Phillies are done (Part 3: Done having to worry about the division, that is)
Posted by Andy on September 22, 2010
Continuing on with my earth-shattering prediction of the Phillies' demise, I see from today's standings that the Phillies have just about locked up the NL East. With a few head-to-head games remaining against the Braves, there's a slight chance they won't win it, but it's a major long shot.
Now that the Phillies are in the playoffs (it would take a mathematical miracle to send them home at the end of the regular season) I see them as the favorite to win the World Series.
Check out the leaders in WAR among NL pitchers:
| WAR for Pitchers s c a p y | ||
| 1. | Halladay (PHI) | 6.8 |
| 2. | Jimenez (COL) | 6.5 |
| 3. | Johnson (FLA) | 6.4 |
| 4. | Wainwright (STL) | 5.5 |
| 5. | Hudson (ATL) | 5.4 |
| 6. | Hamels (PHI) | 5.2 |
| Myers (HOU) | 5.2 | |
| 8. | Oswalt (2TM) | 4.7 |
| 9. | Santana (NYM) | 4.5 |
| 10. | Kershaw (LAD) | 4.1 |
| Cain (SFG) | 4.1 | |
There are Roy, Cole, and Roy at #1, #6. and #8. In the playoffs, 3 quality starters are all that's needed. After that, it's down to strength of bullpen and offense. Philly's bullpen, though no San Diego, is still good, and since getting Utley and Howard back their offense has been greatly improved.
I'd say it's looking pretty good--but based on my last serious prediction about this team, this might actually be bad news for Phillie phans.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:11 pm
In the playoffs, 3 quality starters are all that's needed.
It might seem so, and yet the '90s Braves and '00 A's were notoriously disappointing in the postseason.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:13 pm
Well, yeah, what I meant was that 3 starters who pitch well is all you need, starting-pitcher-wise. If they don't pitch well or the offense doesn't hit, ain't gonna matter.
And despite the fact that those teams didn't do all that well, it doesn't mean that they weren't similarly favored before the post-season, and so I see no reason not to pick the Phillies as the favorite this year.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:16 pm
I wonder how great of a factor or influence Pitcher WAR is in Cy Young voting. I assume most of the voters are the stodgy, ink-stained wretches from yesteryear and that most aren't SABR guys. So maybe no influence.
Still - and if I had the time I'd check this, easy to do - I wonder how often the pitcher with the best WAR in a particular season won the Cy. Or the highest VORP.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Dan, I've looked at that a little bit and I think the answer is very roughly around 40-50% of the time.
Still, this year, tough to argue with giving the CY to the guy with the most wins, Halladay, who also happens to have the highest WAR. He's a candidate that all forms of voter can support.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:20 pm
That's what I think as well, Andy, but I am highly biased (Phillies fan). I can see cases being made for Johnson or Wainwright. Jiminez, maybe earlier in the season, but he's found the second half a lot tougher going, so I am guessing he finishes fourth or worse in the eventual balloting.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:28 pm
I would say that either Johnson or Halladay will win the Cy...but I learned something from the original "Phillies are done" post -- I'll let Andy make the predictions. He's far more graceful than I with the occaisional freak occurance.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:35 pm
Does everyone realize the Phils could have rolled out the Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/Myers combo this year?
There would be no farm system left, but it could have happened.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:36 pm
With Johnson done for the season, I have a hard time seeing him getting a serious Cy Young push. I could see Wainwright getting consideration, but this award is Halladay's to lose.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:46 pm
@3
Here's a post I made about that topic:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/8/13/1622256/what-is-the-cy-young-award
It's about 50% all-time.
September 22nd, 2010 at 5:14 pm
If my figuring is correct, the Phillies still have to avoid losing five games more than the Braves to clinch the East title {as of today, that is.}, the Reds "magic number is now 2, and the West is still a coin toss. The Phillies are in the catbird seat, but as the old saying goes, "It ain't over 'till it's over".
September 22nd, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Strange, MLB.com has the Reds' magic number at 4. But they're up by 8 with 10 to play. 10-8=2, plus 1 = 3. Shouldn't it be 3?
The Phils' number is right. Up by 5 with 10 to play. 10-5=5, plus 1 is 6.
September 22nd, 2010 at 5:49 pm
@11
The Cardinals have played 2 less games, so it throws off the easy calculation.
September 22nd, 2010 at 5:52 pm
"there's a slight chance they won't win it, but it's a major long shot" sounds like something written about the Phillies in late September '64 too. Just saying.
It'd be nice to see Philadelphia win a 3rd straight pennant. I think the last team (not in the Bronx) to do that, was the Swingin' A's? I don't think the 90's Braves even pulled it off. Come to think of it... how many teams have done it all, ever?
September 22nd, 2010 at 6:48 pm
Frank, there's certainly still a shot for the Braves. Coolstandings.com currently (before tonight's game) gives the Phillies a 95.2% chance of winning the division and the Braves a 4.8% chance. It could happen, but it's going to take a lot.
September 22nd, 2010 at 7:08 pm
i don't think the Braves are even going to win the Wild Card. but then again, i'm just a cynical bastard.
September 22nd, 2010 at 7:08 pm
@12 - That's true, and the reason it's different on MLB.com (should have realized this) is that the number isn't a Magic Number, it's an Elimination Number. So it's STL's.
The number of games the second-place team has played doesn't enter into the equation of the Magic Number. Unless I'm doing it wrong. You take the number of games the first-place team has remaining, subtract the number of games by which they lead the second-place team, and add one (otherwise, it's a Magic Number for a tie).
September 22nd, 2010 at 7:21 pm
a 3rd straight pennant. . . . how many teams have done it all, ever?
