Notes on Nelson Cruz’s performance
Posted by Andy on October 11, 2011
It's always neat to look at the scoreboard and see that the home team won an extra inning game by 4 runs. There's only one way for that to happen--a walk-off grand slam.
Indeed Nelson Cruz did it yesterday, ending the game on his second homer of the day.
Cruz's walk-off homer was the first in a playoff game since 2009:
| Date ▾ | Series | Gm# | Batter | Tm | Opp | Pitcher | Score | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | WPA | RE24 | Play Description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-10-10 | ALCS | 2 | Nelson Cruz | TEX | DET | Ryan Perry | tied 3-3 | b11 | 123 | 0 | 4 (1-2) | 4 | 0.06 | 2.15 | 2.38 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Young Scores; Beltre Scores; Napoli Scores |
| 2009-10-09 | ALDS | 2 | Mark Teixeira | NYY | MIN | Jose Mijares | tied 3-3 | b11 | --- | 0 | 4 (2-1) | 1 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 2.32 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Line Drive) |
| 2007-10-05 | ALDS | 2 | Manny Ramirez | BOS | LAA | Francisco Rodriguez | tied 3-3 | b9 | 12- | 2 | 2 (1-0) | 3 | 0.38 | 2.64 | 4.47 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Lugo Scores; Ortiz Scores |
| 2006-10-14 | ALCS | 4 | Magglio Ordonez | DET | OAK | Huston Street | tied 3-3 | b9 | 12- | 2 | 2 (1-0) | 3 | 0.38 | 2.65 | 4.44 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Monroe Scores; Polanco Scores |
| 2005-10-23 | WS | 2 | Scott Podsednik | CHW | HOU | Brad Lidge | tied 6-6 | b9 | --- | 1 | 4 (2-1) | 1 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 1.87 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to CF-RF) |
| 2005-10-09 | NLDS | 4 | Chris Burke | HOU | ATL | Joey Devine | tied 6-6 | b18 | --- | 1 | 3 (2-0) | 1 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 1.82 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball) |
| 2004-10-20 | NLCS | 6 | Jim Edmonds | STL | HOU | Dan Miceli | tied 4-4 | b12 | 1-- | 1 | 2 (0-1) | 2 | 0.36 | 1.73 | 2.94 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to CF-RF); Pujols Scores |
| 2004-10-18 | NLCS | 5 | Jeff Kent | HOU | STL | Jason Isringhausen | tied 0-0 | b9 | 12- | 1 | 1 (0-0) | 3 | 0.29 | 2.34 | 4.28 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Beltran Scores; Berkman Scores |
| 2004-10-17 | ALCS | 4 | David Ortiz | BOS | NYY | Paul Quantrill | tied 4-4 | b12 | 1-- | 0 | 4 (2-1) | 2 | 0.27 | 1.60 | 3.10 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Ramirez Scores |
| 2004-10-08 | ALDS | 3 | David Ortiz | BOS | ANA | Jarrod Washburn | tied 6-6 | b10 | 1-- | 2 | 1 (0-0) | 2 | 0.43 | 1.86 | 2.44 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Reese Scores |
And it's the first grand slam to end a post-season game, ever. The best we'd seen before that was these 3-run homers to end a playoff game:
| Date ▾ | Series | Gm# | Batter | Tm | Opp | Pitcher | Score | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | WPA | RE24 | Play Description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-10-05 | ALDS | 2 | Manny Ramirez | BOS | LAA | Francisco Rodriguez | tied 3-3 | b9 | 12- | 2 | 2 (1-0) | 3 | 0.38 | 2.64 | 4.47 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Lugo Scores; Ortiz Scores |
| 2006-10-14 | ALCS | 4 | Magglio Ordonez | DET | OAK | Huston Street | tied 3-3 | b9 | 12- | 2 | 2 (1-0) | 3 | 0.38 | 2.65 | 4.44 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Monroe Scores; Polanco Scores |
| 2004-10-18 | NLCS | 5 | Jeff Kent | HOU | STL | Jason Isringhausen | tied 0-0 | b9 | 12- | 1 | 1 (0-0) | 3 | 0.29 | 2.34 | 4.28 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); Beltran Scores; Berkman Scores |
| 1993-10-23 | WS | 6 | Joe Carter | TOR | PHI | Mitch Williams | down 6-5 | b9 | 12- | 1 | 5 (2-2) | 3 | 0.66 | 2.34 | 7.16 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Deep LF Line); Henderson Scores; Molitor Scores |
| 1979-10-03 | ALCS | 1 | John Lowenstein | BAL | CAL | John Montague | tied 3-3 | b10 | 12- | 2 | 3 (0-2) | 3 | 0.39 | 2.66 | 4.38 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; DeCinces Scores; Bumbry Scores |
| 1954-09-29 | WS | 1 | Dusty Rhodes | NYG | CLE | Bob Lemon | tied 2-2 | b10 | 12- | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 2.35 | 4.29 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Deep RF); Mays Scores; Thompson Scores |
The full list of 42 post-season walk-off homers is here.
