Mo Quality Pitching.
Posted by Raphy on May 11, 2008
Yesterday, Mariano Rivera set a (post 1956 and probably all time) record of sorts. Rivera has started the 2008 season with 14 consecutive appearances of at least one inning each without allowing more than one base runner in any of them. Rivera and Joakim Soria of KC each started the season with 13 such games tying John Franco's record from 1992. However, Joakim had a bout of wildness on May 8th and Rivera alone set the new record. Here's the list.
Rivera's overall streak for such games is also at 14 (He gave up 3 runs in his last regular season appearance in 2008 2007.) Meanwhile 2 pitchers (Soria and Troy Percival) both had streaks of 15 games (dating back to last season) snapped on May 8th. The overall record is 19, set by Armondo Benitez in 2004 and tied by Rafael Soriano last year. Here is that list.
In addition to not allowing more than one base runner in any of his appearances, Rivera has also not allowed any runs. The record for consecutive appearances of any length without a run and less than one base runner to start a season is 16 by Tony Fossas in 1995. The record for such a streak at any point during the season is 25 by Dan Plesac in 2003. Eric Gagne has the longest such streak while averaging at least one inning per appearance.
Obviously, these lists are geared to today's style of bullpen usage. If you need any further confirmation of this (and I don't know why you would), here is the list of pitchers with the most appearances in a season in which they threw at least one inning and allowed no more than 1 base runner and 0 runs. 5 of the top 8 are from last season.
May 11th, 2008 at 9:16 am
... I think you mean his last appearance of 2007.
May 11th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Yes I did. I've corrected it. Thank you cheeseboy10000.
May 11th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Whenever the subject of best relief performances comes up, I revisit the question of what should qualify a reliever for the Hall of Fame. When I go through these lists, I find a lot of pitchers who did something well for a short period of time but who are probably unknown -- certainly not potential immortals -- to many fans. Tony Fossas?
On these lists I find Dennis Eckersley, probably HofF John Smoltz, possible HofF'ers Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, Lee Smith (possible depending on how they finish their careers or are seen [Smith] compared to others). Not many names whose great work lasted much longer than a streak. . . . So what -- if not effectiveness streaks -- qualifies a reliever for the Hall? What should Mariano have to measure up to?
May 12th, 2008 at 10:22 am
I have no empirical statistics to back this up, but I wonder if relievers have a problem being consistently excellent because of the nature of what they do. Here are my unscientific hypotheses:
1. Relievers typically have to get by on a specialty pitch (screwball, splitter, etc.) that puts more stress on the elbow or shoulder than a fastball/changeup/curve ball.
2. The stress of throwing short bursts in pressure situations 3-5 days/week is greater on the arm than throwing 9 innings (well, 5 innings now) every 5 days.
3. Relievers will throw a greater percentage of pitches in "pressure" or "stress" situations and those situations put more stress on the shoulder and elbow than the typical early to mid-inning situation.
About 10 years ago there was an interest in pitch counts to combat arm injuries. That has led to a generation of starting pitchers who can't go more than 6 innings (by and large) because they were taught in the minor leagues to not throw more than 100 pitches. My theory is that the problem is not the number of pitches, but the number or ratio of higher stress pitches, such as splitters, sliders and screwballs.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
I think relievers historically have not been consistently excellent simply because they are not great pitchers. Most relievers have been failed starters. This is starting to change, in that relievers are now being developed in the minors and in college, but the usual reason they are made relievers is probably still the same: They don't have the repertoire of pitches to be effective starters. Relievers have something which can make them effective for a brief period, be it one great pitch, or a deceptive delivery, but eventually enough exposure will render them less able to fool hitters.
Do most relievers throw "specialty" pitches, more than starters do? I don't think that is true. Who throws a screwball these days? Are splitters or sliders any more common among relievers than starters? Mariano Rivera has made a living with his cutter, not too far from a slider, and he hasn't burned out. (Not that one data point is evidence of much.)
May 12th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Tony Fossas was a lefty specialist facing just one guy much of the time, so his streak obviously isn't as impressive.
May 13th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Interesting analyses, mmayes and Johnny.
If career win shares were used as a rough indicator of reliever accomplishment, we have the hybrids: Eckersley 300ws and Smoltz 288ws (as of May 6). Well, Wilhelm (256ws, 52 starts) and Gossage (223 ws, 37 starts) weren't exclusively relievers, either.
And Fingers (188ws) and Sutter (168ws). By comparison, Mariano Rivera is at 188 (as of May 6). But then there's Lee Smith (198) to consider. . . . Obviously, win shares isn't a perfect yardstick, but if Mariano gets over 200 as exclusively a reliever, that gives him the presumption of Hall-qualified, IMO.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Rivera's streak was broken this evening in his second inning of work in an 11 inning game. I suppose he still has a streak going of not allowing more than one baserunner in his first inning of work of 15 appearances. I imagine this would be a difficult, if not impossible thing to compare with other similar streaks. Also, it should be noted that this was not a save opportunity, so he also has a phenomenal streak of effectiveness in save opportunities.
Point being, Mo got an L tonight, but he's still friggin good. A certain Hall of Famer, and probably the greatest reliever of all time.