Adam Dunn: Strawberry or Mantle?
Posted by Andy on January 20, 2008
Adam Dunn has had an awesome start to his career.
Here are all the players since 1901 to start their first 7 years with at least 200 HR and 50 SB:
Cnt Player Year HR SB From To Ages G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions Teams +----+-----------------+----+---+----+----+----+-----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------+ 1 Adam Dunn 2007 238 57 2001 2007 21-27 973 4098 3354 620 833 178 8 572 675 68 1092 51 2 16 50 18 .248 .381 .519 .900 *73/9D CIN 2 Vladimir Guerrero 2002 209 114 1996 2002 20-26 892 3753 3369 570 1085 206 31 623 318 108 431 44 0 22 104 66 .322 .386 .588 .974 *9/8D MON 3 Jose Canseco 1991 209 122 1985 1991 20-26 853 3664 3216 540 867 156 8 647 370 33 870 36 1 41 73 46 .270 .348 .518 .866 *97D/8 OAK 4 Darryl Strawberry 1989 215 176 1983 1989 21-27 957 3928 3361 570 875 169 29 625 510 93 850 22 1 34 40 67 .260 .358 .520 .878 *9/87 NYM 5 Orlando Cepeda 1964 222 92 1958 1964 20-26 1062 4434 4095 646 1266 223 22 747 252 63 616 49 1 37 107 45 .309 .353 .537 .890 *37/95 SFG 6 Frank Robinson 1962 241 99 1956 1962 20-26 1050 4493 3895 752 1202 228 36 709 468 71 553 77 13 40 102 33 .309 .390 .571 .961 793/85 CIN 7 Willie Mays 1958 216 152 1951 1958 20-27 914 3981 3499 652 1111 161 74 605 440 60 377 12 1 29 78 49 .318 .393 .591 .984 *8 NYG-SFG 8 Mickey Mantle 1957 207 59 1951 1957 19-25 952 4116 3418 763 1080 164 49 669 670 35 653 5 9 14 26 19 .316 .427 .574 1.001 *89/645 NYY 9 Chuck Klein 1934 211 54 1928 1934 23-29 938 4192 3802 777 1340 273 52 807 344 0 305 10 36 0 9 0 .352 .408 .618 1.026 *97/8 PHI-CHC
When the worst player in your comparison group is Darryl Strawberry, you are doing mighty well.
Dunn has a 76% success rate at stolen bases, and 3 straight seasons (2005-2007) with exactly 40 home runs.
And how about this list: First 7 seasons, at least an OPS+ of 130, 1700 total bases, 700 runs created, and 600 walks:
Cnt Player Year OPS+ TB RC BB PA From To Ages G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions Teams +----+-----------------+----+----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------+ 1 Adam Dunn 2007 130 1741 710 675 4098 2001 2007 21-27 973 3354 620 833 178 8 238 572 68 1092 51 2 16 50 57 18 .248 .381 .519 .900 *73/9D CIN 2 Jeff Bagwell 1997 159 1959 840 627 4410 1991 1997 23-29 1008 3657 654 1112 246 20 187 724 97 689 64 3 59 95 109 40 .304 .409 .536 .945 *3/D9 HOU 3 Frank Thomas 1996 182 1970 924 770 4140 1990 1996 22-28 930 3291 675 1077 211 8 222 729 109 513 23 0 56 108 17 14 .327 .452 .599 1.051 *3D CHW 4 Barry Bonds 1992 147 1804 743 611 4255 1986 1992 21-27 1010 3584 672 984 220 36 176 556 113 590 20 3 37 45 251 72 .275 .380 .503 .883 *78/9 PIT 5 Wade Boggs 1988 151 1896 871 647 4629 1982 1988 24-30 1027 3913 710 1392 263 29 61 469 68 288 10 23 36 104 12 16 .356 .445 .485 .930 *5/3D7 BOS 6 Eddie Mathews 1958 150 2031 808 646 4457 1952 1958 20-26 1029 3752 703 1039 165 34 253 663 47 607 9 23 27 48 34 15 .277 .382 .541 .923 *5/7 BSN-MLN 7 Mickey Mantle 1957 174 1963 888 670 4116 1951 1957 19-25 952 3418 763 1080 164 49 207 669 35 653 5 9 14 26 59 19 .316 .427 .574 1.001 *89/645 NYY 8 Ralph Kiner 1952 159 2148 874 770 4557 1946 1952 23-29 1054 3765 727 1057 147 31 294 772 0 525 19 3 0 90 18 1 .281 .405 .571 .976 *7/83 PIT 9 Ted Williams 1948 196 2341 1137 939 4618 1939 1948 20-29 1029 3655 932 1294 275 53 222 879 0 328 19 5 0 77 15 12 .354 .488 .640 1.128 *79/1 BOS
Umm, gee--who is the stinker in this group? If Dunn has the career of any of the 8 other guys here, the Reds will be ecstatic.
January 20th, 2008 at 7:39 am
I think the first list is a better indicator because Dunn's numbers are similar to the player's listed. In the second list he is no where near the other players statistically.
January 20th, 2008 at 7:43 am
Definitely true. The second list is just interesting, but I don't expect Dunn to become Wade Boggs or Ted Williams, or even Frank Thomas. He's got more of a shot at Bagwell or Kiner, or even Mantle, though.
January 20th, 2008 at 8:35 am
It's incredible how much he strikes out though, nearly double than some of the other TTO guys on there
January 20th, 2008 at 9:06 am
If not for his three at-bats in 1993, Chipper Jones would have made both of these lists.
January 20th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Yeah, it would be nice if the PI could somehow exclude a first year that was just a momentary call-up. I'm sure there are other players who would make this list as well.
January 20th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Oh Adam Dunn. I love you.
January 21st, 2008 at 12:17 am
How are Dunn's 57 SBs in seven years even significant? 8 SBs per year (in reality 6, since a third of his SBs were in one season) from a 76% success rate amounts to roughly one, maybe two, bases above break-even.
I'm not knockin' Dunn - I like him too - but it's funny to see the love for him here, given the all the recent negative comments about McGwire (minus the SBs, he was Dunn through the first seven years of his career).
January 21st, 2008 at 8:25 am
gswitter--not bad points, but let me counter:
1) Nobody is looking at Dunn's SB totals and suggesting that he's a speed demon or that his stolen bases make a significant contribution (clearly they are worth a lot less than 40 HR...) To me, though, that many SB with such a high % success suggests he must be a pretty good baserunner, and have at least reasonably decent speed. Compare him to McGwire, who had 12 SB in his entire career, plus 8 CS (60% success rate), and as we know was slow as dirt and not a good baserunner. I think there is a distinct difference between the two players in that regard, and that if their power numbers ended up the same, Dunn would be a clearly more valuable player in the long haul.
2) Seven years is a lot. It's true that McGwire started off strong, averaging 36 HR in his first 6 yeas (let's ignore his cup of coffee in 1986 for this discussion.) But that included one dreadful year, 1991, where he slumped to a .201 average and had just 22 HR and 75 RBI in a full season. It also included two other seasons where he batted in the .230s and had an OBP in the .330s. (It's true that Dunn had one bad season in 2003 as well, although not nearly as bad as McGwire's '91.) Now if you add in the 7th season, 1993, McGwire got hurt and his totals suffer. As we know, McGwire did miss a lot of games in the second half of his career, and his body deteriorated quickly after age 35. My point in all this is that Dunn has been a LITTLE BIT better and a LITTLE BIT more resilient than McGwire so far, and to my mind gives him the potential to finish in a higher bracket than McGwire. Dunn's got a long way to go yet, though.