ALso, you might think Cruz's shot was "the ultimate" when it comes to clutch hitting. Do you know what the WPA was for his hit? Only 0.06, because the game was tied with the bases loaded and no outs. By the time Cruz stepped to the plate, the likelihood that the Rangers would win was exceptionally high (94%).
It was his earlier homer that was the money shot, as he tied the game in the bottom of the 7th with a solo homer. That was worth 0.21 WPA.
In fact Cruz's game isn't even the top WPA game in 2011. Here are single-game performances worth at least 0.4 WPA in the last 3 years:
| Rk | Player | Date | Series | Gm# | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | WPA | RE24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nelson Cruz | 2011-10-10 | ALCS | 2 | TEX | DET | W 7-3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.417 | 4.499 | 1.728 |
| 2 | Ben Francisco | 2011-10-04 | NLDS | 3 | PHI | STL | W 3-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.407 | 2.687 | 2.960 |
| 3 | Ryan Howard | 2011-10-01 | NLDS | 1 | PHI | STL | W 11-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.420 | 1.931 | 1.134 |
| 4 | Bengie Molina | 2010-10-19 | ALCS | 4 | TEX | NYY | W 10-3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.508 | 3.269 | 1.108 |
| 5 | Eric Hinske | 2010-10-10 | NLDS | 3 | ATL | SFG | L 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.557 | 1.747 | 3.330 |
| 6 | Buster Posey | 2010-10-10 | NLDS | 3 | SFG | ATL | W 3-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.415 | 1.576 | 1.746 |
| 7 | Pedro Feliz | 2009-11-01 | WS | 4 | PHI | NYY | L 4-7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.484 | 2.024 | 1.185 |
| 8 | Jimmy Rollins | 2009-10-19 | NLCS | 4 | PHI | LAD | W 5-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.754 | 1.635 | 2.368 |
| 9 | Jeff Mathis | 2009-10-19 | ALCS | 3 | LAA | NYY | W 5-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.604 | 1.724 | 2.320 |
| 10 | Carlos Gonzalez | 2009-10-11 | NLDS | 3 | COL | PHI | L 5-6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.439 | 2.139 | 2.013 |
| 11 | Vladimir Guerrero | 2009-10-11 | ALDS | 3 | LAA | BOS | W 7-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.601 | 1.704 | 2.678 |
| 12 | Alex Rodriguez | 2009-10-09 | ALDS | 2 | NYY | MIN | W 4-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.578 | 2.216 | 1.977 |
Ryan Howard has the best game so far in 2011.
October 11th, 2011 at 9:52 am
While Cruz hit the first official grand slam to ever finish a postseason game, it is in fact the second time that a player hit a "home run" with the bases loaded in the bottom half of an extra inning of a tied postseason game. Robin Ventura did so in game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, but of course he never made it past 1st base as he was mobbed by his teammates and it was officially scored a single. Had he been able to round the bases, he would have had the 1st postseason walk-off grand slam.
