Recap for Friday, 9/16/11, part I: “And the first team to clinch its division IS…”
Posted by John Autin on September 17, 2011
Champagne flowed in the Tigers' clubhouse, but stayed on ice in Philly....
-- In Oakland, Doyle Alexander ... er, Doug Fister pitched the Tigers to their first division title since 1987, improving to 6-1, 2.12 in 9 Bengal starts. Fister threw strikes with 69% of his 91 pitches -- 30 of them called strikes -- and held the A's to a run on 3 hits in 8 IP. It was his 6th straight start of 7+ IP and no more than 1 ER; only Justin Verlander has a longer streak since 2006 (7 this year), and only Verlander and Al Benton (7 in 1945) have longer streaks for the Tigers in the live-ball era.
Josh Willingham homered (#27) for the 4th time in 8 games, but he grounded to 3B for the last out against Jose Valverde, who extended his club record with his 45th save and still hasn't blown one.
- Is 30 called strikes to 27 batters a lot? My hunch is yes, but I don't know how to search for that. Let's look at some recent high-K games ... Randy Johnson's 20-K game had 20 called strikes out of 92 total and 29 batters faced; Ben Sheets fanned 18, with 27 called strikes out of 91 total and 31 BF; Brandon Morrow's 17-K 1-hitter had 25 called strikes out of 97 and 31 BF. Going back a little further ... Kerry Wood's 20-K game had 30 called strikes out of 84 and 29 BF; the 2nd 20-K game by Roger Clemens had 31 called strikes out of 101 and 32 BF (he threw 151 pitches; no strike breakdown on his 1st one); this 19-K game by Johnson had 29 called out of 91 and 35 BF (148 total pitches), and this one had 33 called out of 100 and 37 BF (142 pitches).
- Funny thing about Valverde's "perfect" season, though: he ranks 7th among relievers in Win Probability Added and 17th in Wins Above Replacement. One reason: his 4 losses all came when he pitched the 9th in a tie game at home (allowing 2+ runs in 3 of the 4), a situation of much higher leverage than the average Save. Those 4 losses removed as much Win Probability as would be accrued in about 8 one-run saves.
- Batting race update: Miguel Cabrera (1-1) is at .335, 2nd to Adrian Gonzalez (0-3, .337); Michael Young (0-3) fell to .333. In the OBP race, Cabrera began the night in 2nd by 6 points and reached in all 4 trips (now .442), but lost ground, as Jose Bautista was on base 5 times (.449).
-- It will take at least one more day for this season's longest-running foregone conclusion to become a fait accompli. Despite outside assistance, the Phillies missed their first chance to clinch their 5th straight NL East title, falling at home to the highly motivated Cardinals, 4-2 in 12 innings.
With New York's torching of Turner Field perhaps energizing both clubs -- one in desperate wild-card pursuit of the Braves, the other sitting on a divisional magic number of 2 -- late heroics were the order of the evening. Yadier Molina put the Redbirds on top in the 8th with a solo HR off Antonio Bastardo (not quite so dominant in September), but the Phils struck back with 2 out in the 9th on doubles by Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz. The Cards scored twice in the 11th; Adron "Large Collider" Chambers accelerated the particle into RF for his 1st career hit to bring in the go-ahead run. St. Louis trails Atlanta by 3 losses for the wild card.
- Does a Ryan Howard pinch-hit double count as a "win" for the opposition? I say yes -- especially if he's batting in the 9th with 2 out, none on and a 1-run deficit. Howard's career PH line now shows 14 for 32 (.438) with six HRs and 4 doubles (1.125 slugging).
- Ruiz's clutch "hit" was really a drop by the defensive-replacement RF. I repeat: Never in my wildest dreams of Tony LaRussa's downfall did I think that a do-or-die moment would be entrusted to Corey Patterson.
- Those 9th-inning hits went against Jason Motte, who had allowed just 1 ER since June 26 -- 32.1 IP, 20 hits, 3 walks, 3 doubles in that stretch before tonight.
- Albert Pujols went 4 for 4 (plus 2 walks), pushing his BA over .300 for the first time all year. He had never before reached safely 6+ times in a game without making an out. That had been done 81 times by 70 other players since Pujols debuted in 2001. (Bet you can guess who did it thrice....) It was his 36th game of 4+ hits, just the 4th without an extra-base hit.
