Aaron Harang’s weird 2008
Posted by Andy on July 27, 2009
Last season, Aaron Harang went 6-17 despite a 94 ERA+, meaning an ERA that was just a little below average.
Here are the lowest win totals in a season in which a guy had 17 or more losses but also an ERA+ of 94 or better:
Cnt Player **W** L ERA+ Year Age Tm Lg G GS CG SHO GF W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str +----+-----------------+------+--+----+----+---+---+--+---+---+--+---+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+----+ 1 Dutch Henry 2 17 94 1930 28 CHW AL 35 16 4 0 12 .105 0 155 211 116 84 48 35 4.88 12 706 4 0 2 0 2 Eddie Smith 4 17 120 1937 23 PHA AL 38 23 14 1 11 .190 5 196.2 178 100 86 90 79 3.94 18 847 4 0 2 0 3 Scott Perry 4 17 95 1919 28 PHA AL 25 21 12 0 3 .190 1 183.2 193 92 73 72 38 3.58 4 758 2 1 4 0 4 Frank Allen 4 18 116 1913 24 BRO NL 34 25 11 0 3 .182 2 174.2 144 75 55 81 82 2.83 6 736 10 0 4 0 5 Jim Pastorius 4 20 95 1908 26 BRO NL 28 25 16 2 3 .167 0 213.2 171 88 58 74 54 2.44 5 814 7 0 6 0 6 Virgil Trucks 5 19 95 1952 35 DET AL 35 29 8 3 5 .208 1 197 190 99 87 82 129 3.97 12 858 7 1 5 0 7 Rollie Naylor 5 18 102 1919 27 PHA AL 31 23 17 0 5 .217 0 204.2 210 109 76 64 68 3.34 2 819 4 0 2 0 8 Aaron Harang 6 17 94 2008 30 CIN NL 30 29 1 1 0 .261 0 184.1 205 104 98 50 153 4.78 35 793 723 52 3 5 2 11 7 12 17 4 0 0 2 .284 .329 .509 .838 118 3046 2001 9 Galen Cisco 6 19 98 1964 28 NYM NL 36 25 5 2 5 .240 0 191.2 182 85 77 54 78 3.62 17 787 712 35 6 4 6 10 5 21 8 11 1 0 5 .256 .311 .393 .704 107 10 Johnny Lindell 6 17 95 1953 36 TOT NL 32 26 15 1 4 .261 0 199 195 122 103 139 118 4.66 17 910 6 0 11 0 11 Paul Minner 6 17 107 1951 27 CHC NL 33 28 14 3 3 .261 1 201.2 219 97 85 64 68 3.79 20 861 0 1 5 0 12 Howie Fox 6 19 105 1949 28 CIN NL 38 30 9 0 6 .240 0 215 221 120 95 77 60 3.98 13 928 4 1 2 0 13 Jack Russell 6 18 108 1929 23 BOS AL 35 32 13 0 3 .250 0 227.1 263 132 99 40 37 3.92 12 978 3 0 1 0 14 Joe Oeschger 6 18 98 1918 26 PHI NL 30 23 13 2 7 .250 3 184 159 87 62 83 60 3.03 3 778 7 0 4 0 15 Elmer Jacobs 6 19 101 1917 24 PIT NL 38 25 10 1 12 .240 2 227.1 214 87 71 76 58 2.81 3 941 5 2 1 0 16 Walt Leverenz 6 17 114 1913 24 SLB AL 30 27 13 2 2 .261 1 202.2 159 81 58 89 87 2.58 3 806 10 0 4 0 17 Cy Falkenberg 6 17 103 1907 26 WSH AL 32 24 17 1 4 .261 1 233.2 195 105 61 77 108 2.35 0 976 8 0 13 0
He's in some pretty rare company there and although many of these pitchers are not all that famous we do see Virgil Trucks on there. Trucks won 13 games in the previous season and 20 games in the following one.