October 11th, 2011 at 10:09 am
I well remember Cruz's homer, since it was at the expense of my team, the Braves. What now occurs to me that I don't remember, is - what if the base runners on first and second both crossed the plate, do those 2 extra runs not count unless the batter also crosses the plate? So is the real principle a matter of how many touched home, or how far the batter progressed around the bases?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:36 am
What is the most amount of runs a home team has ever scored in extra innings? Obviously, four is the limit for one inning when still tied. But, theoretically, they could score infinite runs if they were trailing and came back, especially since this can happen in multiple innings. What is the max?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Regarding Ventura, I actually watched to see if Cruz made it all the way home. The mosh pit was extra large and boisterous and it wasn't clear he was going to get there. I thought we might be seeing another grand-slam single!
October 11th, 2011 at 11:42 am
@4, BSK:
If Cruz had not be able to touch home plate, but had touched all three bases, would that have been the first "Grand Slam Triple"?
October 11th, 2011 at 11:49 am
I don't think Chris Chambliss ever touched home plate when he hit his walk-off home run in the 1976 AL championship series in 1976.
October 11th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Wow, Joe Carter is the only one to hit his home run while his team were behind, now that's clutch; Joe Carter for the Hall of Fame!
October 11th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
@7, Luis:
Even an ardent Jays fan like myself wouldn't put Joe in the Hall.
On the other hand, I think the Hall should have a section for Outstanding Plays which honours players for one-time-only significant and/or unusual plays.
October 11th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Richard/6, I believe Chambliss returned to the field later to make sure he touched the plate. (Officially I don't think that would count, but it's a fun story.)
October 11th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
I'm sure Luis is joking since we (and many other baseball sites) so often rail against Carter's enshrinement.
October 11th, 2011 at 1:24 pm
BSK @3: "What is the most amount of runs a home team has ever scored in extra innings?"
The topic was covered in this B-Ref blog entry: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6520
October 11th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Thanks, Kahuna. I actually asked the same question then that I did now! At least I'm consistent!
I still haven't seen the specific answer, namely what is the most total runs scored by a home team in extra innings. No idea how to search for that, but I'll try.
October 11th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
here's what i would love. real time WPA. the ultimate would be to have the WPA showing on the TV screen next to where they show balls and strikes. that's probably a long ways off. but it'd be cool if there was an interactive database that had a simple interface. HINT HINT. Type in the current score, inning, runners on, and number of outs, and then click: you are given the current WPA. Or a more complex system in which I can enter each play as it occurs, and see the WPA change along with the game.
October 11th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
ESPN's game cast gives you the current WPA. What I'd really like is the current WPA as well as the LI, and a reasonable range of WPA outcomes--for example what happens if the current batter homers, vs grounds into double play...in real time.
October 11th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
@6 and 9
The story I remember reading (in one of Luciano's books) was that by the time Chambliss rounded third base, home plate was already gone. In the clubhouse, during the celebration, someone (Billy Martin I think) asked if he remembered to touch home plate. When Chambliss responded that he didn't because there was no home plate to touch, there was a slight panic. Chambliss then returned to the field and touched the dirt where home plate had been.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:44 pm
@8/ bluejaysstatsgeek -
@7, Luis: "...On the other hand, I think the Hall should have a section for Outstanding Plays which honours players for one-time-only significant and/or unusual plays."
bluejaysstatsgeek -
The HOF does have a section for this, it's called "the _rest_ of the HOF museum (besides the room with the HOF plaques)". OK, I am being facetious, but there are countless displays in the HOFof the sort that Joe Carter's famous HR would fit into; historical team moments; historical WS moments, etc...
