Pitchers 29 Or Younger Since 1996 With 225+ IP In A Season
Posted by Steve Lombardi on September 12, 2011
Since 1996, how many pitchers, age 29 or younger, have thrown 225+ innings in a season?
Here is the list -
.
Welcome to the club, James Shields.
September 12th, 2011 at 11:53 am
This fails to recognize the fact that Livan Hernandez was 36 years old when he was born.
September 12th, 2011 at 11:57 am
This is quite interesting. I took the set where they only had 1 season and it was prior to 2000. I wrote down their ages when they first threw 200, how many times they did it and their age when they last played in the majors. Millwood is the only one who played this year. If I had a list like this from the 70s and wrote down the age when they first pitched 200 and when they retired, there would be a strong correlation between young pitchers and early retirement. It's not evident in this small data set, but I can't be sure that it's dramaticlly changed overall. I'm sure all of us are savvy enough to think of reasons, so I won't take the time to do it. I'm glad to see that times may have changed for the younger pitchers. Nice data set.
September 12th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
@1:
" Mi amigo birth certificates in Cuba are always written with Sharpies."
September 12th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
Sharpies??? Try pencil!
September 12th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Felix needs just 8 more innings to get to 225, which will be his 3rd year in a row and he's only 25. If he continues to be healthy and puts up 225 until he's 29, he would have 7 such seasons including his age 29 season.
He's yet to have any serious injuries at all, so it will be interesting to follow his career. The Mariners have done a great job at slowly increasing his innings from year to year (including minors). He has a really easy and simple windup as well. I really, REALLY hope he is able to have a long healthy career, but only time will tell.
Just looking at the pitchers who pitched more than one of these season before 29, only a handful have pitched well after 33 so far. Most of the other guys have had missed some significant time from injuries, like Santana, Webb, and Mulder. Verdict is still out on Sabathia, Buehrle, Oswalt, and Haren, who are all older than 29 now. Then there are the pitchers who have just become ineffective like Zito, Harang, Lima, and Hentgen.
And, Roy Halladay is a freak, just like Randy Johnson was. He's a bit of a late bloomer and is probably more likely to have a longer career because of it.
September 12th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Are there 17 Cy Youngs amungem?
September 12th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
@ 5
Don't forget, King Felix was due to pitch in his team's last game, last year. It was his turn is the rotation, but with everything wrapped up and nothing to gain and everything to loose, they skipped him. Smart move I think, considering that he having topped his career high in IP two years in a row. So he would of not only surpassed 250 IP, but would have possibly lowered his ERA and WHIP, struck out 10 more, who knows, I'm sure the other team was not putting out their best line-up either.
Since 2000, only 6 different pitchers have topped 250 IP, 8 times, 3 of who have retired or are out of baseball.
The retirees are - Curt Schilling (2), Randy Johnson, and surprisingly Jon Leiber (who left due to repeated injury.)
The active pitchers are Roy Halladay (2), Livan Hernandez (who has the most total IP since 2000) and CC Sabathia (who is 2nd to Livan).
In contrast, from 1960-1971, 103 pitchers went over 250 IP, a total of 231 times. 8 compared to 231 is a bunch. Granted more teams, but still.
So this year, Verlander, Shields, CC, all have a legit shot, with 7 more over 210.
I think starting pitching is definitely changing.
September 12th, 2011 at 3:12 pm
@6, T -- I count 13 Cy Young Awards in the specific seasons listed in the table:
-- Sabathia, Webb, Santana (2), Zito, Hernandez, Lincecum (2), Halladay, Pedro, Hentgen, Greinke, Smoltz.
September 12th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
Jered Weaver will be joining this list in another week or so. He came within 2 outs of making the list last year.
Like Felix, the Angels have been slowly increasing his innings every year - except for an ~20% innings increase in 2009 when he first went past 200 IP. Seems to be working.
September 12th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Only one player did it at age 22, and other than that, 23 is the youngest.
That's what I noticed most anyways.
September 12th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
And perhaps of note, the player that did it at 22, never did it again. Neither did 2 of the 23 year olds. The remarkable fragility of pitchers.
I'm interested in seeing the corresponding list for guys 1980-1995.
