Which Daisuke will show up tonight?
Posted by Andy on June 2, 2010
Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches for the Red Sox tonight and everybody's wondering which guy will show up.
Will it be the guy who 1-hit the Phillies two starts ago or the guy who walked 8 in 4.2 innings the last time out?
Will it be the guy who had 9 K's, no walks, and 3 hits in 7 innings four starts ago or the guy who allowed 7 runs on 9 hits three starts ago?
Look at the game scores for all 79 of Matsuzaka's starts:
| Rk | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2008-08-29 | BOS | CHW | W 8-0 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 104 | 65 | 83 |
| 2 | 2007-07-03 | BOS | TBD | W 4-1 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 122 | 84 | 82 |
| 3 | 2010-05-22 | BOS | PHI | W 5-0 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 112 | 73 | 81 |
| 4 | 2007-06-27 | BOS | SEA | L 1-2 | GS-8 | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 113 | 77 | 79 |
| 5 | 2008-09-21 | BOS | TOR | W 3-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 109 | 69 | 77 |
| 6 | 2010-05-11 | BOS | TOR | W 6-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 106 | 71 | 76 |
| 7 | 2007-06-16 | BOS | SFG | W 1-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 112 | 66 | 76 |
| 8 | 2007-05-14 | BOS | DET | W 7-1 | CG 9 ,W | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 124 | 86 | 76 |
| 9 | 2008-04-30 | BOS | TOR | W 2-1 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 111 | 69 | 75 |
| 10 | 2008-04-01 | BOS | OAK | W 2-1 | GS-7 ,W | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 96 | 61 | 75 |
| 11 | 2008-08-09 | BOS | CHW | W 6-2 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 106 | 65 | 71 |
| 12 | 2007-07-24 | BOS | CLE | W 1-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 99 | 60 | 71 |
| 13 | 2007-04-05 | BOS | KCR | W 4-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 108 | 74 | 70 |
| 14 | 2008-04-08 | BOS | DET | W 5-0 | GS-7 ,W | 6.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 108 | 62 | 69 |
| 15 | 2009-09-15 | BOS | LAA | W 4-1 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 93 | 52 | 68 |
| 16 | 2008-07-07 | BOS | MIN | W 1-0 | GS-8 | 7.1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 108 | 71 | 68 |
| 17 | 2007-09-28 | BOS | MIN | W 5-2 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 119 | 77 | 68 |
| 18 | 2007-08-10 | BOS | BAL | L 5-6 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 113 | 71 | 68 |
| 19 | 2007-05-09 | BOS | TOR | W 9-3 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 108 | 70 | 68 |
| 20 | 2008-07-13 | BOS | BAL | W 2-1 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 115 | 68 | 66 |
| 21 | 2008-08-14 | BOS | TEX | W 10-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 115 | 66 | 65 |
| 22 | 2007-08-04 | BOS | SEA | W 4-3 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 113 | 76 | 65 |
| 23 | 2007-04-17 | BOS | TOR | L 1-2 | GS-6 ,L | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 105 | 68 | 65 |
| 24 | 2008-06-27 | BOS | HOU | W 6-1 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 87 | 54 | 64 |
| 25 | 2007-08-22 | BOS | TBD | L 1-2 | GS-6 ,L | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 111 | 67 | 64 |
| Rk | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc |
| 26 | 2008-07-22 | BOS | SEA | W 4-2 | GS-8 ,W | 7.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 99 | 61 | 63 |
| 27 | 2008-09-15 | BOS | TBR | W 13-5 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 101 | 62 | 62 |
| 28 | 2008-08-03 | BOS | OAK | W 5-2 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 105 | 68 | 62 |
| 29 | 2007-06-22 | BOS | SDP | W 2-1 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 126 | 81 | 62 |
