Yankee offense, at least this year, has been pretty darn consistent, and definitely more consistent than Boston's.

14. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 11:36 am

    Winning Percentages for AL Teams When Scoring X Runs, 2009-2011:

    0: .000
    1: .085
    2: .215
    3: .342
    4: .537
    5: .636
    6: .741
    7: .802
    8: .887
    9: .886
    10: .918
    11+: .972

    A couple observations. I was struck by the big jump in win expectancy when going from 3 runs to 4. Also, look how 9 runs is slightly lower than 8. Shows that even 2.5 years of games isn't a big enough sample. Still, I hope this data is sufficient for a quick & dirty study.

    Based on the above, I would say that the more runs a team scores, the more important it is to be consistent, and the fewer runs they score, the better it is to be inconsistent. Scoring 5 runs in every game yields a higher winning % than splitting between 0 and 10, or 1 and 9, or 2 and 8. But the winning % when scoring 3 runs in every game is worse than splitting between 0 and 6, or 1 and 5, or 2 and 4.

    So conversely, for a good pitcher like CC, it is better to be consistent and allow 3 runs every game. But for a bad pitcher, it is better to be inconsistent than to allow 5 runs every game.

    I know this has been studied before. If anyone can find a good link, or wants to run with this data, please do.

15. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    @14, JT -- Thanks for the W% table. I do like your conclusions, even if I would not necessarily derive them myself from the W% table.

    I think it's dicey drawing win-expectancy conclusions from a 3-year period in which the scoring average has declined by 11%, from 4.82 to 4.29 R/G. My uneducated hunch is that the value of that 4th run is MUCH greater in this year's environment than it was in 2009.

16. Kahuna Tuna Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 12:36 pm

    The Brewers were also shutout for the 10th time on the road this season, but have not been shutout at home once all year, are they approaching record territory in this department?

    In fact they are now in record territory with that 10th road shutout. No other team has been shut out more than nine times on the road in a single season while not getting shut out even once at home. The three teams that reached nine-and-zero are the 1937 Indians, the 1947 Pirates, and the 2009 Rockies.

    In terms of how many more times they've been shut out on the road than at home, the 2011 Brewers are approaching the post-1900 record of 13, set by the 1910 Doves (Braves) (19 road/6 home) and tied by the 1978 White Sox (15 road/2 home).

17. Neil L. Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 12:50 pm

    @1
    So, JT, is AJ Burnett a better example of an inconsistent pitcher compared to Sabathia? It seems like he has up and down starts.

    Doug, in post #3, drew attention to the enigma that is Burnett in terms of fan/media criticism compared actual to his actual pitching quality.

    Either way, JT and JA, very interesting discussion in your threads. JT, JA is definitely correct, I believe, in saying that the WP% as a function of runs scored is sensitive to overall run-scoring.

18. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 12:58 pm

    I think it's dicey drawing win-expectancy conclusions from a 3-year period in which the scoring average has declined by 11%, from 4.82 to 4.29 R/G.

    I thought about this. Wasn't sure if it would balance out, since all teams are in the same boat, more or less.

19. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    Well Neil, Burnett is just a worse pitcher than Sabathia. The interesting comparison to me would be someone with a similar ERA as Burnett, but who is more consistent (or more inconsistent) on a game-by-game basis. How would that affect their likelihood to win games?

20. Neil L. Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 1:12 pm

    To highlight the decline in run-scoring, the winning percentage this year when scoring only one run is 19/147 = 0.129 a big jump from the three year average.

    In 2011, when teams score four runs they have won 108 out of 191 games for a 0.565 %. In 2009, 144 wins out of 284 games, a .507 winning percentage.

21. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 2:35 pm

    Neil re: A.J. Burnett -- I'm the wrong person to ask about A.J., since my impression is that he's simply awful every time out. Obviously, I have an irrational bias....

22. Neil L. Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 3:00 pm

    JA, it is not my intent to ignite a Burnett debate/war, but if he so ineffective why does he have 28 "ultra" quality starts in the last three years? (My words, what would you call 6+ IP and <3 runs allowed?)

    And by taking four losses in the process, his bottom W-L line has absorbed a bit of a hit due to poor bullpen or lack of run support.

    I think you are right that a set of "irrational" goggles are worn by local fans when watching AJ. My qualifications are a couple of years observing him in my local market.

    It seems like such more is expected than is delivered. Yet it should not detract from what is delivered. AJ has been haunted by these expectations ever since he was a rookie.

23. John Autin Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 3:19 pm

    Neil -- Don't get me started on A.J.!
    I have a whole blog post on the shelf, just waiting for the right provocation....

24. Neil L. Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 4:54 pm

    JA, I plead innocence! I am not trying to be controversial and I will assume, in advance, that your conclusions are correct since they are usually well-supported.

    But what would it take for you to pull the trigger on theA.J. Burnett blog?

25. Doug Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 6:08 pm

    Re: A.J.

    Curious tidbit from A.J.'s splits page.

    AJ's best performance against an AL opponent: against the Yankees when he was with the Blue Jays (65 tOPS+)

    AJ's worst performance against an AL opponent: against the Blue Jays in his current stint with the Yankees (143 tOPS+)

    Maybe that's why A.J.'s been such a bust in pinstripes.

    Incidentally, John, Burnett can't have been bad every time you've seen him, as A.J. has a 67 tOPS+ against the Mets.

26. BSK Says:
    July 22nd, 2011 at 7:17 pm

    Is there some sort of consistency stat we can come up? I'm not a stats wiz, but maybe figuring out a guy's individual game variance from his average game score? Or something?

27. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 1:47 am

    BSK, since you've been MIA for a few, I think you have to make it up to the community. I assign you the duty of calculating game score variance for several top pitchers. (And don't give us any BS about pre-marital responsibilities.)

28. John Autin Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 2:17 am

    @25, Doug, re: A.J. -- I thought it was clear that I was exaggerating for effect, but anyway....

    Burnett's only faced the Mets 3 times as a Yankee, once in the last 2 years. He got a win this year in a bare-minimum QS (3 runs in 6.1 IP, 6 hits, 3 walks, 4 Ks). I wasn't dazzled.

    I'm aware that he had 2 scoreless games against them in June 2009. That seems a long time ago, in A.J. years.

29. Doug Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 2:41 am

    Just having some fun, John. 🙂

    I couldn't resist when I saw the Mets and Yankees right there together as two of the teams AJ has had the most success against. (AJ's had the most success of all opponents against the Giants).

30. John Autin Says:
    July 23rd, 2011 at 11:05 am

    @29 -- Me, too, Doug. 🙂

    It would be hypocritical of me to focus attention on the fact that A.J.'s career success against the Mets includes 5 wins in 19 starts -- his lowest rate of W per GS of any of the 14 teams that he's faced at least 9 times.

    So, of course, I won't do that. 🙂