September 12th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
John Smoltz did this 5 times, to tie Livan Hernandez, but his other 4 came earlier than the search criteria.
September 12th, 2011 at 6:55 pm
@7
That's right. This year, the Mariners are finishing up the year with a 6-man rotation starting two rounds ago (I think) and Felix has been extraordinary on 5 days rest his last two starts. So with him starting today, he'll probably finish the year with 3 more starts, giving him 33. I believe Pineda will only have one more start (maybe two) to try and limit his innings a little bit. What I like about Felix and Pineda are that they are efficient strike throwers and can usually pitch more innings using not as many pitches as most starters out there.
Its not innings that fatigue a pitcher, but stress pitches.
September 12th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
There is good ol Buehrle again.
Showing once again, strikeouts are overrated.
September 12th, 2011 at 11:01 pm
strikeouts are overrated.
How so?
September 12th, 2011 at 11:44 pm
@7 162/5=33 starts/yr now. 154/4=37 starts/yr earlier. Now you need 7.5 innings/start to hit 250 innings, previously it was around 6.5
September 13th, 2011 at 12:11 am
A starter can throw 27 strikeouts and get shelled or just plain lose. Buehrle is the only one on the list to have won 10+ a year, Started 30+ game, Threw 200+ IP every year 2001-2010 and on pace to do it again this season. Not as sexy as some of the other guys, but none throw more quality starts.
September 13th, 2011 at 12:30 am
A starter can throw 27 strikeouts and get shelled or just plain lose.
If they play baseball for a million years, I guess it could happen.
In the real world, there have only been four 9-inning starts of 20 strikeouts, and the pitchers allowed 2 runs and 12 hits in 36 innings. And won each game.
September 13th, 2011 at 7:25 am
The first time, I looked at the data, I only looked at the pitcher's who pitched 225 innings in only one year prior to 2000. This time I looked at the entire set of pitchers that did not pitch in 2011. The first number represents The age when the pitcher first pitched 162 innings, the second represents oldest age they pitched 162 innings, the 3rd represents their ages when they last pitched in the majors, the 4th number is the number of years they pitched 162 innings and the double astericks represent a pitcher that had 2 or more years of pitching 225 innings.
This list is sorted by age last pitched 162 innings. None of the multiple 225 IP pitchers pitched past 33, but some of the pitchers are still active and were not included in the set. 5 of the 7 starting pitchers at age 34 and older began their starting career at 23 and 24. This is anusula observation vs 40 years ago, but the dataset is not finalized as some pitchers are still active.
23 / 25 / 30 / 3
27 / 27 / 33 / 1
26 / 27 / 29 / 2
23 / 27 / 30 / 5**
21 / 27 / 30 / 7
25 / 28 / 28 / 4**
24 / 28 / 37 / 5**
24 / 29 / 30 / 6**
23 / 29 / 31 / 7
22 / 29 / 33 / 8
21 / 30 / 31 / 10
25 / 31 / 31 / 7**
24 / 31 / 33 / 8
24 / 31 / 35 / 8**
24 / 31 / 37 / 8
25 / 32 / 33 / 8**
23 / 32 / 33 / 10**
22 / 32 / 34 / 11
26 / 33 / 34 / 8
23 / 33 / 37 / 11**
22 / 33 / 33 / 12**
26 / 34 / 39 / 9
22 / 34 / 36 / 13
27 / 35 / 36 / 9
23 / 35 / 36 / 13
23 / 37 / 38 / 15
23 / 39 / 39 / 17
22 / 40 / 42 / 19
I sorted the list by age when starting career began. Note the large number of seasons as a starter for the younger set. This is unusual vs 40 years ago.