| 30 | 2008-05-10 | BOS | MIN | W 5-2 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 96 | 63 | 61 |
| 31 | 2007-06-10 | BOS | ARI | L 1-5 | GS-6 ,L | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 120 | 78 | 61 |
| 32 | 2007-06-05 | BOS | OAK | L 0-2 | GS-7 ,L | 7.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 129 | 77 | 61 |
| 33 | 2008-05-17 (1) | BOS | MIL | W 5-3 | GS-7 ,W | 6.2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 103 | 66 | 60 |
| 34 | 2009-09-26 | BOS | NYY | L 0-3 | GS-7 ,L | 7.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 115 | 65 | 59 |
| 35 | 2008-07-02 | BOS | TBR | L 6-7 | GS-5 | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 101 | 55 | 59 |
| 36 | 2009-10-02 | BOS | CLE | W 6-2 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 104 | 66 | 58 |
| 37 | 2007-05-19 (1) | BOS | ATL | W 13-3 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 103 | 72 | 58 |
| 38 | 2008-03-25 | BOS | OAK | W 6-5 | GS-5 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 95 | 51 | 56 |
| 39 | 2007-09-14 | BOS | NYY | L 7-8 | GS-6 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 120 | 64 | 55 |
| 40 | 2009-06-02 | BOS | DET | W 5-1 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 96 | 61 | 54 |
| 41 | 2007-07-29 | BOS | TBD | L 2-5 | GS-7 ,L | 6.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 113 | 70 | 54 |
| 42 | 2008-09-03 | BOS | BAL | W 5-4 | GS-6 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 112 | 73 | 53 |
| 43 | 2008-05-05 | BOS | DET | W 6-3 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 60 | 52 |
| 44 | 2007-04-11 | BOS | SEA | L 0-3 | GS-7 ,L | 7.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 103 | 64 | 52 |
| 45 | 2007-07-19 | BOS | CHW | L 2-4 | GS-5 ,L | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 109 | 63 | 51 |
| 46 | 2007-04-27 | BOS | NYY | W 11-4 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 117 | 71 | 49 |
| 47 | 2008-08-19 | BOS | BAL | W 7-2 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 105 | 60 | 48 |
| 48 | 2008-04-18 | BOS | TEX | W 11-3 | GS-6 ,W | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 101 | 62 | 48 |
| 49 | 2008-05-27 | BOS | SEA | L 3-4 | GS-4 | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 65 | 46 | 46 |
| 50 | 2008-05-22 | BOS | KCR | W 11-8 | GS-6 ,W | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 118 | 67 | 46 |
| Rk | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc |
| 51 | 2007-09-22 | BOS | TBD | W 8-6 | GS-7 | 6.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 115 | 73 | 46 |
| 52 | 2008-09-28 (1) | BOS | NYY | L 2-6 | GS-4 ,L | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 73 | 46 | 45 |
| 53 | 2009-09-20 | BOS | BAL | W 9-3 | GS-6 ,W | 5.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 110 | 73 | 44 |
| 54 | 2009-05-22 | BOS | NYM | L 3-5 | GS-5 ,L | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 80 | 50 | 43 |
| 55 | 2008-08-24 | BOS | TOR | W 6-5 | GS-6 | 6.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 105 | 66 | 43 |
| 56 | 2007-04-22 | BOS | NYY | W 7-6 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 108 | 74 | 43 |
| 57 | 2010-05-27 | BOS | KCR | L 3-4 | GS-5 ,L | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 112 | 60 | 41 |
| 58 | 2009-05-27 | BOS | MIN | L 2-4 | GS-5 ,L | 5.0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 102 | 63 | 40 |
| 59 | 2008-09-09 | BOS | TBR | L 4-5 | GS-5 | 5.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 102 | 61 | 40 |
| 60 | 2007-08-28 | BOS | NYY | L 3-5 | GS-7 ,L | 6.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 110 | 62 | 40 |
| 61 | 2010-05-06 | BOS | LAA | W 11-6 | GS-6 ,W | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 92 | 58 | 38 |
| 62 | 2007-07-14 | BOS | TOR | W 9-4 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 110 | 69 | 38 |
