49 Responses to “Three True Outcomes: Players with the highest fraction of HR + walks + strikeouts”

1. Troy Toth Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 10:58 am

   I'm new to visiting here and maybe I'm missing something, but when I add HR's, BB's and K's and divide by plate appearances I don't see anyone at 60%. For instance, with Jim Thome I add 593 HR +1696 BB + 2415 K = 4704 / 9897 PA = .475. I didn't check everyone, but did an eyeball test on several others and am wondering if you meant 40% or some other number??? Or am I misinterpreting something?

2. Andy Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 11:02 am

   Troy, I concur with your findings but have yet to figure out the mistake in my formula.

3. Andy Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 11:26 am

   I made some kind of error in my original post...could figure it out...but what's posted now is correct. Thanks, Troy.

4. Whiz Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 12:11 pm

   "Thanks to reader Doug N., I figured out how to generate this list with the PI."

   And the secret is? I seem to remember something like this being discussed in the comments a while back, but can you refresh my memory on how to do it?

5. Andy Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 12:13 pm

   I'll post it once I've gotten confirmation that it's OK to do so.

6. Neil L. Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 12:46 pm

   @5
   Andy, ???

   Is there some PI voodoo that only BRef bloggers have access to?

7. Johnny Twisto Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 12:58 pm

   A large fraction of these guys are active, suggesting that the Three True Outcomes feat is hard to maintain at the tail end of a career

   I think it mostly suggests that TTO have been much higher in recent years.

8. stan cook Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 1:07 pm

   Didn't Bill James refer to homering and walking as "old man's skills"?

9. Keith Karcher Says:
   June 22nd, 2011 at 1:07 pm

   I think your final list may be missing Ruben Rivera [ (185 BB + 510 K + 64 HR) / 1818 PA = 41.7%] and Jon Nunnally [ (146 BB + 239 K + 42 HR) / 1048 PA = 40.7%].

10. Andy Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 1:38 pm

    I know Nunnally was the next guy after I cut the list off. Don't know about Rivera.

11. Jay Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 1:51 pm

    Looks like Ruben Rivera is still classified as an active player for whatever reason.

    I like the flip side, guys who put the ball in play all the time. Lloyd Waner is high on that list.

12. Andy Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 1:59 pm

    I think Rivera is not listed as retired, and that's why he didn't show up. He is currently in the Mexican league. I think Sean only marks players as retired when they officially announce retirement or are otherwise clearly very unlikely to play in the majors again (meaning not playing professional ball in any league such as the Mexican League or Northern League.)

13. tomlaw Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:17 pm

    Andy, I'd also like to know how the search was done.

14. Neil L. Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:19 pm

    Anybody think of a good name for (HR+BB+K)/PA? Old age index? No-defense-required percentage? BNIP (Ball Not in Play) percentage? 🙂

15. Dukeofflatbush Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:22 pm

    @ Andy, to lazt to check, but who is owns the highest percent?
    My guess would be Reynolds.

16. Andy Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:24 pm

    Of the 25 guys on the first list, it's Dean Chance. Among non-pitchers on that list, it's Jack Cust.

    I will post about the method if I am allowed. I am waiting on feedback regarding that.

17. Dukeofflatbush Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:24 pm

    Yeah, Reynolds is hovering just below 50%, I'm guessing that is highest.
    Andy, Can you add HBP to the query?

18. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:27 pm

    I'm not sure what B-R's rules are for marking players retired, but I think anyone who hasn't played this season doesn't show up as active. This leads to the unfortunate omission of Johan Santana from active pitching leaders.

19. Andy Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:29 pm

    I'm pretty sure Sean just manually makes players retired based on what they've announced and what they're doing.

20. wlcmlc Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:41 pm

    Surprised Bonds is not on the list. He is close though at 38.5%

21. Andy Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:46 pm

    I just did league-wide calculations and JT is right that it's getting more common.

    In 2010, the percentage of all HR+BB+K out of PAs was 29.5%.

    Going back:

    2000: 29.0%
    1990: 25.6%
    1980: 22.6%
    1970: 26.4%
    1960: 24.6%
    1950: 22.4%
    1940: 19.7%
    1930: 17.6%
    1920: 15.5%
    1910: 13.1%

    The changes are due to increasing HR and K rates. The BB walk has remained fairly constant over the last 100 years, at least by comparison.

22. Dr. Doom Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 2:46 pm

    I know it's not normally included, but I can't help by think that HBP belongs in this category. It also only involves the pitcher and the batter. I wonder if it would make a difference as to adding someone onto the list.

23. jmac_66 Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 3:16 pm

    Cust also the single season TTO leader among batters who qualified for the batting title--here's the list of those that broke the 50% barrier in a given season:
    Jack Cust 2007 0.582
    Mark McGwire 1998 0.568
    Jack Clark 1987 0.556
    Ryan Howard 2007 0.545
    Rob Deer 1991 0.536
    Jim Thome 2001 0.536
    Rob Deer 1987 0.530
    Jim Thome 1999 0.526
    Rob Deer 1986 0.520
    Barry Bonds 2001 0.517
    Barry Bonds 2004 0.515
    Mark McGwire 1999 0.513
    Adam Dunn 2004 0.512
    Jack Clark 1989 0.511
    Mark McGwire 1996 0.511
    Jim Thome 2002 0.511
    Adam Dunn 2006 0.507
    Jay Buhner 1997 0.502

24. Morten Jonsson Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 3:32 pm

    No one noticed it at the time, but Dave Nicholson pointed the way to the future. He came twenty years too early. It was left to Rob Deer to blaze the path that others would follow. Without them, would there be a Russell Branyan, a Jack Cust, a Carlos Pena? If Rob Deer is the Columbus of modern baseball, Dave Nicholson is the Leif Ericson--he discovered the New World, but no one noticed. I hope someday that baseball acknowledges its debt to those brave pioneers.