21 / 27 / 30 / 7
21 / 30 / 31 / 10
22 / 29 / 33 / 8
22 / 32 / 34 / 11
22 / 33 / 33 / 12**
22 / 34 / 36 / 13
22 / 40 / 42 / 19
23 / 25 / 30 / 3
23 / 27 / 30 / 5**
23 / 29 / 31 / 7
23 / 32 / 33 / 10**
23 / 33 / 37 / 11**
23 / 35 / 36 / 13
23 / 37 / 38 / 15
23 / 39 / 39 / 17
24 / 28 / 37 / 5**
24 / 29 / 30 / 6**
24 / 31 / 33 / 8
24 / 31 / 35 / 8**
24 / 31 / 37 / 8
25 / 28 / 28 / 4**
25 / 31 / 31 / 7**
25 / 32 / 33 / 8**
26 / 27 / 29 / 2
26 / 33 / 34 / 8
26 / 34 / 39 / 9
27 / 27 / 33 / 1
27 / 35 / 36 / 9
September 13th, 2011 at 10:13 am
On the issue of strikeouts and whether or not they are overrated ...
I did a search to see how many pitchers had more than 50 quality starts since 2000 (Buehrle's first year). There were 191, and Buehrle had the second most in that span, 2 behind Tim Hudson.
I then added that the pitcher needed to have a quality start in 60% of his games started in that span (Buehrle's percentage is a shade over 63%) - mainly, I didn't want pitchers who amassed a lot of quality starts simply due to sheer volume of innings pitched (Sidney Ponson is on the original list of pitchers with more than 50 QS). This dropped the number of pitchers down to 40.
I then added that the pitcher needed to have a K/9 LESS than 6.0 over that span (Buehrle is at 5.08). There were only 3 pitchers left - Buehrle, Glavine (4.87 K/9, 180 QS, 63.6% of his GS were QS), and Hudson (5.94 K/9, 231 QS, 65.4% of his GS were QS).
Even if you bump the K/9 requirement up to 6.5 you still get those 3 pitchers.
If you bump the K/9 requirement up to 6.75 you add Hiroki Kuroda, who has 67 QS and a 60.3% QS percentage with a 6.71 K/9 rate.
So only 10% of the pitchers who have had 50 QS since 2000 and a QS% of 60% or better have a K/9 rate less than 6.75, which is almost certainly above the league average.
The median in that group is a K/9 around 8, though there are some younger pitchers who will strike out less over time (they also may fall off the list though if they fail to have a QS% over 60%). If you look at the "old" guys on the list, the ones who had already reached age 30 by 2000, it is basically the best power pitchers of the 1990s (Clemens, Unit, Kevin Brown, Schilling, Smoltz) and Tom Glavine.
Buehrle and Glavine and perhaps Hudson, and I think I'm borrowing a quote from Bill James here, define the limits of what it takes to be a successful major league pitcher. There just aren't a lot of major league starting pitchers who can strike out around 5 batters per 9 innings and be successful over the long haul - Buehrle is the exception, and if you raise the QS% up to 65% he drops off the list. Tim Hudson remains on, but then everyone has a K/9 better than 7.
Looking at this basic analysis I don't see how strikeouts are overrated.
September 13th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
In a previous blog, when I brought up the number of 4.5 k per nine innings pitched since 1961(expansion), Charles did some great research, to
which, I never responded.
Firstly, the number of 4.5 is just meant to make a point. I understand how strikeouts have declined over the years.
As I recall, Charles found 670 pitchers who have started at least 100 games since 1961.
If I recall correctly, only 101 of these 670 averaged less than 4.5 K's per
nine innings. Meanwhile 569 who averaged over 4.5 K's made over
100 starts.
So while K's may not always predict (Buerhle), it is a stong indicator of success over a longer term.
To summarize, if you are betting on a young pitcher, you have a much better
chance the higher the strikeout rate is.
September 13th, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Let me summarize more clearly. Based on a min. of 100 starts...
Since 1961 if you average less than 4.5 K per nine innings, you have
a 15.07% chance of starting 100 games in your career.
If you average more than this, your chance of accumulating at least
100 starts jumps to 84.93%.
Thanks Charles. I hope I didn't misinterpret your efforts.
September 13th, 2011 at 5:04 pm
@22
I never said that and the numbers I presented would not lead one to conclude that. I don't recall where the post was, but it was 100 starts versus 300 and the conclusion was that of all players who had at least 100 GS, a lower % (I don't recall the number) of those below 4.5 SO/IP reached 300 Starts. I said nothing about the probability of reaching 100.
Just like you did, I will look at pitchers from 2000-2011, comparing SO ratio and QS%, but I will look at those with at least 170 Starts (90% Starts). This represents someone who would have been a starter at least 1/2 those years.