As for Carter's HOF case, unless we go at least 30-deep at every position, he is not a serious candidate. No need to bash him, as he was a pretty good player for a number of years, but the HOF would need a whole new wing for plaques, if they inducted everyone who was at least as good as him.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
it'd be cool if there was an interactive database that had a simple interface. HINT HINT. Type in the current score, inning, runners on, and number of outs, and then click: you are given the current WPA.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/other/wpa_inquirer.php
October 11th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
@14, "for example what happens if the current batter homers, vs grounds into double play"
This is basically what the Leverage Index does, except it only uses a single that advances all runners 2 bases and then compares that to an out, I think. I always thought there should also be a HR leverage index.
Another thing I would like to see are the RE24 recalculated by removing ALL innings with a HR at any time. I think it show that bunting starts to look a lot better if you have guys coming up without a lot of power or you don't want to have to rely on a HR to score your runs.
October 11th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
@ 11 KT & @ 12 BSK
Just recently in the Diamond Backs vs Dodgers in the next to the last game of the season.
It was 1-1 score. Dodgers scored 2 in 10th.
D-Backs tied it with 2 then Roberts it a grand Slam.
Box of the game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI201109270.shtml
So that's 6 runs in the bottom half of an extra inning game.
And as BSK linked, 6 has been done before.
Don't know if there has been more than 6.
Somebody will find a way to search for it, or Sean will give us more search tools.
October 11th, 2011 at 9:51 pm
@17, JT -- Many thanks for that link!
October 11th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
@12 BSK, @19 Mike: 6 must be the record for a home team, because the record for both teams combined is 13
http://books.google.com/books?id=RQtjqXmdFOsC&pg=PA25&lpg=PA25&dq=%22most+runs+scored+in+bottom+of+extra+inning%22&source=bl&ots=gb9ExAvATw&sig=2Ca2ivl9L69yBg3CSFDQS04A1cY&hl=en&ei=bPiUTuDHL8Lg0QHw1qnFBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CFUQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q&f=false
October 11th, 2011 at 10:30 pm
...though I guess that wouldn't rule out a 3 or 4 run deficit followed by a 7-run frame
October 12th, 2011 at 10:29 pm
OK guys, Nelson Cruz hit another 11th inning HR to become the first to hit 2 extra inning HRs in a postseason series. Is he also the CAREER record holder?
October 12th, 2011 at 10:56 pm
I have heard three others have hit 2 or more career extra inning postseason HRs. Bernie Williams and David Ortiz are two...who is the other?
October 12th, 2011 at 10:57 pm
@23 Nick C
Don't know offhand, but if you narrow the category to number of 3-run HRs in the 11th inning of an LCS, then no doubt.
Check out his cumulative stats so far through the first four gms...while his BA is a solid .357, his 1.724 OPS (.438/1.286) is pretty sick.
Make me wonder which players have the highest OPS for an LCS, minimum 4 gms?
October 12th, 2011 at 11:02 pm
Wait scratch that...his other HR was a granny...never mind.
Still...anybody have a link to highest OPS for LCS minimum 4 gms...?
October 12th, 2011 at 11:52 pm
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/LCS_batting.shtml
Minimum 4 games, Lloyd McClendon 1992, 1.932
October 13th, 2011 at 12:28 am
@ Johnny Twisto
Thanks again...you linked me there before (forgot). Will favorite it this time.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:35 pm
Before this thread dies, I would appreciate any input on questions I raised earlier (#2):
"What now occurs to me that I don't remember, is - what if the base runners on first and second both crossed the plate, do those 2 extra runs not count unless the batter also crosses the plate? So is the real principle a matter of how many touched home, or how far the batter progressed around the bases?"
October 14th, 2011 at 12:48 am
Ken, I think the rule is that the first run to take the lead ends the game, unless it is a home run over the fence. Since Ventura never got past first, he was credited with only a single and therefore just the one run needed to win the game counted. I think only one run would have counted unless Ventura crossed home plate.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN199910170.shtml