If we restrict the above list to just the last 2o years, there are just 14 seasons that qualify:
Cnt Player **W** L ERA+ Year Age Tm Lg G GS CG SHO GF W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str +----+-----------------+------+--+----+----+---+---+--+---+---+--+---+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+----+ 1 Aaron Harang 6 17 94 2008 30 CIN NL 30 29 1 1 0 .261 0 184.1 205 104 98 50 153 4.78 35 793 723 52 3 5 2 11 7 12 17 4 0 0 2 .284 .329 .509 .838 118 3046 2001 2 Rich Robertson 7 17 100 1996 27 MIN AL 36 31 5 3 1 .292 0 186.1 197 113 106 116 114 5.12 22 853 722 32 5 2 9 2 4 23 15 8 1 0 7 .273 .378 .422 .800 102 3 Matt Young 8 18 113 1990 31 SEA AL 34 33 7 1 0 .308 0 225.1 198 106 88 107 176 3.51 15 963 836 25 3 7 6 7 7 27 20 14 3 0 16 .237 .325 .328 .653 82 4 Albie Lopez 9 19 95 2001 29 TOT ML 33 33 3 3 0 .321 0 205.2 226 123 110 75 136 4.81 26 896 804 48 2 3 4 8 5 20 20 9 3 1 2 .281 .343 .443 .786 105 3191 2019 5 Doug Drabek 9 18 103 1993 30 HOU NL 34 34 7 2 0 .333 0 237.2 242 108 100 60 157 3.79 18 991 906 41 4 12 3 14 8 18 28 7 0 0 12 .267 .312 .381 .693 93 6 Jack Armstrong 9 17 95 1993 28 FLA NL 36 33 0 0 2 .346 0 196.1 210 105 98 78 118 4.49 29 879 776 35 6 6 7 8 10 9 18 3 2 2 7 .271 .339 .443 .782 110 7 Tim Leary 9 19 97 1990 31 NYY AL 31 31 6 1 0 .321 0 208 202 105 95 78 138 4.11 18 881 785 39 1 1 7 7 4 20 18 9 6 0 23 .257 .328 .378 .706 97 8 Kirk McCaskill 10 19 96 1991 30 CAL AL 30 30 1 0 0 .345 0 177.2 193 93 84 66 71 4.26 19 762 681 36 5 1 3 6 6 22 8 6 1 0 6 .283 .347 .435 .782 116 9 Joe Magrane 10 17 106 1990 25 STL NL 31 31 3 2 0 .370 0 203.1 204 86 81 59 100 3.59 10 855 773 36 9 7 8 8 6 15 21 16 6 1 11 .264 .320 .373 .693 96 10 Greg Harris 11 17 94 1993 29 TOT NL 35 35 4 0 0 .393 0 225.1 239 127 115 69 123 4.59 33 975 881 45 9 9 7 14 4 10 22 10 2 6 6 .271 .328 .455 .783 107 11 Steve Parris 12 17 98 2000 32 CIN NL 33 33 0 0 0 .414 0 192.2 227 109 103 71 117 4.81 30 861 772 57 7 5 4 10 3 18 12 3 1 1 9 .294 .355 .503 .858 117 3308 2026 12 Darryl Kile 13 17 99 1998 29 COL NL 36 35 4 1 1 .433 0 230.1 257 141 133 96 158 5.20 28 1020 894 47 7 4 7 15 8 23 15 5 0 0 12 .287 .358 .450 .808 100 13 Todd Stottlemyre 13 17 95 1990 25 TOR AL 33 33 4 0 0 .433 0 203 214 101 98 69 115 4.34 18 866 781 36 8 4 8 3 5 13 23 13 1 1 6 .274 .337 .410 .747 103 14 Frank Viola 13 17 106 1989 29 TOT ML 36 36 9 2 0 .433 0 261 246 115 106 74 211 3.66 22 1082 986 43 6 4 4 12 6 16 16 11 5 1 8 .249 .303 .372 .675 89
This is a pretty interesting group. For the most part, these guys all had decent-or-better major league careers. That's not too surprising as earning a 94 ERA+ while pitching enough games to lose 17 decisions means you must be at least pretty decent.
As of this writing, Harang isn't fairing much better in 2009. So far he has an ERA+ of 106 but a record of just 5-10. Weird.
July 27th, 2009 at 9:31 am
This brings to mind Nolan Ryan's 1987 season: 8-16 with a league-leading ERA+ of 142. Ryan should've won the Cy Young award that year, and you can even make a case that it was his best season: he had the best strikeout rate of his career to go along with one of his lowest walk rates--good enough to lead the league in K/BB ratio (the only time he ever did that). It was one of only two times he led the league in ERA+ (the other coming in the strike-shortened '81 season).