Of those with less than 6.8 SO/9 IP, 3/39 had 60% QS (67% are above 50% QS)
Of tose with more than 6.8 SO/9IP, 21/39 had 60% QS (92% are above 50% QS)
If one wants to base a concluison on QS, then it's clear based on 60% which is the better group. If one wants to use 50%, I would say the difference is not tremendous and other factors such as WHIP or ERA or another factor should be used.
You stated that 10% of the pitchers of the 60% QS pitchers had below a 6.75 ratio. I have 3/24 12% no differerence.
Above 300 GS
Relying only on QS% and SO ratio, I would say there's no real difference in this subset of 17/78
10 are below 6.8 SO/9IP; 9/10 are above 50% QS; 2/10 above 60
7 are above 6.8SO/9IP; 7/7 are above 50% QS; 3 of 7 are above 60
So there's no dramatic loss of low SO pitchers from 170 GS to 300 GS relative to the high SO pitchers.
8 pitchers 35 and older started 200 games from 2000 to 2011. 6 of those are in the below 6.8 SO/9IP group. All 8 were above 50% QS. Johnson, Clemens, and Glavine were above 60% QS. Other factors are needed to determine which SO group is more effective.
September 13th, 2011 at 8:13 pm
In quality starts this year if the starting pitcher struck out batters below the major league average of 7.1, his team won 63% of the time. If he struck out batters above the league average, his team won 65% of the time.
If the strikeouts were greater than the number of innings, his team won 53% of the time. If it's a quality start 69%. In Randy Johnson's 5 best win seasons, his team won 71% of his starts.
September 14th, 2011 at 1:16 am
In quality starts this year if the starting pitcher struck out batters below the major league average of 7.1, his team won 63% of the time. If he struck out batters above the league average, his team won 65% of the time.
You've already filtered on QS which are known to be good results. It's not far off from looking at SHO with 0 K and SHO with 10 K.
Why not ignore the QS part of it?
September 14th, 2011 at 1:27 am
This year, in ALL starts, if a pitcher struck out batters above the MLB average, his team won 52.3% of games. If fewer, they won 48.2%.
Of course, none of this has to do with the issue of whether pitchers who strike out more batters tend to last longer.
September 14th, 2011 at 10:00 am
@25
The topic was QS and SO.
The question I asked was "Does having above average strikeouts in a QS, increase your teams chance of winning?". 65 vs 63.
The next question I asked was "Does having more strikeouts than innings in a QS, increase your teams chance of winning?". 69 vs 63 (less than average).
Going back to your 52.3% vs 48.2%.
In 44% of the starts, the starting pitcher was above the league average. You would expect, in 100 games (200 starts) 88 starts
HOME, VISITOR
hSO, hSO games 0.44 * 0.44 * 100 19 games 32 starts
hSO, lSO games 0.44*0.56*100 25 games 50 starts
lSO, hSO games 0.56*0.44*100 25 games 50 starts
lSO, lSO games 0.56*0.56*100 31 games 62 starts
You said hSO pitchers have won 52.3% in their 88 starts (46-42) subtract the theoretical 19-19 when they face each other
that leaves 27-23 54% when they face a lSO pitcher
Your low SO pitchers are 48.2% of their 112 starts (54-58) take out the theoretical 31 starts vs each other that leaves 23-27.
So you would expect an a hSO pitcher's team to win 54% of the time they face a lSO starting pitcher (includes QS and nonQS games). hSO means above the league average in that start. lSO means below the league average in that start.
I could have tweaked my 65, 63, 69 numbers the same way, but the point I was trying to make was, you need to go beyond QS and SO in post 20. I did by introducing simply introducing team win%.
Johnny
And you have extended it to include nonQS. Feel free to continue the highSO vs lowSO topic, if you'd like.
September 15th, 2011 at 11:50 pm
The example I was pointing out happen on this day in 1969: Cardinals Steve Carlton strikes out 19, but loses to Mets after Ron Swoboda hits two 2-run homers, in a 4-3 game. I believe it was Dizzy Dean that said about strikeouts and no hitters. "You can't lose a shutout."