- Albert's hitting .434 in September, and .321 since May 4. He still needs 7 RBI and 5 Runs for his 10th year of .300/30/100/100. (He finished 1 Run short in 2007.) No matter where his BA winds up, Albert will post the lowest OBP and OPS of his career; and yes, his 151 OPS+ before tonight was also a career low.
- No more Lucky Charms? Philly lost a Vance Worley start for the 2nd straight time, and have dropped 2 out of 3 with Brian Schneider catching. They were 16-2 in Worley's starts and 27-3 in Schneider's before this "slump."
September 17th, 2011 at 2:24 am
Just a quick note: I think they said on the radio that the Ruiz "hit" was originally a hit (double) but then changed to an error and an unearned run...
September 17th, 2011 at 3:49 am
Great stuff as usual, John.
The Society of Round Numbers would like to add the following request to Phat Albert's wish list: 5 more doubles, so he'll reach 30 for the 11th time, well on his way to Tris Speaker's career record.
PS - It's interesting that he was slugging under .400 as late as May 29. Since, he's put up a 300/.390/.640 line.
September 17th, 2011 at 4:24 am
@2.
"It's interesting that he was slugging under .400 as late as May 29."
It is indeed interesting. Especially considering that, as of today, there are 3 teams (Mariners, Giants, Padres) that have ZERO qualifying batters slugging .400. The last time there were that many such teams was 1976 (4 teams). Since then, there has not been any year with more than one team without a .400 slugger. Until now.
The Mariners also did this last year. Unless Olivo or Smoak heat it up the rest of the way, Seattle will be the first team without a full-time .400 slugger in consecutive seasons since the White Sox and Dodgers in 1967 and 1968.
As a suffering Mariners fan, I'm delighted for Doug Fister - very good pitcher who seemed like he was alway pitching in hard luck with Seattle.
September 17th, 2011 at 6:48 am
Johnny Damon stole 3 bases off Beckett/Varitek his former teamates. He only reached base twice so it looks like he just knew his old teamates were too slow to cut him down.
The Rays stole 7 bases in the game, and were never caught, so it looks like they knew Beckett/Vtek was an easy combo to run on.
September 17th, 2011 at 8:02 am
Is 30 called strikes to 27 batters a lot? My hunch is yes
It's been mentioned that Bartolo Colon has the highest percentage of strikeouts via called strike this season, so I checked him. I don't see any games quite as good as 30 in 27. He did have a 24 to 22 batters (vs the Mets, natch). He leads the AL with 34% of all strikes being called (Fister is 4th at 31%, league avg is 28%).
It would take more math than I have time for right now to calculate average called strikes per batter faced, but the data is available if someone wants to take a run at it.
September 17th, 2011 at 9:13 am
If the Phillies would have won in extra innings, how many times has the division been clinched on a walk-off win?
September 17th, 2011 at 9:24 am
In the NL, the BA and OPS races are also interesting. Braun had a huge game for Milwaukee, belting his 29th and 30th homers, becoming on the second Brewer to go 30/30 (he's had the 30 steals for a while), and he's now only 1 RBI short of going 100/100. I don't know the rarity of 30/30/100/100/.330, but that's about where he is right now. Needless to say, that's a pretty remarkable season. MVP-worthy, some may say. Regardless, it stands to reason Jose Reyes had a great game in the Mets' slaughter of the Braves. Reyes went 3-5, to increase his lead in the batting race to 4 points over Braun, .334 to .330, in spite of Braun's great day. However, that isn't the only race in which Braun is neck-and-neck with the leader. While Braun leads in SLG by a mile, Joey Votto leads in OBP by about as much. Not surprisingly, for a few weeks, the two have been very close in OPS. Due to Braun's 2-4 with 2 homers, Votto's 3-4 (all singles) put Braun back on top, after falling behind Votto as of yesterday. Both of these situations merit watching as the season wears on.
September 17th, 2011 at 9:27 am
Also, in my section on Ryan Braun worship, I neglected to mention that, if he gets a little hot in terms of on-base and increases his current rate by 4 points before the season ends, he could also go .300/.400/.500 - he currently sits at .330/.396/.590, putting him comfortably over in the first and third categories.
September 17th, 2011 at 9:40 am
When the Phillies clinch the NL East this year, wouldn't it only be their 5th straight division title?
