Bobby Abreu’s RBI streak
Posted by Andy on November 6, 2009
Bobby Abreu re-signed with the Angels for 2 years yesterday,which surprised me. He had a nice year for a 35-year-old guy and I thought would have wanted to test the open market. Of course, he did that last year after having a good year and had to wait until just before spring training to get signed. Maybe he was happy to jump at a 2-year contract offer.
Anyway, most people know that he's got a long active streak of 100-RBI seasons. Here are the guys with the most 100-RBI seasons in the last 7 years:
From To Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+ Alex Rodriguez 2003 2009 27-33 7 Ind. Seasons Albert Pujols 2003 2009 23-29 7 Ind. Seasons Bobby Abreu 2003 2009 29-35 7 Ind. Seasons Mark Teixeira 2004 2009 24-29 6 Ind. Seasons Miguel Cabrera 2004 2009 21-26 6 Ind. Seasons Carlos Lee 2003 2009 27-33 6 Ind. Seasons
Only Abreu, A-rod, and Phat Albert have 100-RBI seasons each year.
The PI doesn't yet enable us to search for seasonal streaks, although I am hoping that this is coming down the pike. (I can tell you for sure that many significant additions are in fact coming down the pike, as I have seen the beta of the new version...) I don't know how many players have had 7-season 100-RBI streaks, but it's probably been done a fair amount.
Anyway, the last time Abreu didn't have 100 RBI in a season was 2002, but check out his stats that year. He played in 157 games, had 685 plate appearances, batted .308, slugged .521, and had an OPS+ of 151 (a career best.) And yet, he totaled only 85 RBI. Isn't that crazy? If he got 100 RBI that year, he'd have a streak of 9 such seasons going into next year.
Check out the guys over the last 20 seasons to have at least 600 PAs and an OPS+ of 150 or better but not reach 100 RBI:
Cnt Player Year OPS+ RBI PA Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +----+-----------------+----+----+---+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+ 1 Joe Mauer 2009 177 96 606 26 MIN AL 138 523 94 191 30 1 28 76 14 63 2 0 5 13 4 1 .365 .444 .587 1.031 *2D 2 Adrian Gonzalez 2009 163 99 681 27 SDP NL 160 552 90 153 27 2 40 119 22 109 5 1 4 23 1 1 .277 .407 .551 .958 *3/D 3 Todd Helton 2004 165 96 683 30 COL NL 154 547 115 190 49 2 32 127 19 72 3 0 6 12 3 0 .347 .469 .620 1.089 *3 4 J.D. Drew 2004 157 93 645 28 ATL NL 145 518 118 158 28 8 31 118 2 116 5 1 3 7 12 3 .305 .436 .569 1.005 *9/8D 5 Bobby Abreu 2002 151 85 685 28 PHI NL 157 572 102 176 50 6 20 104 9 117 3 0 6 11 31 12 .308 .413 .521 .934 *98 6 Ryan Klesko 2002 152 95 625 31 SDP NL 146 540 90 162 39 1 29 76 11 86 4 1 4 7 6 2 .300 .388 .537 .925 *39/D 7 Brian Giles 2001 150 95 674 30 PIT NL 160 576 116 178 37 7 37 90 14 67 4 0 4 10 13 6 .309 .404 .590 .994 *78 8 Edgar Martinez 1999 152 86 608 36 SEA AL 142 502 86 169 35 1 24 97 6 99 6 0 3 12 7 2 .337 .447 .554 1.001 *D/3 9 John Olerud 1998 163 93 665 29 NYM NL 160 557 91 197 36 4 22 96 11 73 4 1 7 15 2 2 .354 .447 .551 .998 *3 10 Mo Vaughn 1997 152 96 628 29 BOS AL 141 527 91 166 24 0 35 86 17 154 12 0 3 10 2 2 .315 .420 .560 .980 *3/D 11 Barry Larkin 1996 154 89 627 32 CIN NL 152 517 117 154 32 4 33 96 3 52 7 0 7 20 36 10 .298 .410 .567 .977 *6 12 Bobby Bonilla 1995 151 99 614 32 TOT ML 141 554 96 182 37 8 28 54 10 79 2 0 4 22 0 5 .329 .388 .576 .964 5973 13 Andy Van Slyke 1992 151 89 685 31 PIT NL 154 614 103 199 45 12 14 58 4 99 4 0 9 9 12 3 .324 .381 .505 .886 *8 14 John Kruk 1992 150 70 607 31 PHI NL 144 507 86 164 30 4 10 92 8 88 1 0 7 11 3 5 .323 .423 .458 .881 *39/7 15 Will Clark 1992 150 73 601 28 SFG NL 144 513 69 154 40 1 16 73 23 82 4 0 11 5 12 7 .300 .384 .476 .860 *3 16 Rafael Palmeiro 1991 155 88 714 26 TEX AL 159 631 115 203 49 3 26 68 10 72 6 2 7 17 4 3 .322 .389 .532 .921 *3/D 17 George Brett 1990 153 87 607 37 KCR AL 142 544 82 179 45 7 14 56 14 63 0 0 7 18 9 2 .329 .387 .515 .902 *3D/975 18 Fred McGriff 1990 153 88 658 26 TOR AL 153 557 91 167 21 1 35 94 12 108 2 1 4 7 5 3 .300 .400 .530 .930 *3/D 19 Eddie Murray 1990 158 95 645 34 LAD NL 155 558 96 184 22 3 26 82 21 64 1 0 4 19 8 5 .330 .414 .520 .934 *3
Most of these guys either had fewer PAs than Abreu's 685 or got a lot closer to 100 RBI.