1998-2001 Yankees (4)
1988-1990 A's
1976-1978 Yankees
1972-1974 A's
1969-1971 Orioles
1960-1964 Yankees (5)
1955-1958 Yankees (4)
1949-1953 Yankees (5)
1942-1944 Cardinals (NL)
1941-1943 Yankees
1936-1939 Yankees (4)
1929-1931 A's
1926-1928 Yankees
1921-1924 Giants (NL) (4)
1921-1923 Yankees
1911-1913 Giants (NL)
1907-1909 Tigers
1906-1908 Cubs (NL)
1901-1903 Pirates (NL)
1894-1896 Orioles
1891-1893 Beaneaters
1880-1882 White Stockings
September 22nd, 2010 at 8:02 pm
Plus two more from the AA and NA:
1885-1888 St Louis Browns (AA)
1872-1875 Boston Red Stockings (NA)
September 22nd, 2010 at 8:15 pm
. . . and I was just sayin', this years Phils remind me of those '82 White Stockings.
September 22nd, 2010 at 9:19 pm
if i may respond to my own post, looking at the Braves' schedule, they still have one more road series. granted, it's against Washington, but given how poorly they play on the road i'd still be very concerned if i was them. plus, one more series against the Phils. that's at home, but given how helpless they look against good pitching, i really would not be surprised to see them fall completely out of contention.
September 22nd, 2010 at 10:01 pm
Nice list, Tuna. IN the divisional era, three teams won three consecuitve within the first 10 years, then only the A's and Yanks since then. Pretty exclusive if the Phillies do it.
September 22nd, 2010 at 10:17 pm
@19
Dan, love it! Your great-great grandfather passed down the 1882 White Stockings tradition. (lol)
All kiddin' aside, the Phillies are clearly a lock for the division. What would be interesting is if they run into a late-season buzz saw called the Rockies who snag the wild-card.
Gotta like the Phillies post-season pitching compared to the Yankees if it comes down to that Series matchup.
September 22nd, 2010 at 10:55 pm
The Phillies ARE a late-season buzzsaw. They've been even better than the Rockies this month.
September 23rd, 2010 at 12:10 am
@ 20
That final series has a VERY interesting scenario though. The Phillies very well could have clinched both the division and home field by that point. Braves might still be fighting for a wild card spot. What's a Charlie to do?
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:21 am
Last season (with the division clinched with 4 games remaining) Charlie sat everyone for the final weekend. Although, that was against the Marlins, who weren't in playoff contention at the time...
I even looked back to '08 and the final weekend wasn't against a playoff relevant team.
Personally, I'd think the Phillies would want the Braves in the playoffs, seeing as the Braves didn't put up much of a fight this 3 game series, and the Rockies/Giants/Padres Wild Card team would be playing much much better.
But then again, momentum can change a dozen more ways in this final week....
September 23rd, 2010 at 1:50 am
I know he hasn't had great numbers this year, but Raul Ibanez has come on big time down the stretch.
He's hitting .312 since July 3rd, and he's up to 15 homers and 78 RBI for the season. The RBI count is one behind Jason Werth, who's second on the club.
Even more impressive, he's batting .361 this month! He's got 14 RBI in 19 games, and an OPS of 1.015.
September 23rd, 2010 at 7:07 am
If the Phillies are up 4 in the division and best record in the NL going into the final weekend, they BETTER rest the big three and set up the rotation for Wednesday, October 6th. I don't care about Cy Young awards, playing to win, or any stupid crap like that.
September 23rd, 2010 at 2:19 pm
If the first game is Wednesday as you suggest I'd imagine whoever is going to start game 1 will pitch on Friday night... to keep up a 4 days off schedule. I'd also imagine he (whoever it is) only pitches 5 innings or so, maybe less...
September 23rd, 2010 at 8:20 pm
Another 1-0 game and another one-hitter for 2010.
The Braves' lone hit was a very loud double early in the game, before the Phillies got any of their four hits. So this was not a game in which the possibility of a no-hitter grew as the game progressed. In fact, the Phillies were the ones who looked early on like they would fall victim to a no-no. Their lone baserunner early on was hit by a pitch, although he made it to third thanks to an error on a steal of second.
September 23rd, 2010 at 8:27 pm
@24-@28
What does "integrity of the game" mean in this series if Atlanta is locked in a life-and-death battle for the wild card? The Brave's wild-card competitors hope that Charlie "plays to win" on that weekend.
In this context, it has been interesting that an old-school manager like Cito Gaston fields his best line-up when playing the Yankees or Rays in September but uses his callups and fringe players when playing teams like Baltimore or Seattle. But I guess it is easy to take that moral high ground when you're not positioning yourself for the post-season.......
September 23rd, 2010 at 9:31 pm
Neil L (#30),
That all sounds nice and sportsmanlike, but the Phillies have earned the right to rest their starters, in order to have them fresh for the postseason.
Would you have them run themselves ragged, right up to the end, possibly risking an injury to a key player? They earned this break by winning.
It's Manuel's job to do what he has to do to prepare his club for the postseason. If that means get them some rest, that's what he should do.
Playing your best lineup at this point against the remaining contenders is really only practicable for the teams that have already fallen out of the race (Gaston's Blue Jays, for example). The idea there is that they don't show undue favoritism to any one team.
If Manuel doesn't do anything untoward, like play all his starters against one contender, then rest them against the other contender, that's fine.
September 24th, 2010 at 12:01 am
If I was the Phillies management and Manuel didn't take steps to preserve his staff, I would make certain that his next job would involving grilling dead animal parts and asking customers if they wanted special sauce or fries with their order.
September 24th, 2010 at 11:03 am
@ Dan
You have to use the number of games they lead by in the loss column, not in the standings.