September 17th, 2011 at 9:43 am
It will be 5 straight division titles for the Phillies, not 6.
September 17th, 2011 at 10:33 am
As if more proof was needed of Pujols's greatness....after last night his career low OPS+ was his 151 in 2002. Yet in what was arguably his worst season he came in second in the MVP voting.
September 17th, 2011 at 11:05 am
David Robertson once again loaded the bases and got out of it.
Living up to his nickname, regularly.
And hey, quite seriously, if there are any major league Managers reading this blog, would you please be so kind as to explain the philosophy behind using your 5th best reliever in a walk-off situation when you have the greatest relief pitcher in the history of our species rested and ready in the bullpen? Because this seems to be standard strategy. And to a layman such as myself, it appears to be flawed.
September 17th, 2011 at 11:21 am
My goof on the Phillies' division title streak, one I make all the time -- looked at their Franchise Encyclopedia page, saw five straight 1st's atop the list, and forgot that the last one was the current year.
Or maybe I'm trying a preemptive jinx for next season. 🙂
September 17th, 2011 at 11:30 am
@12 -- Voomo the Blasphemer! Voomo the Heretic!! How dare you even suggest that a Man on the Cusp of History be asked to work such a Thankless Inning?!?
Are we even sure that the rules permit him to be used in a tie game? The New York Times headline says, "Blue Jays Don't Let Yanks Get To Rivera."
Sheesh, Voomo -- these flights of fancy really are too much! 🙂
September 17th, 2011 at 11:33 am
All you gotta remember is Rollins claimed they were the team to beat before the 2007 seasons. And they haven't lost a division title race since (assuming they lock up this year's title).
September 17th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
Five different Mets had three or more hits in last night's game. The last time a major league team not using a designated hitter had five different players with three or more hits in the same game was exactly four years earlier, September 16, 2007, when the Rockies beat the Marlins 13-0 in Colorado. That game kicked off the Rockies' extraordinary 2007 run to the NL pennant -- it was win #1 in a string of 11 in a row and 21 wins in 22 games (including seven post-season wins) that allowed Colorado to sneak into the wild card spot and then a spot in the World Series. Sadly, not a feat the Mets are poised to repeat.
September 17th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
@14
The scary part is that, as the years go on, Girardi is starting to err on the side of Torre. I think he was even sipping Bigelow tea in the dugout last night.
April 4th, my birthday, 2006, my girlfriend surprised me with tickets to the Yankee game in Oakland. Game 2 of the season.
Game one the Yanx won 15-2.
Relievers uses were Tanyon Sturtze and Ron Villone.
So game 2 you would think we could see Mo in a critical situation.
Unless he was still tuckered out from the plane ride outta Tampa.
Bottom of the ninth. Tie Game. Scott Proctor. Game over.
What is completely maddening about this trend is that it is not like it is a 100-year old "Baseball Tradition". Twenty years ago there were still closers "by committee" and nobody had a problem with it. Nowadays, though, pitchers are apparently so psychologically sensitive about how they are used that if a manager gets it wrong everybody is going to get fired and have Tommy John surgery.
Seriously, please, I know there must be at least one manager who comes to this website. Please defend yourself and your brethren. My frothing angry sarcasm isn't really contributing that much to the discussion. I humbly ask for a weigh-in from a professional.
September 17th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Next to the fate of my Red Sox, Albert Pujols' quest for .300/30/100 has been my main baseball focus over the last few months. I know that BA and RBI are not terribly important stats - RBI especially - but there's still something magical about the numbers.
We've already lost Peyton Manning. I need stability in my sporting life! C'mon, Pujols!
September 17th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
[...] the Detroit clincher, see here and [...]
September 17th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
@17, Voomo -- I'm 99% in agreement with you, but let me play devil's advocate for just a moment. The compartmentalization of reliever roles is consistent with some broader, long-term trends in pitcher usage and general approach to the game:
1. It's easy to say that "old-school" relief aces didn't care about when they were used. But they didn't pitch as often: There were no seasons of 60 relief games before 1939, and none of 70 until Konstanty in 1950; no team before 1953 had 2 pitchers with 50 relief games. And there weren't 6 other relievers sitting around the bullpen with them who might actually get into the game. So even though they weren't given official Roles, they had at least some idea of when they might be used, based on the game situation and the schedule.