So why did Abreu fall short of 100 RBI in 2002? The Phillies were an average team that year with a record of 80-81. Abreu batted 3rd almost the entire season except for a stretch where he hit 4th. It would seem that he was in good position to drive in 100 runs.
It seems to me that the key is the guys who were hitting in front of him. Jimmy Rollins hit 1st or 2nd almost the entire year but managed only a .306 OBP, a pathetic value for a leadoff guy and Rollins' worst until this year's abysmal .296 OBP. The guy hitting second was often Doug Glanville, he of the .292 OBP that season.
Check out Abreu's splits for the last 9 seasons batting with runners on base:
| I | Year | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 155 | 321 | 251 | 70 | 22 | 0 | 13 | 92 | .279 | .408 | .522 | .930 | |
| 2002 | 145 | 313 | 251 | 81 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 72 | .323 | .438 | .510 | .948 | |
| 2003 | 149 | 325 | 261 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 92 | .360 | .465 | .559 | 1.024 | |
| 2004 | 145 | 326 | 255 | 85 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 88 | .333 | .457 | .584 | 1.041 | |
| 2005 | 152 | 359 | 285 | 87 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 92 | .305 | .426 | .505 | .931 | |
| 2006 | 145 | 343 | 265 | 94 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 105 | .355 | .472 | .596 | 1.068 | |
| 2007 | 148 | 363 | 313 | 86 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 91 | .275 | .355 | .425 | .780 | |
| 2008 | 144 | 330 | 290 | 92 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 93 | .317 | .397 | .541 | .938 | |
| 2009 | 139 | 332 | 269 | 91 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 93 | .338 | .437 | .465 | .901 | |
| Career Total | 1782 | 3986 | 3232 | 1049 | 240 | 19 | 126 | 1057 | .325 | .433 | .528 | .960 |
Yeah, it looks like Rollins and Glanville not getting on base too much was the difference. In 2002 Abreu had an average number of games with runners on base (145) but the fewest total plate appearances (313). He also had a low total of homers with runners on base (7) despite having an average year in total number of homers (20, not visible in the chart above.) This was a contributing cause to his low RBI total.
In the 8 years above other than 2002, Abreu averaged 93 RBI while hitting with runners on, getting the rest of his RBI each season on solo homers. In 2002, though, he got just 72 RBI with runners on despite having BA, OBP, and SLG just about smack dab on his averages for his entire career in that situation. Had he gotton just his average 93, he would have been over 100 RBI for the year.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Teixeira and Cabrera were both rookies in 2003.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:28 am
Oh yeah. Fixed that, thanks.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Pablo Sandoval had an OPS+ of 144 and drove in 83 runs this year. Same problem as Abreu's in 2002.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
when folks say "many significant additions are in fact coming" i wonder what their definition of "significant" is.
Pitching charts with dots is not significant. But heaps of additions to the PI? That's something!
November 6th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
It ain't pitching charts with dots. I don't know what Sean wants discussed or what will be in the official release but so far I've seen much greater flexibility in searches, as well as new types of searching and sorting. Much more specific searching will be available, and a vastly improved ability to sort and total results.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
are we talking next season or between seasons for the new stuff?
November 6th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
I don't know Sean's plans for timing but the stuff I've seen is pretty far along and I assume will be launched in time for the start of next season (probably before if I had to guess.)
November 7th, 2009 at 1:13 am
I did it all by hand today...
Rodriguez, Pujols and Abreu join only 16 other guys with 7 or more consecutive 100 RBI seasons. Surprisingly, the first to do it (7 consecutive 100 RBI seasons) was Harry Heilmann, and the 2nd to do it was Al Simmons - *then* came Ruth and Gehrig who did it simultaneously. And then Foxx and Ott simultaneously, then DiMaggio, then Ted Williams, then Hodges, then Mays...then there was a 30 year drought until Frank Thomas, then Belle, then Palmiero and Sosa simultaneously, then Chipper Jones, then Manny Ramirez, then Alex Rodriguez, Pujols and Abreu simultaneously.