25. Richard Chester Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 3:39 pm

    @24
    That was a really clever analogy.

26. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    Anyone want to calculate a TTO+ based on league averages? Babe Ruth probably rates very high in TTO+, even if his raw % isn't as high as modern players. Of course, characterizing him as a TTO player seems almost vulgar.

27. Andy Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 4:17 pm

    JT see #21

28. Doug Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 4:47 pm

    @14.

    Name for TTO?

    How about BNIPF - Balls Not In Play Frequency = HR + BB + K / PA

    You could then do a derivative OBABNIP = On Base Average on Balls Not in Play = HR + BB / HR + BB + K . Guys like Dimaggio would be close to 1. Guys like Rob Deer - not so much.

29. Hartvig Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    Any list of offensive performance that contains both Rob Deer and Sandy Koufax just makes me so happy. Morton's analogy was perfect.

30. Doug Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 5:01 pm

    @24.

    Don't forget Don Lock.

    Contemporary of Nicholson. Similar HR rate, a bit lower walk and strikeout rates.

31. Wine Curmudgeon Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 6:01 pm

    It's difficult to believe that Dave Kingman didn't make this list, but he comes up at 38 1/2 percent.

32. Neil L. Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 7:29 pm

    @28
    Doug, love it!

    Balls Not In Play Frequency has a nice ring to it. Can we patent this newstat?

    Doug, a Blue Jays aside. How about Bautista's catch today?

33. Steve Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 7:44 pm

    31 Wow,pretty shocking.He didn't walk enough?

34. Neil L. Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 7:51 pm

    @28 @32
    Sorry, Doug, may have you confused with Doug H regarding the Blue Jays comment.

    Not sure if you are Doug N. or Doug H.

35. Dukeofflatbush Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 9:03 pm

    @23 JMAC_66

    You forgot Mark Reynolds on your list. He has done it every season he has played.

36. jmac_66 Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 9:13 pm

    sorry, Duke--I compiled the list in 2007--I have to update it. The other thing to notice about the list in #23 is that players get there by very different ways: Bonds had relatively low K rates, but ungodly BB & HR rates; Rob Deer was just the opposite--unimpressive BB rates, but enough K's to put him on the list. Guys like McGwire and Thome are "good" (if that's the right word) at all 3 aspects

37. jmac_66 Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 9:34 pm

    evolution of highest single season TTO (qualified for batting title) since 1955:
    Eddie Mathews 1955 0.403
    Mickey Mantle 1957 0.409
    Mickey Mantle 1958 0.445
    Mickey Mantle 1961 0.452
    Mickey Mantle 1962 0.458
    Jimmy Wynn 1969 0.495
    Rob Deer 1986 0.520
    Jack Clark 1987 0.556
    Mark McGwire 1998 0.568
    Jack Cust 2007 0.582

    looks like Jimmy Wynn is an unsung TTO superstar

38. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 9:40 pm

    Actually, maybe a better version of TTO+ would be to scale each factor individually, since there are obviously lots more walks and Ks than homers.

39. Biff Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 9:45 pm

    @22

    I agree that he HBP should belong (lump them in with the walks). On the flip side you could also deduct those strikeouts the catcher doesn't field cleanly and in play which would involve the first baseman (2-3 putout).

    Whenever I see the TTO thing being mentioned it always makes me think of the early 90s Tigers teams. They were loaded with players who excelled with at least 2 if not all of these outcomes. Tettleton, Phillips, Deer, Fielder, Fryman, Inky, Whitaker. Both exciting and frustrating to watch.

40. Rich Says:
    June 22nd, 2011 at 11:02 pm

    @31 Kingman couldn't take a walk to save his life, so I would also assume that's what kept him out

41. Doug N. Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 12:46 am

    @34.

    Neil L, Thanks for the tip about Bautista's catch. Haven't seen it yet - I'll take a look.

42. Doug N. Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 12:48 am

    @37.

    Very cool, Jmac_66.

    Invent a stat, and have a progressive record history on the same day.

43. John Autin Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 1:24 am

    @18, JT re: players who meet the P-I "active" criterion:

    I don't think there's any rhyme or reason to it. Johan Santana doesn't qualify, but Kevin Millwood does (pitched last year, not this year). Several guys who haven't pitched since 2009 make the list. Maybe Sean needs to update the function.

44. Johnny Twisto Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 1:28 am

    Millwood has pitched in the minors this year, Santana hasn't. I don't know what others you looked at. I just know that Santana should appear on active leader lists, and it's misleading that he doesn't.

45. DaveKingman Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 4:40 am

    Dave Kingman? Harrumph.

    A poor man's.......... well, me.

46. DMV: Bryce Harper’s Monster Truck Is So Bryce Harper | Mr. Irrelevant, a D.C. Sports Blog by the Brothers Mottram Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 9:41 am

    [...] Mark Reynolds is one of the all-time “three true outcome” players. [BR Blog] [...]

47. tomlaw Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    I still want to know how to do this search!

48. Neil L. Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 2:05 pm

    @4 @5 @13 @47
    Tomlaw, Whiz's question kinda got lost in the weeds, didn't it?

    I believe Andy will be as good as his word and will outline how to do the search.

49. Andy Says:
    June 23rd, 2011 at 2:24 pm

    All I can say is it's being discussed internally now. I am not optimistic that this is going to be rolled out, though, because it's not proper use of the PI and poses some risk to the software.