2. Rotations are almost iron-clad now; not only is it big news when a SP is used on 3 days' rest, some teams won't even use an off-day to skip one of their back-end starters while keeping their ace on 4 days' rest. (A friend of mine always used to gripe about the Mets not maximizing Johan, back when such things were possible and mattered.)
3. Today's game has a lot more focus on structured preparation. Players have a lot more routines -- for their gym work (which barely existed 30 years ago), for watching video of opponents, for doing community appearances. One constantly hears about the importance of maintaining a routine. I don't know if it's as true as all that -- but assigned relief roles are definitely part of a larger picture.
What we might hope for is changing the assignments for maximum leverage. There's no reason a team can't be just as structured in its use of a relief ace, but use him in the most important situations. Drop the 1-inning saves with a 3-run lead from his "to-do" list, and replace them with 9th-inning ties, even on the road.
September 17th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
John, I appreciated the LHC reference, although to get Hadron from Adron you need to say it with a Cockney accent...
September 17th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
@ 2 / 18: I'm with you guys.
Even though I'm an otherwise competely normal fan with an advanced degree in sabermetrics, I find myself totally obsessed with the harmony of Pujols' career counting stats.
I'm not even a big fan of him. I just love his numbers. It would actually hurt me if he messed it up like Frank Thomas did in '98.
September 17th, 2011 at 7:25 pm
@ JA
You say in your post that Albert Pujols missed getting 100 runs "last year"
He missed the magic # in 2007 when he had 99.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker
I remember following that last game of the season via CBS Game Tracker
I can't do a link to the BB-Ref Box Score now that I started this Reply) via CBS game tracker.
I was hoping TLR would put him in as a pinch runner at 3rd early in the game, however he started as expected an I was hoping he would get the run scored quick.
The Cards won 6-5 over the Pirates.
Unfortunately Pujols went 0 for 5 and struck out 2 times that final game of the 2007 regular season.
September 17th, 2011 at 7:26 pm
@21, Whiz -- But then I'd have to call 'im Adron Iggins.
September 17th, 2011 at 7:28 pm
@23, Mike -- Thanks for the Al-Pu correction. As the butler said to Bogie in The Big Sleep: "I make many mistakes, sir."
September 17th, 2011 at 7:32 pm
@22, Will -- Well put.
BTW, I strongly believe that Chipper should retire right now, while his Runs and RBI are exactly equal (after driving in the only run today).
September 17th, 2011 at 9:39 pm
As cool as Braun possibly going .300-.400-.500
I think the .400-.500-.600 club is especially cool.
Rogers Hornsby 1924 .424 .507 .696
Ed Delahanty 1985 .404.500 .617
Ted WIlliams 1941 .406 .553 .735
Hugh Duffy 1894 .440 .502 .694
Sorry the formatting sucks, but it is what it is.
September 17th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
@27, Mike S -- Fun list!
The 1894 pinball numbers do have to be discounted by at least 1/3. Duffy's Beaneaters averaged 9.2 R/G, and the 12-team league averaged 7.4. Five qualifiers hit .400, including 4 Phillies; that squad batted .350, and the whole league hit .309.
That's like a good MLB offense playing all its games in pre-humidor Coors Field against AAA pitching.
1895 was only a bit less ballistic, averaging 6.6 R/G, with Delahanty's Phillies over 8.
September 18th, 2011 at 12:50 am
@5, Colon's called strikes.
In Saturday's game against the Jays, Colon had 19 called strikes on 20 batters (compared to only 2 swing-and-miss strikes). Watching the game, it did seem like a lot of called strikes.
September 18th, 2011 at 2:41 am
@27, Mike S -- It's only 37 PAs, but check out Bryan LaHair:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lahaibr01.shtml
September 19th, 2011 at 12:22 am
I thought of Pedro Martinez regarding the high number of called strikes because of his pitching ability as well as the strategy of taking pitches to run up his pitch count often employed against him.
He had quite a number of games with called strikes greater than or equal to batters faced. The best game I spotted was:
7/23/2000: 38 Called Strikes, 34 BF
September 19th, 2011 at 12:47 am
Thanks to all for the called-strike legwork!
September 20th, 2011 at 12:32 am
In both 1999 and 2000, about 28% of Martinez's strikes were called, just a bit above league average. (Of course, he was throwing more strikes than most.)