That's what it looks like chronologically. Here's what it looks like by longest streak:
*13, Gehrig (1926-1938)
*13, Foxx (1929-1941)
*11, Simmons (1924-1934)
*9, Belle (1992-2000)
*9, Palmiero (1995-2003)
*9, Sosa (1995-2003)
*9, Ramirez (1998-2006)
*8, Ruth (1926-1933)
*8, Ott (1929-1936)
*8, Williams (1939-1942; 1946-1949)
*8, Mays (1959-1966)
*8, Thomas (1991-1998)
*8, Jones (1996-2003)
*7, Heilmann (1923-1929)
*7, DiMaggio (1936-1942)
*7, Hodges (1949-1955)
*7, Rodriguez (2003-present)
*7, Abreu (2003-present)
*7, Pujols (2003-present)
November 7th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Isn't A-Rod now up to 12 consecutive 100 or more RBI seasons, going back to 1998? Also Pujols is up to 9 in a row -- every season he has been in the majors. Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia (CBE) is still ahead of PI in this particular function -- you can do currently searches for season streaks with CBE. I'm looking forward to that function being added on PI! Bob Johnson also had 7 years in a row for the A's in the 1930s into the 1940s. And Hugh Duffy had 7 years in a row for the Braves franchise (then known as the Boston Beaneaters) at the end of the 19th century. Info generated with CBE.
November 7th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
thanks! i didn't even look at Arod or Pujols. silly me. and thanks for the two I missed. So here's the real deal:
*13, Gehrig (1926-1938)
*13, Foxx (1929-1941)
*12, Rodriguez (1998-present)
*11, Simmons (1924-1934)
*9, Belle (1992-2000)
*9, Palmiero (1995-2003)
*9, Sosa (1995-2003)
*9, Ramirez (1998-2006)
*9, Pujols (2001-present)
*8, Ruth (1926-1933)
*8, Ott (1929-1936)
*8, Williams (1939-1942; 1946-1949)
*8, Mays (1959-1966)
*8, Thomas (1991-1998)
*8, Jones (1996-2003)
*7, Duffy (1893-1899)
*7, Heilmann (1923-1929)
*7, Johnson (1935-1941)
*7, DiMaggio (1936-1942)
*7, Hodges (1949-1955)
*7, Abreu (2003-present)
November 8th, 2009 at 7:00 am
I led you astray on that one, kingturtle, by this post making it sound like all 3 guys I mentioned had 7-season streaks. It's amazing how close A-rod came to falling off this list except for that huge game he had at the end of the season.
Barring injury, he'll become a co-leader on this list next season.
November 8th, 2009 at 7:13 am
you can say:
baseball is an individual performance sport but it's statistics are very team (and situationally) dependant.
put a few bobby bonds, ricky hendersons, and ichiros in front of some good 3-4-5 hitters and POW!
this is why everybody should marvel at Earnie Banks stats and MVP trophies.
there are, without a doubt, plenty more guys stuck in olden philly, brown's and/or royals' uniforms that would be HoFers if they were lucky enuf to have been pinstriped.
and BTW, thanks, Mr. Steinbrenner.
November 8th, 2009 at 11:59 am
From PI, the five highest MLB career RBI totals through a player's age 33 season:
Foxx 1,849
Gehrig 1,721
A-Rod 1,706
Ott 1,648
Aaron 1,541
Most RBI age 34 season and after:
Cap Anson 1,197
Ruth 806
Barry Bonds 780
Edgar Martinez 777
Andres Galarraga 770
A-Rod is currently 21st on the all-time career RBI list with 1,706, having passed both Reggie Jackson (1,702) and Frank Thomas (1,704) on that 7-RBI final day of the regular season.
November 8th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Cap Anson leads so many of these "after age X" lists because of some phenomenal seasons he had late in his career.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ansonca01.shtml
He had 120 RBI in 136 games at age 39, and 99 RBI in 83 games at age 42, not to mention 90 RBI in 108 games at age 44.
Those years, of course, were during a very-scoring era in baseball (the 1890s at least, not sure how far it extended before and after.)
November 8th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Explain this to me...Anson's actual RBI total was 2076 but his neutralized RBI total is, gulp, 2426! I had assumed his neutralized total would be a lot lower than his actual total. A total of 2426 would put him in first place over Hank Aaron by a margin of more than 100.
November 8th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Tell me how the neutralized total is computed, and I may be able to tell you why Anson is at 2426.
November 8th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
The explanation for neutralized stats is here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/equiv_stats.shtml
One thing, right away, is that everything is adjusted to 162-game seasons. So that alone would bump Anson from 2076 to 2183 adjusting for the number of games in a year.
November 8th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
Anson is adjusted way above 162 games. Check out his Neutralized line for 1872.
G: 226
PA: 936
He has a similar line for 1875 and other years.
Neutralizing his games played increases his career PA from 11,319 to 17,769 (~57%).
Given that, the 17% jump in his RBI is not so astonishing.
Now the question is, why did he have such a large number of adjusted games/PAs?
November 8th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
My guess is that his game totals are compared to the league average. During the 1800's teams folded regularly mid-season and therefore the league average games per team was much lower than the games Anson actually played. Anson could have easily played 50% more games than the average team and then be credited with 162*1.5= 243 games.
I have never neutralized a stat and I may be way off. However, if I am right, it might make more sense to adjust the games of players from the 1800's against their own teams and not the league average.