| 63 | 2009-06-07 | BOS | TEX | L 3-6 | GS-6 ,L | 5.2 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 102 | 71 | 37 |
| 64 | 2008-04-13 | BOS | NYY | W 8-5 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 116 | 62 | 37 |
| 65 | 2009-04-09 | BOS | TBR | L 3-4 | GS-6 ,L | 5.1 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 100 | 60 | 36 |
| 66 | 2007-05-25 | BOS | TEX | W 10-6 | GS-5 ,W | 5.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 52 | 36 |
| 67 | 2009-06-13 | BOS | PHI | W 11-6 | GS-4 | 4.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 91 | 61 | 34 |
| 68 | 2007-08-15 | BOS | TBD | L 5-6 | GS-6 ,L | 6.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 101 | 62 | 34 |
| 69 | 2008-07-28 | BOS | LAA | L 5-7 | GS-5 ,L | 5.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 91 | 59 | 30 |
| 70 | 2007-07-08 | BOS | DET | L 5-6 | GS-5 ,L | 5.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 90 | 58 | 26 |
| 71 | 2010-05-01 | BOS | BAL | L 9-12 | GS-5 ,L | 4.2 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 95 | 57 | 25 |
| 72 | 2007-05-30 | BOS | CLE | L 4-8 | GS-6 ,L | 5.2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 106 | 73 | 25 |
| 73 | 2007-05-03 | BOS | SEA | W 8-7 | GS-5 | 5.0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 96 | 56 | 25 |
| 74 | 2007-09-03 | BOS | TOR | W 13-10 | GS-6 ,W | 5.1 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 98 | 69 | 22 |
| 75 | 2009-04-14 | BOS | OAK | L 5-6 | GS-1 | 1.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 22 | 21 |
| Rk | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc |
| 76 | 2009-06-19 | BOS | ATL | L 2-8 | GS-4 ,L | 4.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 39 | 20 |
| 77 | 2010-05-17 | BOS | NYY | L 9-11 | GS-5 | 4.2 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 105 | 63 | 18 |
| 78 | 2007-09-08 | BOS | BAL | L 5-11 | GS-3 ,L | 2.2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 44 | 13 |
| 79 | 2008-06-21 | BOS | STL | L 3-9 | GS-1 ,L | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 24 | 11 |
His most recent start wasn't all that bad, near the middle of the pack at #57 overall. The start before that was #3 all time. Before that it was his 3rd-worst at #77. Before that he tied for his 6th best. Before that he had two lousy starts at #71 and #61.
This guy is all over the place, and that's troublesome. I would think that Terry Francona would rather know for sure if Daisuke were going to pitch only 5 innings. that way he could have Tim Wakefield ready all the time. The fact that he can throw lots of stinkers with the occasional gem must be infuriating for Red Sox management and fans.
June 2nd, 2010 at 10:35 am
My guess is he will lower his walks but give up a ton of hits to the free-swinging A's
June 2nd, 2010 at 11:00 am
My guess is that the A's are just the kind of team that Dice-K does best against -- the type whose batters thinks that the terms "strike zone" and "accuracy" should never be used in the same breath.
June 2nd, 2010 at 11:56 am
I looked at two other pitchers with a similar number of career starts. Matsuzaka has an average game score of 52.3 with a standard deviation of 17.9. Jair Jurrjens has an avg GS of 53.5 with a standard deviation of 14.5. John Lannan has an avg GS of 49.1 with a standard deviation of 16.0. So if I'm interpreting that correctly, Matsuzaka does indeed have wider range of outcomes. (Statisticians, please inform me if I've misused standard deviation.) But perhaps some of that is because he is more of a strikeout pitcher than Jurrjens and Lannan, and Ks are an element of Game Score.
June 2nd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
And they all cost $100 million, right?
June 2nd, 2010 at 10:42 pm
[...] ranks Matsuzaka’s 79 major league starts by Game Score. His six 2010 starts are ranked: 71, 61, 6, [...]