July 27th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Some more numbers from Ryan's '87 season: he led the league in OPS against (.576) and game-score average (61), and tied for the league lead in quality starts (25) and quality-start percentage (74%, the best of his career). His neutralized W/L record (15-8, second-best of his career) is nearly the reverse of his actual record. Best season ever by a pitcher who lost twice as many games as he won?
Incidentally, Orel Hershiser also had a very good 16-loss season in 1987, sporting an ERA+ of 131 (third in the NL). Orel did, however, manage 16 wins to go with his losses.
July 27th, 2009 at 11:23 am
That also brings to mind Randy Johnson’s 2004 season. Though he did have a winning record (16-14), he lost the Cy Young award to Roger Clemens, despite leading the league in ERA+ (177, Clemens’ 146 was 5th), WHIP (0.90, Clemens’ 1.16 was 8th), H/9IP (6.48, Clemens’ 7.10 was 4th), and strikeouts (290, Clemens’ 218 was 5th). The Unit also had a lower ERA (2.60, 2nd to 2.98, 5th), fewer BB/9IP (1.6, 4th; Clemens’ 3.3 was not in the top 10), a higher K/9IP (10.62, 2nd to 9.15, 7th), a better K/BB ratio (6.59, 2nd, Clemens’ 2.76 was not in the top 10), more innings pitched (245.2, 2nd in NL to 214.1, 8th), more games started (35, tied for 1st, Clemens’ 33 was not in top 10), more complete games (4, tied for 4th, Clemens had none), and more shutouts (2, tied for 3rd, Clemens had none). The main thing Clemens had going for him was an 18-4 record vs. a 16-14 record. While both pitchers were the benefactors of 3 “cheap wins”, Johnson was the victim of a league leading (tie) 9 “tough losses” to Clemens’ 2.
I did an analysis back then, putting Johnson’s, Clemens’, Jason Schmidt’s, and Carlos Zambrano’s performances in the context of Arizona’s, Houston’s, San Francisco’s and Chicago Cubs’ run support.
With Arizona’s run support:
Johnson: 16-14 (most W)
Clemens: 15-10 (best WL%)
Schmidt: 14-15
Zambrano: 14-11
With Hoston’s run support:
Johnson: 19-8 (most W, tied)
Clemens: 18-4 (best WL%)
Schmidt: 19-6 (most W, tied)
Zambrano: 17-6
With San Francisco’s run support:
Johnson: 20-8 (most W)
Clemens: 14-8
Schmidt: 18-7 (best WL%)
Zambrano: 15-9
With Chicago’s run support:
Johnson: 19-9 (most W)
Clemens: 16-7 (best WL%)
Schmidt: 16-9
Zambrano: 16-8
It is clear that with equivalent run support, Johnson would have wound up with more wins than Clemens, and presumably the Cy Young award. Clemens still finishes with a better win-loss percentage, but I think that the greater win total – along with Johnson’s lead in virtually every other category – would have given the award to the Unit.
July 27th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Of course, the following season Clemens had a 1.87 ERA and probably deserved the CYA, but didn't get it because his record was just 13-8. He had historically bad run support that season. I think the Astros may have been shut out something like 10 times when he started. If Chris J. reads this, he probably has the details.
Clemens did win some CYAs he probably didn't deserve, but he also lost some he probably should have won (1990 also comes to mind).
July 27th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
I completely agree, JohnnyTwisto. I had both Clemens and Johnson on my fantasy team those years, and I felt that essentially Chris Carpenter stole a Cy Young from Johnson. (Carpenter was the one who took the CY over Clemens in 2005). Clemens was a bit light in innings in 2005; only 211.1 in 32 starts, Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis (the two ahead of Clemens) had 30.1 and 25 more innings in addition to 20+ wins each.
July 27th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
The really cool thing about the Virgil Trucks 5-and-19 season is that two of those 5 wins were no-hitters.
Oeschger was, of course, one of the pitchers who went 26 innings in a game in 1920.
July 27th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Maybe also worth mentioning is Anthony Young's 1993 season: 1-and-16, ERA+ = 107.
July 27th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
I always found interesting the comparison of Anthony Young and Bob Wickman, both pitching in NY at the same time.